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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 54.15 chg: -0.13 stop: 52.45

We have been expecting a bullish breakout higher in shares of CAE and the stock almost provided one today. CAE broke out over resistance in the $54.30-54.50 range but the rally failed at $55.00. We are still waiting for a breakout over $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report. FYI: A move past $56.00 would create a new quintuple top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Commscope - CTV - close: 32.67 change: +0.11 stop: 29.99

We do not see any changes from our weekend update on CTV. The stock continues to creep higher with short-term technical support at its 10-dma. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stops toward $31.00. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 41.00 chg: +0.62 stop: 38.95

It was a positive day for DISH. The company solved its dispute with HBO and the two companies signed a long-term distribution deal. Shares of DISH reacted by gapping open higher, dipping back to fill the gap, and then rallying higher again. Volume came in strong on today's 1.5% gain. We are suggesting longs with the stock over $40.00. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 33.81 change: -0.29 stop: 31.49

We do not see any changes from our weekend update on FCL. The short-term trend in FCL continues to look bullish and readers might want to consider buying a dip near $32.00-33.00. More conservative traders might want to put their stop closer to $32.00. We plan to exit on Wednesday, February 14th at the closing bell to avoid earnings the next day. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 1.70
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Florida EastCo. - FLA - cls: 61.75 chg: -0.56 stop: 59.85

Over the weekend we told readers that our preferred entry point would be on a dip in FLA. The stock slipped 0.89% on Monday and while we would still consider new positions here we really suspect FLA to dip closer to support near $61.00. There is potential resistance at the December high but we're going to aim for the $65.00-66.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $94 target. FLA is due to report earnings on the morning of Thursday, February 15th. Therefore we plan to exit the day before at the closing bell.

Picked on February 04 at $62.31
Change since picked: - 0.56
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 113 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 54.36 chg: -0.87 stop: 51.99

GVA suffered some profit taking on Monday with a 1.5% gain. The question now is where will the stock find support. Will $54.00 hold as support or will GVA dip toward $53.00. If you're looking for a new entry point we'd wait for a bounce above $53.00 or its 10-dma. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 14th earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 1.95
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Genesee - GWR - close: 27.49 change: -0.34 stop: 26.49

GWR continued consolidating lower and we were disappointed to see the intraday weakness under $27.50 and its 10-dma. We'd wait for a rally past $27.75 or $28.00 before considering new positions. We only have five trading days left before we have to exit ahead of the company's earnings report due out on February 13th. Our target is $32.00-32.50.

Picked on January 31 at $28.19
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 221 thousand

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Hansen Natural - HANS - cls: 38.81 chg: -0.79 stop: 37.49

Warning! The play in HANS has been triggered but the stock quickly reversed course. Shares traded to $40.20 this morning and our suggested trigger was at $40.05. Unfortunately, HANS quickly turned lower and closed down almost 2%. Today's move is both a failed rally at resistance and a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. We would expect a pull back toward $38.00, where the stock might find short-term support. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops given today's reversal.

Picked on February 5 at $40.05
Change since picked: - 1.24
Earnings Date 03/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Accr. Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 29.01 chg: +0.41 stop: 25.75

LEND continued to rally on Monday and closed up 1.4%. Today's big volume is a bullish signal. The $30.00 level might be short-term resistance so if you don't feel like chasing it we might see a pull back in LEND back toward $28.00-27.00. The recent rally has broken through multiple levels of resistance and it would not surprise us to see a short-squeeze. The most recent (January) data put short interest at 26% of LEND's small 21.1 million-share float. We're aiming for the $32.00-33.00 range. Please note that we only have six trading days before we plan to exit ahead of earnings.

Picked on February 04 at $28.60
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 668 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 22.80 chg: -0.85 stop: 21.89

PSPT finally experienced some profit taking after its recent rally. The stock lost 3.5% but more importantly it broke down under short-term technical support at its 10-dma and its four-week trendline of support. We would expect a dip toward $22.50 or $22.00. A bounce from either could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: - 0.44
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.90 chg: -2.09 stop: 37.41

The post-earnings sell-off continues. AVID plunged another 5.9% and broke down past the $35.00 level. We suggested a trigger to short the stock at $34.65 so the play is now open. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. We do expect a bounce near $32.00, around the July lows. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 1.75
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 19.67 change: +0.07 stop: 20.05

We do not see any changes from our previous comments on CMVT. Unfortunately, moving to the pinksheets has not really had an affect on the share price. CMVT continues to consolidate sideways. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $18.00-17.50 range. If you're looking for a quote on CMVT try going to pinksheets.com or stockcharts.com.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: - 0.21
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 48.18 chg: -0.31 stop: 50.05

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. Today's drop back under $48.50 looks like a new entry point for shorts. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (January) data put short interest at 6.4% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: - 0.31
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.67 change: -1.64 stop: 40.01*new*

TDY has produced a failed rally and the stock lost over 4.1% on strong volume. Today's weakness also left TDY under its simple 200-dma. This looks like a new entry point for shorts. We're going to adjust our stop loss to $40.01. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.13
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Anadarko Petrol. - APC - cls: 42.95 chg: -0.88 stop: 41.99

Crude oil traded to a new four-week high of $59.95 before succumbing to profit taking and closing with a 0.4% loss. Shares of APC under performed the commodity and its peers in the oil sector with a 2% decline. It was our plan to exit today at the closing bell to avoid holding over the company's earnings report. Speaking of earnings we still haven't heard or seen the company's results tonight.

Picked on January 31 at $44.05
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 02/05/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Bankrate Inc. - RATE - close: 38.78 chg: -1.55 stop: 38.25

Ouch! RATE just erased a large chunk of our unrealized gains with a 3.8% sell-off. We could not find anything specific to account for today's weakness so it might just be some pre-earnings jitters. It was our plan to exit tonight at the closing bell to avoid tomorrow's earnings report.

Picked on January 11 at $38.25
Change since picked: + 0.53
Earnings Date 02/06/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 334 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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