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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 54.20 chg: +1.22 stop: 52.45

CAE is trying to rally again. The stock posted a 2.3% gain on Friday with volume about three times the norm. A strong rise on big volume is usually a bullish sign. We were close to abandoning CAE as a bullish candidate but we're willing to wait. Currently our plan is to go long on a breakout above resistance at $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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China Mobile - CHL - cls: 45.37 chg: +0.93 stop: 41.85 *new*

The rally in the Chinese markets was not lost on CHL. Shares of CHL rose another 2% and posted its sixth gain in a row. CHL is quickly approaching our target in the $46.50-47.00 range so we're not suggesting new positions at this time. We will adjust our stop loss to $41.85. FYI: More aggressive traders may want to aim higher (maybe the $50 region).

Picked on January 14 at $42.60
Change since picked: + 2.77
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 43.88 chg: -0.47 stop: 41.45

CMCSK suffered some profit taking on Friday after a week of gains. Volume came in pretty low, which is what we would want to see on a consolidation lower. If you're looking for a new entry point watch for a dip to or a bounce near the $43.00 level, which should be short-term support, bolstered by its rising 10-dma. Our target is the 2000-2001 highs. We'll plan an exit in the $46.00-46.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 42.00 chg: -0.34 stop: 40.44

News that HPQ continues to take marketshare from rival Dell was not enough to stop the profit taking HPQ. On Friday HPQ lost another 0.8% and posted its fourth decline in a row. The short-term technicals are turning bearish. However, traders bought the dip on Friday at the stock's six-month trendline of rising resistance. Aggressive traders may want to open long positions now. We suggest that most traders wait for a rebound past $42.25 or $42.50 before opening new plays. A new rally would make the recent consolidation look like a bull flag pattern. We do not want to hold over the February 20th earnings report. Our target is the $46.00 level.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.66 change: -0.15 stop: 32.95

Unfortunately, there are no surprises with MEDI's performance. We have been warning readers that MEDI is likely to dip back toward the $34.00 level. Broken resistance in the $33.75 region should act as new support. If you're looking for a new entry point consider buying a dip to or a bounce near the $34.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. FYI: Keep an eye on the BTK biotech index, which may be producing a bearish double-top pattern. We'd also watch the DRG Drug index, which is nearing resistance around its October highs. More conservative traders may want to put their stop loss at breakeven to reduce their risk and worry factor.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 70.74 chg: +1.66 stop: 68.75*new*

We are not suggesting new positions on PJC even though shares rebounded on Friday with a 2.4% gain. Bulls can be encouraged that there was no follow through on Thursday's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Our challenge now is time. PJC is due to report earnings on Wednesday morning, January 24th. We do not want to hold over the report so we plan to exit on Tuesday afternoon at the closing bell. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $68.75, which is just under Thursday's low. Our target is the $74.75-75.00 range.

Picked on January 10 at $69.45
Change since picked: + 1.29
Earnings Date 01/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 36.97 chg: -0.40 stop: 34.90

News that Bear Stearns had started coverage on RATE with "peer perform" rating failed to do anything for the stock price. Shares of RATE spent most of the day oscillating back and forth across the $37.00 level near its rising 50-dma. At the moment it looks like what had begun as a potential short squeeze has faltered. RATE spent several days struggling in the $38.75-39.00 region and now we're seeing some profit taking. Readers have a choice. You can look for a dip and bounce somewhere above the simple 200-dma (near $35.70) or wait for a new relative high (above $39.00) as new entry points. Don't forget that this is an aggressive, higher-risk play and we have a wide stop. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The most recent (December) data put short interest at more than 35% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: - 1.28
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 39.05 chg: -0.05 stop: 40.25

Shares of ANDE have been resilient. Friday morning the stock was downgraded from a "hold" to a "sell" yet traders bought the dip on Friday near $38.00 and its 100-dma and ANDE closed almost unchanged. We considered dropping ANDE as a bearish candidate since there has been a distinct lack of follow through on the early January breakdown. Plus, the stock's P&F chart looks relatively bullish. However, we are not willing to give up just yet since the consolidation over the last several days is beginning to look more and more like a bear flag pattern. We will continue to suggest a trigger to short the stock at $36.99. If triggered at $36.99 our target is the $33.00-30.00 range. More conservative traders may want to widen their trigger to something like $36.95, 36.90, 36.85 just to raise the odds that we are catching a real breakdown. FYI: Traders should note that ANDE can be a volatile stock at times and the latest (December) data put short interest at 7.2% of ANDE's 14.7 million-share float. That's not a very big float and the relatively high short interest raises the risk of a short squeeze. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 333 thousand

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Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 20.00 change: -0.20 stop: 20.75

Look out below! CMVT continued to sink on Friday and shares look poised to breakdown. We do not see any changes from our new play description from Thursday night so we're reposting it here:

Technology stocks are getting hit the hardest as investors lock in profits on the group's recent run up. One tech stock that was already under performing was CMVT. The stock has a bearish pattern of lower highs under its descending 200-dma. Furthermore the company seems to be hemorrhaging management as it deals with an investigation into its practice of back-dating options for executives. Shares of CMVT look poised to breakdown from its recent consolidation and fall under support at the $20.00 level. We're suggesting a trigger for shorts at $19.85. If triggered our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. Please note that this play might have an extra risk concerning the company's earnings report. The problem is we can't find one and we can't find when it is due to report next. History would suggest CMVT tends to report in March but we can't support that for 2007. Earnings reports are always a risk because there are too many variables and the stock could move sharply either direction on the news. We did find one source that said CMVT's subsidiaries VRNT and ULCM are due to report in March.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 48.96 chg: +1.18 stop: 50.55

Whoa! We were not expecting such a sharp rebound in SAFT. Friday saw shares close up almost 2.5%. We could not find any news that might account for SAFT's strength, especially following Thursday's bearish technical breakdown. The overall trend remains bearish so readers can watch for a failed rally near $50.00 as a new entry point for shorts. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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