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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 54.39 chg: -0.44 stop: 52.45

There is still no change from our previous updates on CAE. We are still waiting for a breakout over $55.50. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.75. If triggered our target is the $59.76-60.00 range. FYI: We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report. FYI: A move past $56.00 would create a new quintuple top breakout buy signal on the P&F chart.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Commscope - CTV - close: 34.00 change: +0.45 stop: 29.99

CTV is quickly approaching our target in the $34.85-36.00 range. The stock ran up to an intraday high of $34.43 and closed at $34.0 up 1.3% on the session. Volume has come in above average for the last two days of the rally, which tends to be a bullish sign for the stock. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 1.95
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 42.32 chg: +0.25 stop: 38.95

Traders bought the dip in DISH again. This time buyers stepped in at $41.63 and the stock closed with a 0.59% gain. We did notice that volume came in a bit lower today. We are not suggesting new positions in DISH at current levels. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 1.94
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 32.25 change: -0.71 stop: 31.89*new*

FCL lost another 71 cents today. Shares slipped 2.1% following yesterday's breakdown under its 50-dma. Technical indicators are turning bearish. FCL is nearing what should be support at $32.00. We're adjusting our stop loss to $31.89. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. We plan to exit on Wednesday, February 14th at the closing bell to avoid earnings the next day. Our target is the $34.75-35.00 range.

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Florida EastCo. - FLA - cls: 63.43 chg: +0.39 stop: 59.85

FLA is still showing relative strength and ignoring the weakness in railroads and transports today. The stock briefly traded above its previous all-time high before pulling back to close up 0.6%. Volume has been strong for this rally but with FLA testing its previous highs this is where we would expect some profit taking. Don't be surprised to see a dip back toward $62 or its 10-dma. Our target is the $65.00-66.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $94 target. FLA is due to report earnings on the morning of Thursday, February 15th. Therefore we plan to exit the day before at the closing bell.

Picked on February 04 at $62.31
Change since picked: + 1.12
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 113 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 55.96 chg: +0.53 stop: 52.41*new*

GVA is still inching higher and posted a new three-month closing high. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to breakeven at $52.41. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 14th earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 3.55
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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Genesee - GWR - close: 27.14 change: -0.13 stop: 26.89

Shares of GWR are still clinging to short-term support near $27.00. Considering our time frame it might be beneficial to exit on any sort of bounce in the $28.00-28.50 region. We plan to exit on Monday, February 12th at the closing bell to avoid earnings on Tuesday. Our target is $32.00-32.50.

Picked on January 31 at $28.19
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 221 thousand

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Accr. Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 27.25 chg: -1.75 stop: 26.45*new*

It was a very rough day for the mortgage lenders, especially the subprime lenders. New Century Financial issued an unexpected earnings warning, which prompted some downgrades. Those analyst firms not willing to issue a sell rating just dropped coverage on the stock. To make matters worse HSBC also said their subprime lending division would turn in a poor performance. Shares of NEW plunged 36%. This weighed heavily on the rest of the lenders. Shares of LEND gapped down to open at $26.32 but eventually bounced back into the close to end the day with a 6% loss. FYI: Most services show an intraday low of $25.92 for LEND but we cannot see it on the intraday chart. It looks like the low was $26.51. At any rate today's news really deflated the bullish breakout that was taking place in LEND. We will try and exit on any bounce near breakeven in the $28.50-29.00 region. We're not suggesting new positions. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $26.45.

Picked on February 04 at $28.60
Change since picked: - 1.35
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 668 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 24.01 chg: +0.19 stop: 21.89

PSPT is still showing relative strength and hit a new high at $24.41 midday. Unfortunately, it closed off its lows and looks poised to dip tomorrow. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: + 0.77
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 22.13 change: -0.17 stop: 20.95

TCHC is still consolidating under its trend of lower highs. We reiterate our previous comments that traders may want to wait for a rise past $23.35 or its 50-dma before considering new positions. Traders should also note that we can't find an earnings date for the company even though they recently raised their earnings guidance. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $24.85-25.00 range. Our more aggressive target is the $27.00-27.50 range.

Picked on February 06 at $22.37
Change since picked: - 0.24
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.85 chg: -0.17 stop: 37.41

AVID continues to look beaten. The stock slowly drifted sideways in a very narrow range and eventually closed with a 0.5% loss. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. We do expect a bounce near $32.00, around the July lows. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 1.80
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 29.65 chg: +0.23 stop: 32.01

There is no change from our previous updates on CPSI. The stock is trading sideways following the early February breakdown. Today's move (+0.7%) is an oversold bounce but shares remain under the $30.00 level and its 10-dma. A failed rally near $30.00 or under $31.00 can be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: + 0.13
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.54 change: -0.48 stop: 40.01

Today's performance in TDY looks like good news for the bears. The bounce appeared to fail at its 10-dma and 200-dma near $38.00. This move looks like a new entry point for shorts. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.26
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Hansen Natural - HANS - cls: 37.06 chg: -1.33 stop: 37.49

We have been stopped out of HANS at $37.49. Our play opened on Monday with an intraday spike above resistance at the $40.00 level. We immediately warned readers that it looked like a bearish reversal. The stock slowly consolidated toward what should have been support near $38.00 until today's breakdown
(-3.4%). HANS' weekly chart now shows a similar bearish reversal.

Picked on February 5 at $40.05
Change since picked: - 2.99
Earnings Date 03/05/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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