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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 29.72 change: -0.08 stop: 27.99

ACI's lack of participation in today's market rally is not a good sign for the bulls. We already have plans to exit tomorrow at the closing bell to avoid the company's earnings report but more conservative traders may want to exit tomorrow morning to avoid any further weakness.

Picked on January 21 at $29.08
Change since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 02/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Anadarko Petrol. - APC - cls: 43.75 chg: +0.24 stop: 41.99*new*

Our bullish play in APC is now open. The stock did trade over resistance at the $44.00 level and hit an intraday high of $44.17. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock was $44.05. However, our comments yesterday suggested that readers would be better off finding a different candidate in the energy sector because APC has an earnings report coming up very quickly! Please note we're adjusting the stop loss to $41.99. We are not suggesting new plays. Our plan is to exit on Monday afternoon at the closing bell to avoid holding over APC's earnings announcement.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 02/05/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Cascade - CAE - close: 53.72 chg: -0.53 stop: 52.45

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on CAE. Currently we are waiting for a breakout over resistance at $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Commscope - CTV - close: 32.31 change: -0.12 stop: 29.99

Traders bought the dip in CTV near its rising 10-dma and the afternoon bounce looks like a new entry point to go long the stock. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 33.28 change: +0.25 stop: 30.59

FCL posted another gain but the stock is still struggling with overhead technical resistance at its 50-dma. Don't be surprised to see a dip back toward $32.00, which we would use as a new entry point to buy the stock. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range. Aggressive traders might want to put their stop under $30.00. We do not want to hold over the February 7th earnings report (still unconfirmed).

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 1.17
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 53.56 change: +0.51 stop: 50.79

Shares of GVA continue to bounce from short-term technical support at its rising 10-dma. Today's move can be used as a new entry point but more conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout past $54.00. More conservative traders may also want to consider a tighter stop near $51.50. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 14th earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 1.15
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 23.85 change: +0.00 stop: 20.99

After three days of gains the rally in PSPT rested. Bulls bought the dip near last week's highs. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Broken resistance in the $22.00-22.50 region should now offer new support. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report. FYI: More conservative traders might consider a tighter stop under $21.50 or under $22.00.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: + 0.61
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 39.51 chg: +0.33 stop: 36.65*new*

RATE rallied again on average volume. Shares are now challenging potential resistance near the $40.00 level. We are not suggesting new positions due to RATE's upcoming earnings report on February 6th. We plan to exit on Monday, February 5th at the closing bell. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $36.65. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. FYI: The most recent (January) data put short interest at 30% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float, which definitely raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 1.26
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 33.83 change: +1.40 stop: 31.89 *new*

The homebuilding sector turned in today's best performance after the Fed's comments that it sees the real estate market stabilizing. The DJUSHB home construction index soared 4.69%. Shares of TOL rallied 4.3% on above average volume. The news is very positive but we would not chase today's move. If you want to buy housing stocks look for a dip. In TOL we'd probably look for a dip towards $33.00-33.25. We are adjusting our stop loss to $31.89. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on January 21 at $32.42
Change since picked: + 1.41
Earnings Date 03/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 19.49 change: -0.45 stop: 20.05*new*

The bearish trend in CMVT finally experienced some momentum today. The company gapped down and traded to $18.98 on news that the NASDAQ has decided to delist CMVT's shares effective tomorrow, February 1st. There was an initial bounce from this morning's low but it failed late this afternoon and CMVT appeared to be headed lower. Volume on today's news was almost twenty times the norm as funds and index managers unloaded shares. The delisting news also sparked news that CMVT would be removed from the S&P midcap 400 index. According to the company's press release it expects shares to trade on the "pink sheets" under CMVT or CMVT.PK. You can see the full press release here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070131/20070131005483.html?.v=1
Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $20.05. We are also adjusting the target to $18.00.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 48.84 chg: +0.45 stop: 50.05

SAFT is still trying to bounce. The stock rose another 0.9% and closed above its exponential 200-dma. The four-day rebound has produced a new MACD buy signal on the daily chart. The stock was oversold so a bounce is to be expected. The question is where will it find resistance. SAFT should find short-term resistance in the $49.00-49.10 region and the $50.00 level, which is bolstered by the simple 200-dma. Wait for a failed rally before considering new positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $49.15. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (January) data put short interest at 6.4% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 38.15 change: +0.65 stop: 40.35

A relatively positive day in the markets helped TDY continue to bounce. Today's 1.7% rebound pulled TDY back above its simple 200-dma. We would watch for shares to produce a failed rally in the $39.00-40.00 region, which readers can use as a new entry point for shorts although we'd prefer to keep entry points under $38.40. There might be potential support at the top of its July 2006 gap near $35.85 but we're going to aim for the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: + 0.35
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Comcast Corp. - CMCSK - cls: 43.46 chg: +0.49 stop: 41.99

Our time is up with CMCSK. Comcast is expected to report earnings tomorrow so we're closing the play ahead of the report. Wall Street expects a profit of 24 cents a share.

Picked on January 14 at $43.32
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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TJX Cos. - TJX - close: 29.57 change: +0.10 stop: 28.95

The RLX retail index turned higher, presumably on the strong GDP numbers and relatively positive Fed commentary. Unfortunately, shares of TJX did not participate and we remain very wary. Today's move looks like another failed rally at its 10-dma so we're suggesting an early exit! If the retail sector is going to rally we'll have to look for a different candidate to trade. We will continue to keep an eye on TJX for a breakout to a new high of a breakdown.

Picked on January 24 at $30.21
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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