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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 55.48 change: +0.04 stop: 52.95

Warning! CAE did exactly what we were worried about. The stock broke out higher, hit our trigger to go long, and then retreated back under resistance near $55.50. This sort of failed rally looks like a possible bull trap. Nimble traders may want to watch for a bounce near $55.00 and buy the bounce. We would wait for a new rally past the afternoon high near $56.20 before considering new positions. If CAE does not bounce tomorrow or provide some sort of indication that it wants to move higher then we will drop the stock and cut our losses early. Currently our target is the $59.75-60.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart has been revised and points to a $65 target with a fresh quadruple (actually quintuple) top breakout buy signal.

Picked on February 14 at $55.75
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 91 thousand

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 42.04 chg: -0.08 stop: 39.75

The market's strength helped lift DISH toward the recent highs but shares failed to breakout over the $42.50 level. This is the third or fourth failed rally in the last several days and traders should turn cautious here. We'd probably look for a dip back toward short-term support near its rising 10-dma around $41.40-41.50. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 2.56
Earnings Date 03/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Ross Stores - ROST - close: 34.63 change: +1.23 stop: 31.45

Our new play in ROST is off to a good start. The retail sector ignored lackluster retail sales numbers for January and posted a gain. Shares of ROST really out performed its peers and the broader market with a 3.6% gain on strong volume. The bullish breakout past the January highs is also positive. We suggested a trigger to buy the stock at $33.75. The play is now open and our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $54 target.

Picked on February 14 at $33.75
Change since picked: + 0.88
Earnings Date 03/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.54 chg: +0.34 stop: 36.05

The market's strength contributed to AVID's oversold bounce today but shares failed to breakout over the $33.00 level. We remain bearish on the stock but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward $35.00. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 2.11
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 28.63 chg: -0.21 stop: 31.26

CPSI continues to show relative weakness, which was encouraging to see on a day that all of the tech indices turned higher. Readers may want to consider new positions here or on a failed rally under $30.00 or its 10-dma although we'd probably hesitate to open new shorts with the market averages hitting new highs. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 0.89
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Cash Amer. - CSH - close: 43.66 chg: +0.09 stop: 44.75

So far so good. CSH tried to rally further but failed under technical resistance at its 50-dma. This looks like a new entry point to short the stock but readers might feel more comfortable waiting for something of a confirmation of the failed rally with a new decline under $43.00 or $42.50. Our target is the $39.00-38.50 range, which is where we expect CSH to meet up with its 200-ema again. We'll put our stop loss just above the 50-dma. The P&F chart points to a $33.00 target.

Picked on February 11 at $42.51
Change since picked: + 1.15
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 390 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.16 change: -0.24 stop: 40.01

Relative weakness in shares of TDY today is encouraging for the bears. The stock looks poised to move lower soon. We do not see any changes from our previous updates. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Commscope - CTV - close: 34.73 change: +0.76 stop: 31.89

Target achieved. CTV surged higher this morning and hit $34.92 on an intraday basis. After a brief dip the stock rallied again toward $34.90. Our target was the $34.85-36.00 range.

Picked on January 24 at $32.05
Change since picked: + 2.68
Earnings Date 02/22/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand

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Granite Constr. - GVA - close: 55.80 chg: +0.17 stop: 52.41

Time is up. It was our plan to exit tonight at the closing bell to avoid earnings and it sounds like the plan worked. GVA reported after the bell and earnings were weak. Shares were trading down near $52.50 in after hours.

Picked on January 21 at $52.41
Change since picked: + 3.39
Earnings Date 02/14/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 509 thousand

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PeopleSupport - PSPT - close: 22.40 chg: -0.29 stop: 21.89

We are suggesting an early exit in PSPT. The stock failed to rally with the rest of the market on Wednesday and the lack of follow through on Tuesday's bounce from support is not a good sign for the bulls. Big volume on today's relative weakness is also a warning sign. We're cutting our losses now.

Picked on January 28 at $23.24
Change since picked: - 0.84
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand

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21st Century - TCHC - close: 21.40 change: -0.11 stop: 20.95

We are cutting our losses on TCHC. The stock failed to rally with the rest of the market and shares have been showing relative weakness, albeit on lower volume, for the last couple of weeks. More aggressive traders may want to keep the play open since TCHC has not yet broke short-term support near $21.00 yet. We will keep an eye on the stock for a bullish breakout from this consolidation pattern but for now we're cutting it loose.

Picked on February 06 at $22.37
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 00/00/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 115 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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