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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 54.83 chg: +0.14 stop: 52.45

CAE is getting closer to a more meaningful breakout. The stock experienced some volatility this morning with a gap down and a big bounce to the $55.23 intraday high. At the end of the day shares closed up 0.25%. We are still waiting for a breakout over $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report. FYI: A move past $56.00 would create a new quintuple top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Commscope - CTV - close: 33.55 change: +0.59 stop: 29.99

The rally in CTV is picking up steam. This morning before the bell CTV was started with a "buy" rating and shares gapped open higher. The rally continued throughout the day and CTV closed up 1.79% on strong volume. Today's move is also bullish for its breakout above the bottom of its October gap down near $33.28. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stops toward $31.00. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 1.50
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 42.07 chg: +0.78 stop: 38.95

DISH continues to rally on strong volume. Shares of DISH closed up 1.88% as investors applauded earnings from rival DTV. Shares of DTV soared over 5.7% following its earnings report. We are not suggesting new positions in DISH at current levels. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 1.69
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 32.96 change: -0.71 stop: 31.49

FCL continues to give back last week's gains. The stock lost 2.1% and broke down under its 10-dma and 50-dma during today's session. Most of the coal stocks we looked up turned in a similar pull back. We are not suggesting new positions at this time but keep an eye open for a bounce in the $32.00-32.50 region, where FCL could (should) have some support. We plan to exit on Wednesday, February 14th at the closing bell to avoid earnings the next day. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 0.85
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Florida EastCo. - FLA - cls: 63.04 chg: +0.49 stop: 59.85

FLA continues to show relative strength. The stock posted another gain even though railroad stocks closed lower. Shares of FLA are quickly approaching potential resistance at its December highs near $63.64. Don't be surprised if FLA trades near the December peak and then sees some profit taking. Broken resistance near $61.00 should be new support. Our target is the $65.00-66.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $94 target. FLA is due to report earnings on the morning of Thursday, February 15th. Therefore we plan to exit the day before at the closing bell.

Picked on February 04 at $62.31
Change since picked: + 0.73
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 113 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 55.43 chg: +0.26 stop: 51.99

The trading in GVA seemed to follow the pattern in the DJIA. Shares experienced a strong morning, an afternoon consolidation and then a late day bounce. Overall the trend remains positive but GVA's volume continues to slip, which is a concern for the bulls. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 14th earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 3.02
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Genesee - GWR - close: 27.27 change: +0.15 stop: 26.89 *new*

GWR produced a minor bounce from the $27.00 level but failed to breakout past its 200-dma, now overhead. We don't have much time left so we're not suggesting new positions. Please note that we're inching up our stop loss to $26.89. We plan to exit on Monday, February 12th at the closing bell to avoid earnings on Tuesday. Our target is $32.00-32.50.

Picked on January 31 at $28.19
Change since picked: - 0.92
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 221 thousand

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Hansen Natural - HANS - cls: 38.39 chg: -0.57 stop: 37.49

Traders bought the dip in HANS twice near the $38.00 level today. Unfortunately, the stock has not broken its very short-term trend of lower highs. Readers can use the bounce from $38.00 as a new entry point but we would prefer to see a rebound past $40.00 or at least $39.00 before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops.

Picked on February 5 at $40.05
Change since picked: - 1.66
Earnings Date 03/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Accr. Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 29.00 chg: +0.83 stop: 25.75

LEND erased yesterday's pull back with a 2.9% rebound today. The relative strength is encouraging and sets up for another challenge at the $30.00 level soon. Our target is the $32.00-33.00 range but that requires LEND to breakout past $30 and its 100-dma. We only have a few trading days left before we plan to exit ahead of earnings.

Picked on February 04 at $28.60
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 668 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 23.82 chg: +1.04 stop: 21.89

Bulls made a strong showing in PSPT today. The stock bounced sharply and produced a 4.5% gain on above average volume. The stock is poised to challenge short-term resistance at the $24.00 level. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 22.30 change: -0.07 stop: 20.95

Lack of follow through on yesterday's big bounce might be a clue that the rally is not as strong as we'd like. However, TCHC didn't show much weakness either. The recent consolidation looks like a bull flag pattern. We would still consider new positions now but more conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past $23.35 and its 50-dma. Traders should also note that we can't find an earnings date for the company even though they recently raised their earnings guidance. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $24.85-25.00 range. Our more aggressive target is the $27.00-27.50 range.

Picked on February 06 at $22.37
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 33.02 chg: -0.11 stop: 37.41

The major averages didn't make much progress today and neither did AVID. Aside from some initial weakness this morning AVID spent the second half of the session trading sideways in an 11-cent range. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. We do expect a bounce near $32.00, around the July lows. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 1.63
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 29.42 chg: -0.10 stop: 32.01

CPSI failed to move on the strength in tech stocks today. We do not see any changes from our Tuesday new play description. This continues to look like an entry point for shorts. Please note we're keeping the stop at $32.01 in case CPSI tries to fill the gap again. Any failed rally under $31.00 can be used as a new entry point for shorts. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 38.02 change: +0.23 stop: 40.01

TDY, like the major market averages, can't seem to make up its mind what direction it wants to go. The trend in TDY looks bearish with the pattern of lower highs. We would only consider new short positions with the stock under $39.00 but would prefer to keep new entries under the 200-dma near $38.00. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: + 0.22
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Safety Ins. Group - SAFT - cls: 49.03 chg: +0.64 stop: 50.05

We are giving up on SAFT. The stock has broken its long-term bullish trend with the breakdown in January under $50.00 and its 200-dma. Unfortunately, we are seeing too much short-term strength and suspect SAFT might be building up steam for a bigger bounce. More aggressive traders may want to keep the play open since SAFT should have overhead resistance at the 200-dma, the $50.00 mark, and the 50-dma. We'll keep an eye on it for a more convincing bearish reversal or bullish breakout.

Picked on January 08 at $ 48.49
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 83 thousand
 

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