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Long Play Updates

Anadarko Petrol. - APC - cls: 43.83 chg: -0.09 stop: 41.99

Time is running short for our APC play. The company is due to report earnings on Monday after the closing bell. We plan to exit on Monday at the close. Oil stocks experienced some profit taking on Friday after a strong week. Shares of APC hit a new relative high of $44.87 before slipping back under resistance near $44.00. We remain bullish on oil and oil stocks and will continue to keep an eye on APC for another potential play post-earnings.

Picked on January 31 at $44.05
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 02/05/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Cascade - CAE - close: 54.28 chg: +0.34 stop: 52.45

The sideways consolidation in CAE is narrowing and that usually means that a breakout is imminent. Given last week's trend of higher lows we suspect the breakout will be upward. More aggressive traders might want to consider long positions on a move past $54.50. We are still waiting for a breakout over $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report. FYI: A move past $56.00 would create a new quintuple top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Commscope - CTV - close: 32.56 change: +0.10 stop: 29.99

The trend in CTV remains bullish. The stock has a positive trend of higher lows as traders buy the dips near its rising 10-dma. We would still consider new positions here with CTV above $32.00. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stops toward $31.00. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 34.10 change: -0.17 stop: 31.49*new*

Coal-producer ACI reported earnings on Friday that were better than expected but the company guided lower. This weighed on the coal industry and shares of FCL gapped down but managed to rebound into the closing bell. The short-term trend in FCL continues to look bullish and readers might want to consider buying a dip near $32.00-33.00. We are raising our stop loss to $31.49. More conservative traders might want to put their stop closer to $32.00. The company recently came out and set their earnings announcement date for February 15th so we have extra time for this play to run. We'll plan to exit on Wednesday, February 14th at the closing bell. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range. FYI: There appeared to be some confusion on where FCL closed on Friday. One source said FCL closed at $33.28 (+$0.25). Most sources put FCL's close at $34.10 (-$0.17).

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 1.99
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 55.23 chg: +0.55 stop: 51.99*new*

GVA produced a very strong week with a 5.4% gain and a breakout past potential resistance at $54.00 and $55.00. Friday's breakout over $55.00 was fueled by improving volume, which tends to be a bullish sign. We are not suggesting new positions at this time but if GVA sees any consolidation we'd look for support in the $53.00-54.00 region. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $51.99. More conservative traders might be able to get away with a stop near $52.50 or $53.00. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 14th earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 2.82
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Genesee - GWR - close: 27.83 change: -0.12 stop: 26.49

Shares of railroad-related GWR experienced a minor bout of profit taking on Thursday and Friday. We would use the dip on Friday as a new entry point since broken resistance near $27.50 should be new support. GWR should also have technical support at its simple 200-dma near $27.60. We only have six trading days left before we have to exit ahead of the company's earnings report due out on February 13th. Our target is $32.00-32.50.

Picked on January 31 at $28.19
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 221 thousand

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Hansen Natural - HANS - cls: 39.60 chg: +0.61 stop: 37.49

HANS continues to rally and the stock rose 1.5% on Friday following Thursday's breakout from its trading range. We suggested that more aggressive traders might want to buy the breakout over $39.00. We see potential resistance at $40.00 so we're suggesting a trigger to go long at $40.05. If triggered at $40.05 our target will be the $44.00-45.00 range. More conservative traders might want to consider a higher trigger, maybe $40.25 or $40.50, to lower the risk of being triggered on an intraday spike above $40.00. Investors should know that HANS received a delisting notice from the NASDAQ a couple of weeks ago. The company was expecting it as says it is working with the NASDQ to remedy any problems. Obviously the risk here is that NASDAQ may choose to delist the stock, which would prompt plenty of larger investors to dump their shares.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 23.65 chg: -0.36 stop: 21.89 *new*

PSPT is still consolidating near its all-time highs and short-term resistance around the $24.00 level. The trend remains bullish and we would watch for a dip near its 10-dma (23.30) or in the $22.75-23.00 region as a new bullish entry point to buy the stock. Please note that we are raising the stop loss to $21.89. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 40.33 chg: +0.21 stop: 38.25*new*

We are almost out of time with the bullish play on RATE. The company is due to report earnings on February 6th. We plan to exit on Monday, February 5th at the closing bell. Our target is the $41.90-42.00 range. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to breakeven at $38.25. FYI: The most recent (January) data put short interest at 30% of RATE's 11.2 million-share float, which definitely raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 2.08
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 19.60 change: +0.03 stop: 20.05

It was a bearish weak for CMVT. The stock broke down to new relative lows and shares were delisted from the NASDAQ. CMVT continues to trade under its old symbol on the "pink sheets". We are not suggesting new positions. The stock has been consolidating sideways the last couple of days and remains under its bearish trend of lower highs. Our target is the $18.00-17.50 range. If you're looking for a quote on CMVT try going to pinksheets.com or stockcharts.com.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 48.49 chg: -0.89 stop: 50.05

Friday was a good day for the bears. SAFT produced a failed rally and bearish engulfing candlestick (bearish reversal) under the $50.00 level and its 200-dma. This looks like a new entry point to short the stock. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (January) data put short interest at 6.4% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 39.31 change: +0.47 stop: 40.35

Last week was a rough one for bears in TDY. There was no follow through lower on the bearish breakdown from late January. A generally positive market environment helped TDY rebound about 6% from its lows. The stock is now in position to challenge overhead resistance near $40.00 and its two-month trendline of lower highs. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops. We are not suggesting new plays until we see a convincing reversal lower. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: + 1.51
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Toll Bros. - TOL - close: 35.35 change: +1.22 stop: 31.89

Target achieved and exceeded. The homebuilders continued to rally on Friday. The DJUSHB home construction index surged 3.1%. Shares of TOL out performed its peers with a 3.5% gain. The stock broke through the $35.00 level, which was potential round-number, psychological resistance. Due to TOL's relative strength more aggressive traders may want to hold the stock and see how far it can run. We are closing the play at our target ($34.75-35.00 range) but we'll keep an eye on it for a dip and a possible entry point for new long positions.

Picked on January 21 at $32.42
Change since picked: + 2.93
Earnings Date 03/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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