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Long Play Updates

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 40.87 change: +0.24 stop: 38.65

ADBE continues to show relative strength. Bulls bought the dip near $40.15 multiple times today. We would use the afternoon rebound as a new entry point to consider long positions. Our short-term target is the $43.00-44.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher since the P&F chart points to a $51 target.

Picked on February 18 at $40.27
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 03/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.1 million

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Aetna - AET - close: 45.86 change: -0.20 stop: 42.95

Bulls continue to defend AET as traders bought the dip this morning. We keep expecting a dip towards the 10-dma or toward the $44 level but it's not happening, which is a sign of relative strength. More conservative traders might want to consider tighter stops. Our target is the $49.00-50.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $65 target.

Picked on February 18 at $45.61
Change since picked: + 0.25
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million

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EchoStar - DISH - close: 42.47 chg: -0.05 stop: 40.95

We have two days left. Our plan is to exit on Wednesday, February 28th to avoid DISH's earnings report on March 1st. More conservative traders may want to exit now to try and lock in a possible gain. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. FYI: After the market's close on Monday DISH and rival DirecTV announced that they have settled their trademark lawsuits. The two were suing each other for using their respective trademarks as keywords in online searches.

Picked on February 04 at $40.38
Change since picked: + 2.09
Earnings Date 03/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 33.42 change: -0.57 stop: 32.45

The trading in EBAY turned bearish on Monday. Shares produced a failed rally at $34.35 and dipped almost to the $33.00 level before producing a meager bounce from its 21-dma. At the end of the day EBAY lost 1.6% and produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Technically this might be a good spot to consider an early exit and cut our losses since the stock has produced a bearish reversal. However, tomorrow could see EBAY enjoying a nice rebound and we have Jim Cramer to thank for it. Whether you like Mr. Cramer or not he has a very loud voice and plenty of investors are listening. After the market's close today Cramer listed EBAY as his number one Internet stock to own right now - at least until GOOG's bullish momentum returns. Shares of EBAY were already bouncing in the after market with shares up near $33.90. We'd probably wait for a new rally past $34.00 or today's high of $34.35 before initiating new positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward the $33.00 level. Our target is the $37.50-38.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $45 target.

Picked on February 22 at $34.15
Change since picked: - 0.73
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18.3 million

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Graco Inc. - GGG - close: 42.22 chg: -0.05 stop: 40.95

Bulls followed up on GGG's bullish breakout last Friday with a spike higher this morning. Yet the stock only managed an intraday high of $42.52 before pulling back. More aggressive traders might want to buy this dip near $42.00. We are still waiting for GGG to hit our trigger at $42.55. If triggered our target is the $45.85-46.00 range. Our time frame is about six to eight weeks.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand

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Intl. Speedway - ISCA - cls: 54.37 chg: +0.40 stop: 52.64

Today's bounce in ISCA looks like a new entry point. As of last Friday the stock had pulled back toward its short-term trendline of support and its 10-dma. The stock displayed relative strength today with a 0.7% gain on almost normal volume compared to the lackluster volume it's seen the last few days. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new high before opening plays. Our target is the $58.50-60.00 range. The P&F chart looks pretty bullish with a breakout over resistance and a buy signal that points to a $75 target.

Picked on February 21 at $54.51
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 117 thousand

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Ross Stores - ROST - close: 33.89 change: -0.23 stop: 31.45

Warning! ROST continued to slide lower on Monday. We warned readers that the retailers could be volatile this week as investors react to some high-profile earnings announcements. After the closing bell tonight JWN reported earnings and not only missed the estimate but warned going forward. Shares of JWN were trading lower after hours and the news could impact the whole sector tomorrow. The only thing that might save the retail sector from further profit taking is a positive surprise from TGT or FD tomorrow morning when they announce earnings. Meanwhile GPS and KSS are due to report on Thursday. We are not suggesting new positions in ROST at this time. Our target for ROST is the $36.50-37.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $54 target.

Picked on February 14 at $33.75
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 03/13/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 40.14 chg: +0.01 stop: 38.49

It looks like investors can't decide what direction they want to go with STLD. The stock has gone nowhere the last two trading days. Overall the larger trend is still bullish, and probably a bit overbought, but the current lack of upward momentum is going to put a bearish turn in the technical indicators. We would hesitate to launch new long positions here. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $60 target. The latest (January) data puts short interest at 6% of the 82.5 million-share float.

Picked on February 21 at $40.60
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million

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Superior Well Serv. - SWSI - cls: 24.05 chg: +0.15 stop: 22.95

Crude oil continues to march higher and SWSI posted a 0.6% gain and a bullish breakout above its 200-dma. Actually the bullish breakout over the 200-dma is in jeopardy since the breakout was all intraday and SWSI closed just under the moving average. Our suggested trigger to go long the stock was at $24.55 and the intraday high was $24.67. Thus the play is open. However, we would look for a bounce from here or near the $23.50 region before considering new positions. Our short-term target is $26.50. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher near $28 or $30. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $42 target.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 196 thousand

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Titanium Metals - TIE - cls: 37.75 change: -0.28 stop: 33.95

TIE experienced some profit taking on Monday. We don't see anything alarming about the 0.7% pull back. Overall there are no changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the $39.50-40.00 range. The P&F chart shows a triple-top breakout buy signal with a $54 target.

Picked on February 14 at $35.24
Change since picked: + 2.51
Earnings Date 02/13/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
 

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 33.62 chg: -0.24 stop: 35.16

The AVID battle between the bulls and bears continues. Shares appeared to produce another failed rally under the $34 level today but traders bought the dip near its rising 10-dma this afternoon. We hesitate to suggest new short positions at this time. The P&F chart points to a $29.00 target. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 1.03
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 28.99 chg: -0.34 stop: 31.26

Most quote services will probably list CPSI's intraday low at $27.40. However, we believe that's just a bad tick. A quick look at the intraday chart doesn't show any trades under $28.89. The trend in CPSI still looks bearish but today's trading is not a clear enough failed rally that we'd want to open new positions here. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 0.53
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Cash Amer. - CSH - close: 41.71 chg: -0.45 stop: 44.55

CSH's bearish breakdown under short-term support at the $42.00 level looks like a new entry point for shorts. We would have liked to have seen stronger volume on the breakdown. Instead we'll take the new MACD sell signal on the daily chart. Our target has been the exponential 200-dma, which is where CSH bounced back in January. The 200-ema has been rising so we need to adjust our target to the 39.25-39.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $33.00 target.

Picked on February 11 at $42.51
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 390 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

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