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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 29.86 change: +0.93 stop: 27.39

The market rally and strength in energy stocks helped ACI turned in a strong session. The stock rose 3.2% and on relatively strong volume. The technical indicators continue to look bullish and the stock is now challenging potential resistance at the $30.00 level. Our target is the $32.50 level. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report so we only have a couple of weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the January sell-off.

Picked on January 21 at $29.08
Change since picked: + 0.78
Earnings Date 02/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Cascade - CAE - close: 53.86 chg: +0.67 stop: 52.45

CAE continues to consolidate sideways between $51 and $55.50. The stock's trading range has narrowed a bit over the last several days and that might suggest a breakout (either direction) soon. We are still waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $55.50 level. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 43.77 chg: -0.26 stop: 41.45

CMCSK failed to participate in the market's bounce on Tuesday. Yet overall the trend remains very bullish. We would look for a dip near its 10-dma (around $43.35) or near the $43.00 level as a new entry point to go long - just remember that we plan to exit before the February 1st earnings report. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops a bit. Our target is the 2000-2001 highs. We'll plan an exit in the $46.00-46.50 range.

Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Commscope - CTV - close: 31.60 change: +0.67 stop: 29.99

CTV displayed some relative strength with a 2.1% bounce on Tuesday. More aggressive traders might want to consider bullish positions. We are still waiting for a breakout over resistance near $32.00. We are suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $32.05. If triggered our stop loss will be $29.99 and our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish. Plus, more conservative traders may want to put their stop at $30.49 under the most recent low.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 53.10 change: +1.26 stop: 50.79

Building-related stocks were generally higher on Tuesday. Shares of GVA soared to an intraday high of $54.07 before pulling back to close under its simple 100-dma. GVA still managed to post a +2.4% gain. The rally past $53.00 is a new entry point to go long and we'd also consider new long positions on a dip near $52.50-52.00. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 0.69
Earnings Date 02/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 42.31 chg: +0.29 stop: 40.59*new*

Tuesday's bounce in shares of HPQ looks like a new entry point to go long the stock. However, more conservative traders may want to tighten their stop toward $41.00 or the recent lows. We are inching up our stop loss to $40.59, which is just under technical support at the rising 50-dma. We do not want to hold over the February 20th earnings report. Our target is the $46.00 level.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.46 change: -0.08 stop: 33.45 *new*

We have been warning readers to expect a dip in MEDI towards the $34.00 level, which should be support. However, today's lack of participation in the market's bounce casts a more bearish shadow over MEDI. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $33.45. Wait for a bounce (anywhere above $33.75) before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. FYI: We've also suggested that readers keep an eye on the BTK biotech index. Today's weakness in the BTK is not a good sign and suggests that the sector is close to performing a bearish double-top pattern. More conservative traders may want to put their stop loss at breakeven to reduce their risk and worry factor.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 0.48
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 37.08 chg: +0.22 stop: 35.49*new*

The recent consolidation in RATE might be over. Traders bought the dip at $36.41 and volume really improved during the afternoon rally. Overall volume remains weak. Aggressive traders might want to consider new positions now and we would probably use a tighter stop loss. Speaking of stop losses we're going to adjust ours to $35.49, which is just under the simple 200-dma. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The most recent (December) data put short interest at more than 35% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report!

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: - 1.17
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 53.18 change: +1.23 stop: 50.95

Defensive stocks were a bright spot in the market today. The DFI index rose just over 2%. Shares of RTN out performed its peers with a 2.3% gain on above average volume. The breakout over the $52.50 level is also a positive sign. Chart readers will notice that the daily chart's MACD indicator is super close to a new buy signal. A dip back towards $52.50 could be used as a new entry point if you don't want to chase it here. Our target is the $55.00-56.00 range. The old highs near $54 might offer some resistance. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss towards the $51.25-51.40 region. We do not want to hold over the February 1st earnings report so we have less than two whole weeks.

Picked on January 21 at $52.30
Change since picked: + 0.88
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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TJX Cos. - TJX - close: 29.84 change: -0.11 stop: 28.95

The retail sector appeared to be sleeping today. Retail stocks failed to rally with the market strength and they failed to sell-off on the big rebound in crude oil. We would keep a close watch on crude oil as rising oil is likely to put pressure on the retailers. Currently we're waiting for a stronger breakout in TJX. The stock remains under resistance in the $30.00-30.15 region. We are suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $30.21. If triggered our target is the $32.50-33.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 33.64 change: +1.33 stop: 30.89

Housing stocks were strong today. Investors responded warmly to the DHI earnings report this morning. TOL got an extra boost after being upgraded by Goldman Sachs. Shares of TOL hit an intraday high of $34.36 before paring its gains and closing with a 4.1% gain. Volume on TOL's rally today was strong, which is a bullish sign. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on January 21 at $32.42
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 03/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 20.03 change: +0.09 stop: 20.75

We are a little surprised by any strength in CMVT following some negative comments and earnings news in the communication sector (Alacatel-Lucent and Tellabs). We did notice that CMVT's strength failed early this morning and the session looks like a failed rally under technical resistance at its 50-dma. We would use the move as a new entry point for shorts but more conservative traders might want to tighten their stops or wait for a new decline under $19.85 before opening positions. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. Please note that this play might have an extra risk concerning the company's earnings report. The problem is we can't find one and we can't find when it is due to report next. History would suggest CMVT tends to report in March but we can't support that for 2007. Earnings reports are always a risk because there are too many variables and the stock could move sharply either direction on the news. We did find one source that said CMVT's subsidiaries VRNT and ULCM are due to report in March.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: + 0.18
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 48.53 chg: +0.72 stop: 50.05*new*

It looks like SAFT is still trying to bounce. Yet shares remain in a six-week bearish channel on top of breaking down below significant support a few days ago. Watch for a failed rally from current levels or under $49.40-49.50 as a new entry point. Please note that we are adjusting our stop loss to $50.05. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Piper Jaffray - PJC - close: 70.99 chg: +1.11 stop: 68.75

Time has run out. PJC is due to report earnings tomorrow morning. Wall Street is expecting the company to deliver earnings of 70 cents per share. We do not want to hold over the announcement and it was our plan to exit tonight at the closing bell.

Picked on January 10 at $69.45
Change since picked: + 1.54
Earnings Date 01/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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