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Long Play Updates

Anadarko Petrol. - APC - cls: 43.92 chg: +0.17 stop: 41.99

Oil stocks continued to climb in spite of some profit taking in crude oil on Thursday. APC did not make much progress after yesterday's intraday breakout over $44.00. We do not have much time left so we're not suggesting new bullish positions in APC. The company is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Monday evening, February 5th. We plan to exit at the closing bell on Monday. Currently APC is struggling with resistance in the $44.30-44.50 region and it could see additional resistance with any of its moving averages still above it but it is worth noting that APC has produced an inverted (bullish) head-and-shoulders pattern and is in the process of breaking out higher. The inverted H&S pattern points to a $48 target.

Picked on January 31 at $44.05
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 02/05/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Cascade - CAE - close: 53.94 chg: +0.22 stop: 52.45

The sideways consolidation in shares of CAE appears to be narrowing and that would suggest a breakout should be sooner rather than later. Currently we are waiting for a breakout over resistance at $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Commscope - CTV - close: 32.46 change: +0.15 stop: 29.99

Traders bought the dip again as CTV pulled back to its four-week trendline of higher lows (near the 10-dma). Readers can use today's intraday bounce as a new entry point to buy the stock. More conservative traders might want to consider tightening their stops toward the $31 area. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 34.27 change: +0.99 stop: 30.59

Coal-related stocks turned in a strong rally today. Shares of FCL surged 2.9% and broke out over its simple 50-dma. Volume on today's rally was above average, which is generally a good sign. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range. Aggressive traders might want to put their stop under $30.00. We do not want to hold over the February 7th earnings report (still unconfirmed).

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 2.16
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 54.68 change: +1.12 stop: 50.79

The widespread market rally rubbed off on shares of GVA and the stock rose 2.09%. Our only concern would have been the lackluster volume behind the move but now GVA is challenging round-number resistance at the $55 level. We are not suggesting new positions at this time but we'll be watching for a pull back toward support at a new entry point. More conservative traders may also want to consider a tighter stop near $51.50. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 14th earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 2.27
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Genesee - GWR - close: 27.95 change: -0.24 stop: 26.49

Uh-oh! The transports and the railroads continued to rally on Thursday but GWR displayed relative weakness. That should put bulls on the defensive. Watch for a bounce near $27.50 as a new entry point and consider using a tighter stop loss. We have about seven trading days before the company reports earnings and as usual we plan to exit before the report. More conservative traders might want to wait for more confirmation and use a trigger above $28.50 or above potential resistance at the October 2006 highs near $29.00. Our target is $32.00-32.50.

Picked on January 31 at $28.19
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 221 thousand

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Hansen Natural - HANS - cls: 38.99 chg: +0.90 stop: 37.49

HANS delivered a strong performance today. The stock rose 2.3% and broke out from its two-week trading range. This is a new five-month high and more aggressive traders may want to initiate new long positions now. We see potential resistance at $40.00, which is near the top of its gap down. Therefore we're suggesting readers use a trigger to buy the stock at $40.05. Investors should know that HANS received a delisting notice from the NASDAQ a couple of weeks ago. The company was expecting it as says it is working with the NASDQ to remedy any problems. Obviously the risk here is that NASDAQ may choose to delist the stock, which would prompt plenty of larger investors to dump their shares. If we are triggered at $40.50 our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 24.01 change: +0.16 stop: 20.99

PSPT tagged another new all-time high this afternoon. We remain cautious over the lack of volume on the rally and traders may want to tighten their stops a bit. We don't see any changes from our previous comments. Broken resistance in the $22.00-22.50 region should now offer new support. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 40.12 chg: +0.61 stop: 36.65

RATE continues to rally and volume is at least improving as the stock climbs. Shares traded to an intraday high of $40.95 before paring its gains. We are not suggesting new positions due to RATE's upcoming earnings report on February 6th. We plan to exit on Monday, February 5th at the closing bell. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. FYI: The most recent (January) data put short interest at 30% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float, which definitely raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 1.87
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand

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Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 34.13 change: +0.30 stop: 31.89

TOL almost made it to our target today. Shares rallied to a new multi-month high at $34.69 before pulling back and spending the rest of the session consolidating near $34.00. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range. If you are looking for a new entry point we would watch for a dip near $33.00-33.25. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on January 21 at $32.42
Change since picked: + 1.71
Earnings Date 03/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Short Play Updates

Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 19.57 change: +0.08 stop: 20.05

We reported yesterday that the NASDAQ chose to delist CMVT effective today. The stock is now being traded on the "pink sheets". An easy way to get a quote is to go to www.pinksheets.com and look up Comverse with its old symbol CMVT. The stock managed a minor bounce today. We are not suggesting new positions and continue to aim for the $18.00-17.50 range. Volume was about four times the daily average on today's move.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 49.38 chg: +0.54 stop: 50.05

It might be time to start looking for an exit with SAFT. The stock has bounced higher for its fifth trading day in a row. Today's gain looks like a bullish breakout from its narrow, two-month bearish channel. SAFT does still have overhead resistance near $50.00 and its 200-dma. If you are looking for a new entry point then a failed rally under $50 could be used as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to exit early right now with the rise past $49.15. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (January) data put short interest at 6.4% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.89
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 38.84 change: +0.69 stop: 40.35

Today's widespread market rally helped fuel another day in TDY's oversold bounce. The stock has now broken out higher above its 10-dma and its 200-dma. Volume is fading on the rebound but it's still near the daily average. We would watch for shares to produce a failed rally in the $39.00-40.00 region, which readers can use as a new entry point for shorts although we'd prefer to keep entry points under $38.40. There might be potential support at the top of its July 2006 gap near $35.85 but we're going to aim for the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: + 1.04
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 30.63 change: +0.91 stop: 27.99

We were fortunate with the exit on ACI. It was our plan to exit tonight at the closing bell to avoid holding over tomorrow's earnings report. The market was widely positively and shares of ACI rallied over 3% on above average volume. Wall Street is looking for a profit of 39 cents a share from ACI.

Picked on January 21 at $29.08
Change since picked: + 1.55
Earnings Date 02/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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