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Long Play Updates

Cascade - CAE - close: 59.51 change: +4.47 stop: 54.99*new*

The market reacted very favorably to news that CAE would replace ELK in the S&P smallcap 600 index. Shares of CAE gapped open higher at $57.32 and closed near its highs for the day up 8.1%. The stock is very close to our target in the $59.75-60.00 range. We are not suggesting new positions and more conservative traders may want to exit now. We're adjusting our stop loss to $54.99. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but we suspect the $60 level might offer some round-number, psychological resistance.

Picked on February 14 at $55.75
Change since picked: + 3.76
Earnings Date 03/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 91 thousand

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 42.53 chg: +0.53 stop: 40.38*new*

DISH displayed relative strength with another rebound from short-term support at its rising 10-dma. The stock closed at another new multi-year high with Friday's breakout over the $42.50 level. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we're raising the stop loss to breakeven at $40.38. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. FYI: More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table soon.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 3.05
Earnings Date 03/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Ross Stores - ROST - close: 34.81 change: +0.02 stop: 31.45

ROST traded in a relatively narrow range on Friday as it struggled under round-number, psychological resistance at the $35.00 level. We remain bullish on the stock but odds are growing that it will see a dip back toward $34.00 or $33.50 before moving higher. We would wait for a dip before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $36.50-37.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $54 target.

Picked on February 14 at $33.75
Change since picked: + 1.06
Earnings Date 03/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Titanium Metals - TIE - cls: 35.35 change: +0.12 stop: 32.75

TIE has barely moved since the post-earnings pop on Wednesday. Overall the trend remains bullish but the lack of follow through higher should put us on the defensive. Chart readers will also notice that volume has dried up as TIE consolidates sideways. We would still consider new positions now or on a dip near its 10-dma, currently near $34.25. More conservative traders or those who prefer to see more momentum may want to wait for a breakout over $36.00. Our target is the $39.50-40.00 range. The P&F chart shows a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $54 target.

Picked on February 14 at $35.24
Change since picked: + 0.11
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 33.71 chg: +0.57 stop: 36.05

The oversold bounce in AVID continues. We warned readers in our original play description to expect a bounce near $32.00 and that's what we're seeing. Strength in the major averages doesn't help our case as bears, especially with relatively high short interest in AVID. The big picture for AVID remains bearish but the question we need answered is where will AVID's bounce fail? Will shares struggled at the $34.00 level or will it continue to rally toward $35.00 and then roll over? The stock has broken support at $35.00 and $35.50 so both levels could be overhead resistance. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward either $35.50 or $35.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time at least until we see some sort of failure in this rebound. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 0.94
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 29.07 chg: +0.43 stop: 31.26

CPSI can't decide what direction to move next. The stock has been trading sideways for the last five days. One could argue that the intraday rebound on February 13th was a potential (bullish) double-bottom pattern yet there has been no follow through higher. In the meantime shares aren't seeing any follow through in its larger, bearish pattern. We suspect that CPSI will make another bounce attempt toward $30 or $31. We would wait and watch for another failed rally at either level before considering new short positions. Our concern is that with the major market indices trading higher any sort of rebound in CPSI could spark a short squeeze as fearful bears rush to cover. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Cash Amer. - CSH - close: 42.80 chg: -0.21 stop: 44.55*new*

CSH has produced three failed rallies under technical resistance at its simple 50-dma in the last four weeks. The last reversal occurred three days ago and offered readers another entry point for shorts. We would still consider new short positions now although more conservative traders may want to wait for a decline under $42.00, which has been short-term support in the past. Our target is the $39.00-38.50 range, which is where we expect CSH to meet up with its 200-ema again. We'll adjust our stop loss to just above the 50-dma at $44.55. The P&F chart points to a $33.00 target.

Picked on February 11 at $42.51
Change since picked: + 0.29
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 390 thousand

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Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 37.29 change: +0.15 stop: 40.01

TDY hasn't moved much with a 20-cent gain for last week. The only thing that has been moving was volume, which was relatively heavy on Wednesday and Thursday. The pattern for TDY continues to look bearish but shares just can't seem to get any downward momentum. A bullish market environment doesn't help. We would probably look for a new relative low (under $36.65) or a very clear failed rally under $38.00 and its 200-dma before considering new shorts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop loss toward the 50-dma near $39.50 or maybe closer toward $39.00. Currently our target is the $34.25-34.00 range. The P&F chart has a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $33 target. FYI: The latest (January) data has short interest at 3.7% of the company's 31.3 million-share float.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: - 0.51
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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