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Long Play Updates

Commscope - CTV - close: 33.51 change: -0.49 stop: 31.89 *new*

After a strong week shares of CTV suffered some profit taking on Friday with a 1.4% decline. Volume on the pull back was mild, which could be a good sign for the bulls. However, the profit taking may not be over yet. Watch for short-term support at its rising 10-dma near 32.86. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $31.89. We are not suggesting new plays at this time. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 1.46
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 41.58 chg: -0.74 stop: 39.75 *new*

Traders decided to lock in some profits on Friday. DISH had rallied to new multi-year highs earlier in the week but the stock lost 1.75% on Friday. A bounce near $41.00 or near the $40.00 level could be used as a new bullish entry point but we would be extra cautious about opening new long positions this coming week. Please note that we are raising the stop loss to $39.75. We are not suggesting new positions in DISH at current levels. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 1.94
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Florida EastCo. - FLA - cls: 63.53 chg: +0.10 stop: 60.85*new*

Another day, another gain for FLA. The stock continues to shrug off weakness in the railroad sector and the wider market. FLA hit a new all-time high on Friday but struggled to make much progress. Volume came in pretty strong, which might be telling us that we're seeing some distribution. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Should FLA correct the stock should find support near $62.00 and its simple 10-dma. We are adjusting the stop loss to $60.85. Our target is the $65.00-66.00 range. The Point & Figure chart points to a $94 target. FLA is due to report earnings on the morning of Thursday, February 15th. Therefore we plan to exit the day before at the closing bell.

Picked on February 04 at $62.31
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 113 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 56.03 chg: +0.07 stop: 52.41

Construction contractor GVA continues to show relative strength. The stock hit a new relative high over the $56.00 level before pulling back from its highs. It looked like traders were buying the dip on Friday afternoon if you study the intraday chart. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stop loss toward the $54.00 region. Actually more conservative traders might want to lock in a gain considering the broader market weakness on Friday. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our target is the $57.50 mark. We do not want to hold over the February 14th earnings report.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 3.62
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 23.23 chg: -0.78 stop: 21.89

After hitting a new all-time high on Thursday, traders did some profit taking on Friday and PSPT lost 3.25%. The action on Thursday and Friday looks like a short-term bearish reversal. We would expect another dip toward $22.50 or $22.00. More conservative traders may just want to exit early now to avoid/limit any losses, especially given the market-wide weakness on Friday. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $26.00 level. We do not want to hold over the early March earnings report.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: - 0.01
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 21.88 change: -0.25 stop: 20.95

TCHC is struggling to build on any bullish momentum. The stock has traded one trendline of resistance (lower highs) for new trendline. Granted volume has been very low on the consolidation, which tends to be a good sign for the bulls. However, we would not consider new bullish positions until we see TCHC traded over $23.35 or its 50-dma. If you are long the stock we'd actually consider exiting now and waiting for a new bullish breakout. Currently TCHC looks poised to dip toward $21.00 and potentially the $20.00 region. It is possible that TCHC is building a bullish flag even if it is our suggested entries above still work. Traders should also note that we can't find an earnings date for the company even though they recently raised their earnings guidance. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $24.85-25.00 range. Our more aggressive target is the $27.00-27.50 range.

Picked on February 06 at $22.37
Change since picked: - 0.49
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.27 chg: -0.58 stop: 37.41

Friday's market weakness helped AVID lose another 1.77%. Shares dipped toward potential support near $32.00 and its July 2006 lows. If the stock was going to stage a bounce this would be a good spot for it to occur. Therefore we're not suggesting new positions at this time. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 2.38
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 28.71 chg: -0.94 stop: 32.01

Interest rate concerns had traders selling growth stocks and technology tumbled lower in the process. CPSI lost 3.17% on above average volume and the move looks like a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss closer to the $31.00 level. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 0.81
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.09 change: -0.45 stop: 40.01

TDY continued to slip lower following Thursday's bearish reversal under the 200-dma. The stock is now challenging the late January lows near $37.00. A breakdown from here should clear the way for a dip toward the top of its July 2006 gap near $35.85. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.71
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Cascade - CAE - close: 54.05 chg: -0.34 stop: 52.45

We are throwing in the towel on CAE again. Twice we have tried to catch a breakout over resistance and both times we've been left waiting. We suspect that CAE will have a harder time breaking out now that the market averages are acting vulnerable. Shares never hit our trigger to open plays at $55.75.

Picked on January xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 71 thousand

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Foundation Coal - FCL - cls: 32.03 change: -0.22 stop: 31.89

A spike lower on Friday afternoon was enough to stop us out of FCL at $31.89. We had been turning more cautious on the stock with the pull back and roll over in the technicals. If the selling continues look for FCL to find support near $30.00.

Picked on January 29 at $32.11
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand

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Genesee - GWR - close: 26.75 change: -0.39 stop: 26.89

The railroad sector posted its fifth loss in a row and GWR finally broke down under support at the $27.00 level. We would have been stopped out at $26.89. Technicals have turned bearish for the stock.

Picked on January 31 at $28.19
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 221 thousand

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Accr. Home Lenders - LEND - cls: 25.81 chg: -1.44 stop: 26.45

As if Thursday's slide wasn't bad enough the subprime lenders took another beating on Friday. Thursday's afternoon bounce in LEND was quickly reversed and LEND dipped to an intraday low of $24.02, breaking support at the $25.00 level. We would have been stopped out at $26.45.

Picked on February 04 at $28.60
Change since picked: - 1.35
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 668 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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