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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 29.80 change: +0.79 stop: 27.99

ACI turned in a strong session rising more than 2.7%. Unfortunately, volume came in below average so it's hard to put that much confidence behind the move. If we had more time traders might be planning new positions now or on a breakout over $30.00. Currently we only have a couple of days left. We plan to exit on Thursday, February 1st at the closing bell to avoid holding over the earnings announcement on Friday.

Picked on January 21 at $29.08
Change since picked: + 0.72
Earnings Date 02/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Anadarko Petrol. - APC - close: 43.51 change: +1.46 stop: 41.75

Reports of a significant cold front in the U.S. and news that Saudi Arabia plans additional production cuts helped send crude oil to one of its biggest one-day gains in years. Oil closed up near $57 a barrel. This lifted the energy sector and shares of APC jumped 3.4%. Aggressive traders might want to buy the bounce but we're still on the sidelines waiting for a breakout over resistance at the $44.00 level. If the stock can breakout tomorrow and hit our trigger at $44.05 then great. If APC does not breakout we will drop it as a candidate because the company's earnings report is coming up pretty fast. We strongly suggest that readers find another candidate in the oil sector that has already reported or has two or three weeks until it reports. We will definitely be looking for another candidate in the energy sector tomorrow! We plan to exit ahead of the February 5th earnings announcement.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/05/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Cascade - CAE - close: 54.25 chg: +0.75 stop: 52.45

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on CAE. Currently we are waiting for a breakout over resistance at $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 42.97 chg: -0.16 stop: 41.99*new*

Tomorrow is our last day with CMCSK. The company is due to report on February 1st. We plan to exit Wednesday at the closing bell. Please note that we are adjusting the stop to $41.99.

Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Commscope - CTV - close: 32.43 change: +0.23 stop: 29.99

CTV is still inching higher and shares posted a 0.7% gain on Tuesday. Volume behind today's rise was pretty low and that's a dangerous sign for the bulls. We would still consider new positions but traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 0.38
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 33.03 change: +1.23 stop: 30.59

FCL displayed plenty of relative strength on Tuesday with a 3.8% gain and on above average volume. Today's move is a much more convincing breakout past resistance at the $32.00 level. The rally stalled just under its simple 50-dma so don't be surprised if there is any profit taking tomorrow. We would use a dip or a bounce above $32.00 as a new entry point to go long. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range. Aggressive traders might want to put their stop under $30.00. We do not want to hold over the February 7th earnings report (still unconfirmed).

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 0.92
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 53.05 change: -0.10 stop: 50.79

GVA did not make any progress today as the stock traded sideways. A dip or bounce near $52.00 can be used as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to consider a tighter stop near $51.50. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the mid February earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 02/12/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 23.85 change: +0.35 stop: 20.99

PSPT is still marching higher. The stock rose another 1.48% to set another new high. Volume behind today's rally came in slightly above average, which is positive. At this point it might pay off to wait for a dip before jumping into a new position. Broken resistance in the $22.00-22.50 region should now offer new support. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report. FYI: More conservative traders might consider a tighter stop under $21.50 or under $22.00.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 39.18 chg: +1.03 stop: 35.95

RATE's bullish breakout today looks like a new entry point to buy the stock. Shares rose 2.69% on above average volume. If you're considering a new position don't forget that we plan to exit ahead of the February 6th earnings report (next Tuesday). Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. FYI: The most recent (January) data put short interest at 30% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 0.93
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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TJX Cos. - TJX - close: 29.47 change: +0.08 stop: 28.95

The big rise in crude oil today kept a lid on retail stocks. Shares of TJX rallied to its simple 10-dma overhead and then reversed course. This is a bearish move and we suggest that more conservative traders exit immediately. If TJX does not rebound more strongly tomorrow we will close the play.

Picked on January 24 at $30.21
Change since picked: - 0.74
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million

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Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 32.43 change: -0.00 stop: 30.89

TOL has produced an interesting feat. The stock has closed unchanged two days in a row. If you look at the intraday chart you can see how the trading has narrowed. This suggests that a (mini)breakout is imminent. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early or raise their stops toward $32.00. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on January 21 at $32.42
Change since picked: + 0.01
Earnings Date 03/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 19.94 change: +0.09 stop: 20.51

CMVT is still trading under short-term resistance at $20.00 and its simple 10-dma. This is a pivotal spot for the stock with shares poised to either breakout over resistance or produce a new failed rally and drop to new relative lows. Readers might want to wait for a new decline under Monday's low (19.63) before initiating new plays. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. Please note that this play might have an extra risk concerning the company's earnings report. The problem is we can't find one and we can't find when it is due to report next. History would suggest CMVT tends to report in March but we can't support that for 2007. Earnings reports are always a risk because there are too many variables and the stock could move sharply either direction on the news. We did find one source that said CMVT's subsidiaries VRNT and ULCM are due to report in March.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: + 0.09
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 48.39 chg: +0.97 stop: 50.05

SAFT has bounced back toward resistance at the top of its bearish, descending channel. If the pattern holds then SAFT should reverse under the $48.50-49.00 region. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $49.00. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (January) data put short interest at 6.4% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.50 change: +0.30 stop: 40.35

TDY produced a minor oversold bounce today. Our biggest concern is probably the big volume behind today's 0.8% gain. Volume has been very high the last four days since the company reported earnings. We do not see any changes from our weekend play description. We are suggesting shorts with TDY under $38.40. There might be potential support at the top of its July 2006 gap near $35.85 but we're going to aim for the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.30
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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