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Long Play Updates

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 40.63 change: -0.18 stop: 38.65*new*

The rally in ADBE took a break late last week with a Thursday-Friday rest. Shares of ADBE have been trading sideways the last couple of sessions and volume has been sliding. Overall the pattern is bullish given ADBE's breakout over the $39.00 level, the 50-dma, and its multi-week trendline of resistance (see chart). We would wait and watch for a dip near $40.00 or even into the $39.00-40.00 zone as a new bullish entry point to go long. Of course more conservative traders may want to wait for signs of a bounce first before initiating new long positions. Our short-term target is the $43.00-44.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart points to a $51 target. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $38.65.

Picked on February 18 at $40.27
Change since picked: + 0.39
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.1 million

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Aetna - AET - close: 46.06 change: -0.07 stop: 42.95

Last week was relatively quiet for AET. The stock surged to a new relative high last Tuesday (Monday was a holiday) and then shares spent the rest of the week consolidating sideways. The pattern remains bullish given the breakout over resistance near $44.00. At this point in the game we'd probably look for a dip toward the rising 10-dma (near $44.75-45.00) as a new entry point to go long the stock. More conservative traders might want to consider tighter stops. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $65 target.

Picked on February 18 at $45.61
Change since picked: + 0.45
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 42.52 chg: +0.08 stop: 40.95 *new*

We are running out of time with our DISH play. The company is expected to report earnings on the morning of March 1st. Therefore we plan to exit at the closing bell on Wednesday, February 28th. More conservative traders may want to exit early on Monday to try and lock in a gain. We're adjusting our stop loss to $40.95. DISH appears to have mild support near $42 and again near $41.50 but we wouldn't count on it. We are not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 2.14
Earnings Date 03/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 33.99 change: +0.30 stop: 32.45

EBAY's consolidation over the last few weeks has had a bullish trend of higher lows. This pattern eventually produced a breakout over resistance near $34.00 this past week. Unfortunately, there wasn't very much follow through on the breakout. The trend continues to look bullish but we would wait for a new rise past $34.25 before considering new long positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward the $33.00 level. Our target is the $37.50-38.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $45 target.

Picked on February 22 at $34.15
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.3 million

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Intl. Speedway - ISCA - cls: 53.97 chg: -0.24 stop: 52.64

After the initial dip on Friday morning shares of ISCA spent the session in a 15-cent range. The stock continues to consolidate its previous gains and is currently testing its three-week trendline of support (see chart). We would use a bounce from here or a bounce near $53.50 as a new bullish entry point to buy the stock. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new high before opening plays. Our target is the $58.50-60.00 range. The P&F chart looks pretty bullish with a breakout over resistance and a buy signal that points to a $75 target.

Picked on February 21 at $54.51
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 117 thousand

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Ross Stores - ROST - close: 34.12 change: -0.12 stop: 31.45

ROST spent the entire week consolidating its previous week's gains. Volume also pulled back suggesting a lack of true selling pressure. We would use a bounce from here as a new bullish entry point to buy the stock. However, next week could be dangerous for those trading retail stocks. There are several high-profile retailers report earnings this coming week and their results and guidance will have a big impact on the sector's performance. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops significantly to reduce their risk. JWN reports on Monday while TGT and FD report on Tuesday. GPS and KSS report on Thursday. Our target for ROST is the $36.50-37.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $54 target.

Picked on February 14 at $33.75
Change since picked: + 0.37
Earnings Date 03/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 40.13 chg: -0.01 stop: 38.49

Friday was a non-event for STLD. The stock barely moved and volume came in at half the daily average. Overall the trend remains bullish but we would wait for a bounce from here (near $40) before opening new positions. This is an aggressive, higher-risk play. STLD looks overbought, especially if you check out the weekly chart. Yet short-term we're seeing a bullish breakout from a three-week consolidation pattern. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $60 target. The latest (January) data puts short interest at 6% of the 82.5 million-share float.

Picked on February 21 at $40.60
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Titanium Metals - TIE - cls: 38.03 change: +0.86 stop: 33.95*new*

TIE displayed relative strength on Friday with a 2.3% gain. We were also encouraged by how quickly traders bought the dip near $37.50 on Friday afternoon. We are not suggesting new positions at this time since TIE is within striking distance of our target in the $39.50-40.00 range. The P&F chart shows a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $54 target. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $33.95. More conservative traders might want to think about doing a little profit taking of their own.

Picked on February 14 at $35.24
Change since picked: + 2.79
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 33.86 chg: -0.04 stop: 35.16*new*

AVID is still trading under short-term resistance near the $34.00 level. The stock has been in oversold bounce-mode for the last two weeks and the question now is when and where will the bounce run out of steam. It looks like bears might hold AVID under $34.00. We would wait for a new decline under the 10-dma (near 33.13) before considering new short positions. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $35.16, which is above what should be overhead resistance at the $35.00 level. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 29.33 chg: +0.02 stop: 31.26

We suspect that this sideways consolidation in CPSI is going to resolve to the downside in a continuation of the previous trend. However, shares might produce one more bounce toward $30.00 before turning lower again. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We would wait for a clear failed rally before initiating new short positions. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 0.19
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Cash Amer. - CSH - close: 42.16 chg: -0.64 stop: 44.55

CSH produced another failed rally on Friday. Readers can choose to use Friday's reversal as a new entry point for shorts or wait for a new breakdown under short-term support at the $42.00 level. The MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. Our target has been the exponential 200-dma, which is where CSH bounced back in January. The 200-ema has been rising so we need to adjust our target to the 39.25-39.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $33.00 target.

Picked on February 11 at $42.51
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 390 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Teledyne Tech - TDY - close: 38.74 change: +0.56 stop: 39.05

We are suggesting an early exit in TDY. The stock displayed relative strength on Friday with a 1.47% gain and a breakout over its 200-dma(s) on strong volume. We could not find any news to account for the rally but we've been warning readers to watch for a move or a close over $38.50 as a warning sign to exit early. Friday's rally appears to be a breakout above the three-month trendline of resistance.

Picked on January 28 at $37.80
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 01/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 197 thousand
 

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