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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 30.00 change: +0.14 stop: 27.75 *new*

It looks like coal stocks were ignored on Wednesday. Shares of ACI and many of its peers barely moved. Overall the stock is still poised to move higher but readers may want to wait for a dip back towards $29.00 or a new rise past $30.10 before considering new long positions. Our target is the $32.50 level. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $27.75. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report so we only have a couple of weeks. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the January sell-off.

Picked on January 21 at $29.08
Change since picked: + 0.92
Earnings Date 02/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Cascade - CAE - close: 54.27 chg: +0.41 stop: 52.45

The bulls might slowly be gaining the upper hand in CAE. The intraday lows seem to be getting higher, which tends to be a positive sign. We are still waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $55.50 level. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 44.00 chg: +0.23 stop: 41.45

Shares of CMCSK posted a 0.5% gain but closed off its highs of the session. We remain bullish on the stock and readers can use a dip near its rising 10-dma as a new entry point to go long. Remember that we plan to exit before the February 1st earnings report. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops a bit. Our target is the 2000-2001 highs. We'll plan an exit in the $46.00-46.50 range.

Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Commscope - CTV - close: 32.08 change: +0.48 stop: 29.99

Tech stocks led the rally on Wednesday and that helped CTV breakout over resistance at the $32.00 level. The play is now open after CTV hit our trigger to buy it at $32.05. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish. Plus, more conservative traders may want to put their stop at $30.49 under the most recent low.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 53.52 change: +0.42 stop: 50.79

A bullish tone for the market fueled another day of gains for GVA, which rose 0.79% after traders bought the dip near $52.30 and its rising 10-dma. We remain bullish here and don't see any big changes from our previous comments. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 1.11
Earnings Date 02/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Hewlett Packard - HPQ - close: 42.39 chg: +0.08 stop: 40.59

Hardware stocks were a bright spot in the market today with the GHA index rising 2.2%. Unfortunately, HPQ did not participate. The stock closed off its highs and failed to breakout over the 10-dma. The overall trend is bullish but short-term the stock seems to be struggling. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops even further. We do not want to hold over the February 20th earnings report. Our target is the $46.00 level.

Picked on January 07 at $42.20
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 02/20/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 13.1 million

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MedImmune - MEDI - close: 34.71 change: +0.25 stop: 33.45

A bounce in the biotech sector helped MEDI post a 0.7% gain but the stock remains under its simple 10-dma and a very short-term trend of lower highs. We would not consider new positions at this time but we'll watch for a bounce near $34. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range.

Picked on January 05 at $33.98 *gap open entry*
Change since picked: + 0.73
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 38.12 chg: +1.04 stop: 35.49

The influential financial sectors turned higher on Wednesday with the BKX index breaking out above resistance from a three-week consolidation and the BIX index rebounding back above its 50-dma. The sector strength boosted the rebound in RATE, which rose 2.8% and closed back above its own 50-dma. This move looks like a new entry point. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The most recent (December) data put short interest at more than 35% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report!

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 52.77 change: -0.41 stop: 50.95

Traders were ready to buy the dip in RTN on Wednesday and they did so twice near $52.40. The afternoon rebound looks like a new bullish entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $55.00-56.00 range. The old highs near $54 might offer some resistance. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss towards the $51.25-51.40 region. We do not want to hold over the February 1st earnings report so we do not have much time.

Picked on January 21 at $52.30
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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TJX Cos. - TJX - close: 30.04 change: +0.20 stop: 28.95

Be careful here! TJX produced an intraday rally to $30.24, which was a new all-time high, but the stock retreated from its highs and closed back near the $30.00 level, where it has been struggling with resistance. We have been suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $30.21 so the play is now open. However, we would wait for a bounce from the $30.00 region back above $30.20 before considering new positions. Our target is the $32.50-33.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.

Picked on January 24 at $30.21
Change since picked: - 0.17
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 34.19 change: +0.55 stop: 30.89

The homebuilders continued to rally and shares of TOL bounced from an intraday low near $33 to close near a new relative high. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on January 21 at $32.42
Change since picked: + 1.77
Earnings Date 03/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 20.04 change: +0.01 stop: 20.75

You might have noticed that tech stocks led the rally today. Thankfully shares of CMVT failed to notice. The stock traded in a narrow range so it's hard to say much about it but it looks like shares produced another failed rally under its 10-dma and 50-dma. We remain bearish here but would turn defensive given the market's show of strength today. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops or wait for a new decline under $19.85 before opening positions. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. Please note that this play might have an extra risk concerning the company's earnings report. The problem is we can't find one and we can't find when it is due to report next. History would suggest CMVT tends to report in March but we can't support that for 2007. Earnings reports are always a risk because there are too many variables and the stock could move sharply either direction on the news. We did find one source that said CMVT's subsidiaries VRNT and ULCM are due to report in March.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 48.49 chg: -0.04 stop: 50.05

The bounce in SAFT also struggled today in spite of the market's strength. That's good news for the bears as SAFT remains inside its bearish channel lower. Today's move could be the failed rally entry point we've been looking for. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

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Closed Short Plays

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