Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 29.31 change: +0.51 stop: 27.99
The markets did not move much on Monday and neither did coal stocks. ACI tried to rally this morning but eventually turned lower. We are quickly running out of time due to ACI's upcoming earnings report on February 2nd. We plan to exit on Thursday, February 1st at the closing bell to avoid holding over the announcement. We hesitate to suggest new positions given our lack of time. FYI: We did notice that coal producer FDG appears to be breaking out from under its consolidation near the $21.80 level. Readers might want to check it out as FDG nears its long-term trendline of resistance.
Picked on January 21 at $29.08
Anadarko Petrol. - APC - close: 42.05 change: +0.13 stop: 41.75
A 2% decline in crude oil knocked out any support for the energy sector. Shares of APC saw an early rally this morning but closed almost unchanged near the $42 level. If the stock doesn't show some relative strength tomorrow we're going to drop it early. Currently we're waiting for a breakout over the $44.00 level. Our suggested trigger is $44.05. More aggressive traders might want to consider jumping the gun and opening positions early with a rise past $43.00. Don't forget that we plan to exit ahead of the February 5th earnings report.
Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Cascade - CAE - close: 53.50 chg: -0.01 stop: 52.45
We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on CAE. Currently we are waiting for a breakout over resistance at $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.
Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 43.13 chg: +0.61 stop: 41.75
We only have two days left before the company reports earnings! Thankfully CMCSK is bouncing near the bottom of its rising channel. The stock rose 1.4% on Monday. We're not suggesting new positions as our current plan is to exit on Wednesday at the closing bell. CMCSK reports on Thursday. Our target was the $46.00 level. More conservative traders may want to exit early!
Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Commscope - CTV - close: 32.20 change: -0.29 stop: 29.99
The trading in CTV on Monday mirrored the action in the NASDAQ. If you are feeling optimistic then bulls can be encouraged by the afternoon bounce, which was above the simple 10-dma, and can use the bounce as a new entry point. More conservative traders might want to consider a tighter stop loss. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.
Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 31.80 change: -0.14 stop: 30.59
In the ACI update above we reported that coal stocks didn't move much on Monday. That holds true with FCL as well although shares of FCL did hit an intraday high of $32.49. That means the play is now open since we suggested a trigger to buy the stock at $32.11. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range. We would still buy the afternoon dip but if you have any patience consider waiting for a further dip into the $31.50-31.40 region as a more attractive entry point. Keep a wary eye on the 50-dma near $33.60 as potential resistance. Aggressive traders might want to put their stop under $30.00. We are going to set our stop at $30.59, which is under last week's low. We do not want to hold over the February 7th earnings report (still unconfirmed).
Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 53.15 change: +0.78 stop: 50.79
Shares of GVA are rebounding on cue. The stock rose 1.48% and closed right on its simple 100-dma. More conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop near $51.50. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.
Picked on January 21 at $52.41
PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 23.50 change: +0.26 stop: 20.99
PSPT continues to show relative strength with another 1.1% gain and another all-time high. Volume picked up on today's gain, which is a positive sign. We would still consider new positions here or on a dip back toward $23.00 (actually anywhere above $22.00). Broken resistance in the $22.00-22.50 region should now offer new support. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report. FYI: More conservative traders might consider a tighter stop under $21.50 or under $22.00.
Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 38.15 chg: +0.25 stop: 35.95
The major averages failed to make any progress today and that left RATE consolidating sideways. The stock did post a new higher low if you're feeling optimistic and shares still look poised to move higher. Readers might want to wait for a rise past $39.00 or maybe $38.40 before opening new long positions. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: The most recent (December) data put short interest at more than 35% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float. We do not want to hold over the early February earnings report!
Picked on January 11 at $38.25
TJX Cos. - TJX - close: 29.39 change: -0.11 stop: 28.95
Caution! Lack of a bounce in TJX today is not a good sign for the bulls. Shares spent the whole day trading sideways in a narrow range but the intraday chart looks like the stock wants to head lower. More conservative traders may want to exit early to limit any losses. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $32.50-33.00 range. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.
Picked on January 24 at $30.21
Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 32.43 change: -0.00 stop: 30.89
Hmm.... as a sector the homebuilders managed a minor bounce on Monday but TOL failed to participate and closed off its best levels of the session to end the day unchanged. This looks like a show of relative weakness and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops! Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.
Picked on January 21 at $32.42
Short Play Updates
Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 19.85 change: +0.08 stop: 20.51
The month-long trend in CMVT is bearish but the stock is not seeing any sort of follow through lower. After considering this lack of follow through more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops a bit. Currently CMVT is challenging technical resistance at its 10-dma and 50-dma in the $20.00-20.15 region. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. Please note that this play might have an extra risk concerning the company's earnings report. The problem is we can't find one and we can't find when it is due to report next. History would suggest CMVT tends to report in March but we can't support that for 2007. Earnings reports are always a risk because there are too many variables and the stock could move sharply either direction on the news. We did find one source that said CMVT's subsidiaries VRNT and ULCM are due to report in March.
Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 47.42 chg: +0.04 stop: 50.05
Shares of SAFT spent Monday's session consolidating sideways in a relatively narrow range. We do not see any changes from our weekend update. We would only consider new short positions on a failed rally under $48.75. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward the $49.00 region. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (December) data put short interest at 7% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.20 change: -0.60 stop: 40.35
Our new bearish play in TDY is off to a decent start with a 1.5% decline on very strong volume. Today's move would appear to confirm the breakdown under support at the stock's simple 200-dma. We do not see any changes from our weekend play description. We are suggesting shorts with TDY under $38.40. There might be potential support at the top of its July 2006 gap near $35.85 but we're going to aim for the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.
Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays