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Long Play Updates

Commscope - CTV - close: 33.97 change: +0.66 stop: 31.89

Volume continues to come in relatively low with CTV but we're not going to complain about the 1.9% gain. So far CTV continues to trade with a bullish trend of higher lows. Our target is the $34.85-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bearish.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 1.92
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 42.12 chg: +0.42 stop: 39.75

DISH bounced with the market and posted a 1% gain. Yet if you look at the intraday chart it looks like DISH produced a minor failed rally near last week's highs. The trend remains bullish but we hesitate to suggest new bullish positions. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 2.48
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 55.63 chg: +0.18 stop: 52.41

GVA could not decide what direction it wanted to go so shares traded near its recent highs and near support at its rising 10-dma. Overall the bullish trend is intact but we hesitate to open new bullish positions with momentum beginning to wane. The company is expected to report earnings after the closing bell on February 14th. We plan to exit at the close on Wednesday to avoid holding over earnings. Our target remains the $57.50 mark.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 3.22
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 22.69 chg: +0.43 stop: 21.89

We still cannot find any news explaining yesterday afternoon's sudden weakness. In the meantime traders stepped in to buy the dip near support around the $22 level and its rising 50-dma. Volume came in pretty strong on today's 1.9% bounce. Our update last night said a bounce from here would be an entry point but we remain cautious on adding new bullish positions in this market.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 21.51 change: -0.32 stop: 20.95

Volume continues to come in very low during TCHC's consolidation over the last several days. This would suggest a lack of motivation behind both the buyers and the sellers. However, today's failure to bounce with the broader market and the insurance sector is a display of relative weakness. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses now. If we do not see a bounce soon we'll probably drop TCHC as a candidate. If the stock can trade past $22.50 or $23.00 we would consider new bullish positions. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rise past the 50-dma near $23.00. Traders should also note that we can't find an earnings date for the company even though they recently raised their earnings guidance. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $24.85-25.00 range. Our more aggressive target is the $27.00-27.50 range.

Picked on February 06 at $22.37
Change since picked: - 0.86
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.20 chg: -0.08 stop: 36.05*new*

AVID hit a new relative low this afternoon with an intraday dip to $31.90. However, we have been warning readers that AVID might produce a bounce near the $32.00 level, which was support back in July. Therefore, the very late afternoon bounce in AVID could be the start of a stronger rebound/oversold bounce. We are not suggesting new short positions at this time. Wait and watch to see if any rebound fails near the 10-dma or the $35.00 level. We're dropping our stop loss to $36.05. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $35.00. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 2.45
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 28.84 chg: +0.33 stop: 31.26*new*

CPSI is not making much progress lower. Shares dipped to a new one-week low this morning and then bounced sharply. The stock looks poised to rally towards short-term overhead resistance near the 10-dma (around 29.66). If CPSI breaks out over the 10-dma then look for further resistance in the $30.75-31.00 region. We are adjusting the stop loss to $31.26. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 0.68
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Cash Amer. - CSH - close: 43.57 chg: +0.82 stop: 44.75

CSH is nearing the moment of truth. Will shares roll over again under its six-week trendline of resistance and its simple 50-dma near $44.50? More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward the 50-dma. We are not suggesting new positions until we see a new failed rally under resistance. Alternatively readers could wait for a drop under $42.00 as an entry point. Our target is the $39.00-38.50 range, which is where we expect CSH to meet up with its 200-ema again. We'll put our stop loss just above the 50-dma. The P&F chart points to a $33.00 target.

Picked on February 11 at $42.51
Change since picked: + 1.06
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 390 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.40 change: -0.03 stop: 40.01

TDY's relative weakness, evidenced by today's failure to bounce with the market, is good news for the bears. We do not see any changes from our previous updates. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Florida EastCo. - FLA - cls: 64.84 chg: +0.68 stop: 60.85

Target achieved. The railroad stocks continued to rally. The group got a boost today as the street pondered potential mergers in the group. Shares of FLA hit an intraday high of $64.91. Our target was the $64.85-66.00 range. FYI: FLA is up several days in a row and way overdue for a dip.

Picked on February 04 at $62.31
Change since picked: + 2.53
Earnings Date 02/15/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 113 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

Illumina - ILMN - close: 37.19 change: +2.26 stop: 36.16

We have been stopped out of ILMN at $36.16. The stock quickly surged higher this morning after the company issued a press release stating that researchers using ILMN's tools have made a discovery in four different gene variations involving the risk of type-2 diabetes. Five minutes later the company took advantage of the good news to announce they are selling $350 million in convertible notes.

Picked on February 11 at $34.08
Change since picked: + 3.11
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
 

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