Long Play Updates
eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 30.83 chg: -1.10 stop: 29.49
Monday looks like it will be the day that EBAY falls into our suggested entry range to consider long positions. The stock produced a failed rally near $32.00 on Friday morning and plunged 3.4% by the closing bell. We see potential support near $30.00 and its 200-dma (currently 29.80). Our suggested entry range is the $30.50-30.00 zone. We strongly suggest that readers wait and watch for a bounce first before initiating positions. It would not take much for EBAY to plunge right past the $30 level and hit our stop loss a $29.49 but we don't want to use a wider stop loss at this time. The stock lost over 9% last week so we're expecting some sort of oversold bounce soon. If triggered we will have two targets. Our first, more conservative target, will be the $33.85-34.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $37.00-38.00 zone.
Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Level 3 Comm. - LVLT - cls: 6.29 chg: -0.04 stop: 6.46
There has not been any change from our LVLT new play description from Wednesday night. The stock's overall trend is still bullish. However, short-term the bounce is struggling and shares look poised to retest technical support at its rising 50-dma near $6.14. If the 50-dma fails then the next level of support is the $6.00 mark. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a bounce from either level. We're still suggesting that readers wait for a new relative high over resistance near $6.75-6.80. We're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $6.81. If triggered our target is the $7.35-7.40 range as LVLT has long-term resistance near $7.40. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher near $8.00. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $12.75 target.
Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see
Short Play Updates
Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.95 chg: +0.20 stop: 34.25*new*
AVID bounced again on Friday and the relative strength was something of a surprise. Friday's rebound did stall under Wednesday's close so it was just enough to "fill the gap". However, we are not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note we are adjusting the stop loss to $34.25. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 27.49 chg: -0.78 stop: 30.05*new*
CPSI is breaking down to new eighteen-month lows. Shares lost 2.75% on Friday and volume spike to above its daily average. The close under $28.00 looks like a new entry point for short positions. We are adjusting our stop loss to $30.05. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart's bearish target has fallen from $18 to $16. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!
Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Closed Long Plays
Aetna - AET - close: 44.21 change: -0.64 stop: 42.95
We are choosing to cut our losses in AET. The stock produced a very clear failed rally on Friday under $46 and near its 10-dma, now overhead. Shares look poised to drop toward $43.00 near its rising 50-dma. AET might bounce from its 50-dma or it could slip lower toward more tested support at its 100-dma around $42.00. We'd rather exit now and watch for a bounce near $42 as a potential entry point.
Picked on February 18 at $45.61
Intl. Speedway - ISCA - cls: 52.77 chg: -0.38 stop: 52.64
It's time to let go of ISCA. The stock produced its third failed rally in three days under its simple 10-dma. The stock looks poised to dip toward the 100-dma near $52.36 and possibly lower. We told readers on Thursday that if ISCA didn't show some strength on Friday we were cutting it loose.
on February 21 at $54.51
Ross Stores - ROST - close: 32.32 change: -0.31 stop: 31.45
Retail stocks struggled on Friday following a disappointing earnings report and guidance from Gap (GPS). Shares of ROST produced a very clear failed rally and look poised to retest support in the $31.50-31.75 zone. We're suggesting an early exit now to limit our losses. Readers can keep an eye on ROST for a rebound down the road if support holds above $31.00. We warned readers on Thursday that if ROST didn't breakout over the $33 level on Friday that we would probably drop it.
Picked on February 14 at $33.75
Closed Short Plays
Cash Amer. - CSH - close: 39.51 chg: -1.17 stop: 43.55
Target achieved. Market weakness on Friday helped influence CSH and shares produced another failed rally. The stock dropped back under the $40.00 level and toward technical support at its rising exponential 200-dma. Our target range was the $39.50-39.00 zone. We would keep an eye on CSH. A breakdown under its simple 200-dma near $38.70 or its January 2007 lows near $38.17 could be used as another bearish entry point.
Picked on February 11 at $42.51