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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 54.69 chg: +0.54 stop: 52.45

The situation in CAE seems to be improving. The stock bounced from its lows today and actually looks like it might breakout over resistance in the $55.00-55.50 region. We are still waiting for a breakout over $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report. FYI: A move past $56.00 would create a new quintuple top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Commscope - CTV - close: 32.96 change: +0.29 stop: 29.99

CTV out performed the major averages with a 0.88% gain and a new relative high. We do not see any changes from our weekend update on CTV. The stock continues to creep higher with short-term technical support at its 10-dma. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stops toward $31.00. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 41.29 chg: +0.29 stop: 38.95

Traders bought the dip in DISH again and shares rallied toward last month's highs. Volume on the move was above average, which tends to be a bullish sign. Tomorrow could produce some volatility in the stock. Rival DirectTV (DTV) reports earnings tomorrow morning. A Reuters article out today suggested that DISH and DTV should report "steady" subscriber growth but guide for slower growth in 2007. If DTV does issue any bearish comments we would look for DISH to dip back toward support near $39.00-40.00. We are suggesting longs with the stock over $40.00. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 33.67 change: -0.14 stop: 31.49

FCL is still digesting last week's gains. A dip toward $33.00 or the 10-dma would not be out of the ordinary. Readers might want to consider buying a dip near $32.00-33.00. More conservative traders might want to put their stop closer to $32.00. We plan to exit on Wednesday, February 14th at the closing bell to avoid earnings the next day. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 1.56
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Florida EastCo. - FLA - cls: 62.55 chg: +0.80 stop: 59.85

FLA ignored any weakness in the railroad sector and posted a 1.2% gain and another new relative high. Volume on today's rally was above average. Today's relative strength is good news as most of the railroads trended lower after two stocks in the group were downgraded this morning. There is potential resistance at the December high but we're going to aim for the $65.00-66.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $94 target. FLA is due to report earnings on the morning of Thursday, February 15th. Therefore we plan to exit the day before at the closing bell.

Picked on February 04 at $62.31
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 113 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 55.17 chg: +0.81 stop: 51.99

GVA turned in a decent rebound with a 1.49% gain. Volume came in pretty low on the move and that remains a concern for the bulls. Overall the trend remains bullish. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 14th earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 2.76
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Genesee - GWR - close: 27.12 change: -0.37 stop: 26.49

GWR continues to show relative weakness and more conservative traders may want to exit early right here. The railroad sector was lower today thanks to a couple of downgrades in the group. GWR wasn't downgraded but shares still lost 1.3%. The $27.00 level held up as short-term support for now. We would wait for a new rise past $27.75 or $28.00 before considering new bullish positions. We only have four trading days left before we have to exit ahead of the company's earnings report due out on February 13th. Our target is $32.00-32.50.

Picked on January 31 at $28.19
Change since picked: - 1.07
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 221 thousand

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Hansen Natural - HANS - cls: 38.96 chg: +0.15 stop: 37.49

If there is any good news in our HANS play is that there was no follow through lower on yesterday's bearish reversal. Unfortunately, the stock is still poised to decline. We would wait and watch for a bounce near $38.00 or back over $40.00 before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops.

Picked on February 5 at $40.05
Change since picked: - 1.09
Earnings Date 03/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Accr. Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 28.17 chg: -0.84 stop: 25.75

LEND experienced some profit taking today. The stock lost 2.8% and looks poised to move lower. Yesterday we suggested that readers looking for an entry point should watch for a pull back into the $27.00-28.00 region, which looks like could happen tomorrow. Our target is the $32.00-33.00 range but that requires LEND to breakout past $30 and its 100-dma. We only have five trading days left before we plan to exit ahead of earnings.

Picked on February 04 at $28.60
Change since picked: - 0.43
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 668 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 22.78 chg: -0.02 stop: 21.89

PSPT's lack of follow through on yesterday's short-term bearish breakdown is a good sign but we would still expect a consolidation towards the $22.00 region or at least $22.50. A bounce from either could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 33.13 chg: +0.23 stop: 37.41

AVID produced a minor oversold bounce after its two-day decline. Should the stock continue to bounce watch for a failed rally under $35.00 as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. We do expect a bounce near $32.00, around the July lows. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 48.39 chg: +0.21 stop: 50.05

SAFT seems to be struggling to produce any sort of follow through lower on Friday's bearish reversal. Today's intraday bounce looks like it will continue tomorrow. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stops toward last week's high. We're going to keep our stop at $50.05 since the $50.00 level should be round-number resistance and the 200-dma near $49.71 should be resistance. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $45.10. Our aggressive target is the $42.50 level. FYI: The latest (January) data put short interest at 6.4% of SAFT's 13.1 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.79 change: +0.12 stop: 40.01

The markets did not move much today and neither did shares of TDY. We do not see any changes from our previous updates. Monday's decline looks like a new entry point and the stock remains under its 200-dma. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Comverse Tech. - CMVT - cls: 20.12 change: +0.45 stop: 20.05

We have been stopped out of CMVT at $20.05. The stock produced a relatively strong rebound and broke out over the $20 level and its simple 10-dma. If you're looking for a quote on CMVT try going to pinksheets.com or stockcharts.com.

Picked on January 22 at $19.85
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.4 million
 

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