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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 28.93 change: -0.15 stop: 27.39

The rally in coal stocks struggled on Monday. The sector appeared to follow the up and down in crude oil during Monday's session. Fortunately, traders bought the dip in ACI at $28.38. Readers can choose to buy the afternoon bounce or wait for additional strength before initiating new long positions. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting long positions with ACI above $28.50. Our target is the $32.50 level. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report so we only have a couple of weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the January sell-off.

Picked on January 21 at $29.08
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 02/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 thousand

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Cascade - CAE - close: 53.19 chg: -1.01 stop: 52.45

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on CAE. We are still waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $55.50 level. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 44.03 chg: +0.15 stop: 41.45

Volume continues to decline as CMCSK consolidates sideways. The lack of profit taking in the stock today is a show of relative strength. If you're looking for a new entry point watch for a dip to or a bounce near the $43.00 level, which should be short-term support, bolstered by its rising 10-dma. Our target is the 2000-2001 highs. We'll plan an exit in the $46.00-46.50 range. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report.

Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Change since picked: + 0.71
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Commscope - CTV - close: 30.93 change: -0.69 stop: 29.99

There was no follow through on CTV's bullish rebound from Friday. Instead shares came close to completely erasing Friday's gains. We did note that volume came in pretty low, which is what you would want to see in a consolidation for a stock trying to move higher. Currently we are waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $32.00 level. We are suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $32.05. If triggered our stop loss will be $29.99 and our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish. Plus, more conservative traders may want to put their stop at $30.49 under the most recent low.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 51.84 change: -0.57 stop: 50.79

GVA suffered some profit taking this morning but bulls stepped in to buy the dip near its 10-dma and above its 50-dma. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments and remain bullish but given the market's weakness today we reiterate our suggestion that conservative traders might want to wait for a rise past $53.00 or $53.15 before buying the stock. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: - 0.57
Earnings Date 02/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 42.02 chg: +0.02 stop: 40.44

Technology stocks led the decline today but shares of HPQ were resilient and bounced back from their lows near $41.42. The afternoon rebound is encouraging but we hesitate to open new positions at this time, especially with the NASDAQ poised to move lower. If you are looking for a new bullish position consider waiting for a rise past $42.25 or $42.50 as an entry point. A new rally would make the recent consolidation look like a bull flag pattern. We do not want to hold over the February 20th earnings report. Our target is the $46.00 level.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: - 0.18
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.54 change: -0.12 stop: 32.95

MEDI continues to drift lower toward support near the $34.00-33.75 region. If you're looking for a new entry point consider buying a dip to or a bounce near the $34.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. FYI: Keep an eye on the BTK biotech index, which may be producing a bearish double-top pattern. We'd also watch the DRG Drug index, which is nearing resistance around its October highs. More conservative traders may want to put their stop loss at breakeven to reduce their risk and worry factor.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 69.88 chg: -0.86 stop: 68.75

Tomorrow is our last day. PJC reports earnings on Wednesday morning so we plan to exit tomorrow at the closing bell. More conservative traders may want to exit tomorrow morning to reduce their risk given the market weakness today.

Picked on January 10 at $69.45
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 01/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 36.86 chg: -0.10 stop: 34.90

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments for RATE. Readers have a choice. You can look for a dip and bounce somewhere above the simple 200-dma (near $35.70) or wait for a new relative high (above $39.00) as new entry points. Don't forget that this is an aggressive, higher-risk play and we have a wide stop. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The most recent (December) data put short interest at more than 35% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report!

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: - 1.38
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 51.95 change: -0.35 stop: 50.95

A downgrade for Boeing (BA) this morning suppressed the defensive sector. Shares of RTN pulled back about 0.6% but failed to break its rising 50-dma. We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Readers can choose to buy the dip or look for a new relative high over $52.50. Our target is the $55.00-56.00 range. The old highs near $54 might offer some resistance. Our stop is at $50.95. More aggressive traders may want to put their stop under the $50.00 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 1st earnings report so we have less than two whole weeks.

Picked on January 21 at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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TJX Cos. - TJX - close: 29.95 change: -0.08 stop: 28.95

Retail stocks were a target for profit taking on Monday as the RLX index lost close to 1% and produced a bearish reversal with its bearish engulfing candlestick. The combination of selling pressure in retail and general market weakness pub the brakes on TJX's advance. The stock remains under resistance in the $30.00-30.15 region. We are suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $30.21. If triggered our target is the $32.50-33.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 32.31 change: -0.11 stop: 30.89

The market weakness on Monday also put the brakes on the bullish breakout in housing stocks. Bulls bought the initial dip in TOL near $32.00. We see the pull back as a new entry point although more conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past $32.75 before opening positions. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop loss. FYI: Be aware that rival homebuilder DHI is expected to report earnings on January 23rd and their results and guidance could have a big impact on the sector.

Picked on January 21 at $32.42
Change since picked: - 0.11
Earnings Date 03/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 19.94 change: -0.06 stop: 20.75

Our play in CMVT is now open. Tech stocks continued to be a target for profit taking. Shares of CMVT dipped to $19.78, which was enough to hit our trigger at $19.85. The close under round-number, psychological support at the $20.00 level is another bearish signal. If you missed the entry this morning we would still consider new positions now. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. Please note that this play might have an extra risk concerning the company's earnings report. The problem is we can't find one and we can't find when it is due to report next. History would suggest CMVT tends to report in March but we can't support that for 2007. Earnings reports are always a risk because there are too many variables and the stock could move sharply either direction on the news. We did find one source that said CMVT's subsidiaries VRNT and ULCM are due to report in March.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 47.81 chg: -1.15 stop: 50.55

SAFT lost 2.3% and almost completely erased Friday's bounce. Lack of follow through on Friday's big bounce is good news for the shorts! We are suggesting new shorts with SAFT under $48.50. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: - 0.68
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

China Mobile - CHL - cls: 47.10 chg: +1.73 stop: 41.85

Target surpassed. A strong day for the Chinese markets and news that CHL was buying a majority stake in a Pakistan's Paktel mobile carrier sent CHL to a 3.8% gain. The stock gapped open at $47.21 and hit an intraday high of $47.34. Our target was the $46.50-47.00 range so we would have exited at the open.

Picked on January 14 at $42.60
Change since picked: + 4.50
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million
 

Closed Short Plays

The Andersons Inc. - ANDE - cls: 40.53 chg: +1.48 stop: 40.25

We are giving up on ANDE as a bearish candidate. The stock never produced any sort of follow through on the early January breakdown. It was our plan to short the stock under $37.00 (trigger 36.99). The stock got close but never hit our trigger. Today's rally (+3.7%) on strong volume back above the $40.00 level looks like a sign that the bulls have regained control for now.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 333 thousand
 

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