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Long Play Updates

eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 30.35 chg: -0.47 stop: 29.49

Our bullish play in EBAY is now open. The stock dipped into our suggested entry range of $30.50-30.00. Our entry point was at $30.49. We would expect to see a bounce near support around $30.00 and its 200-dma. However, the market's sell-off is pretty nasty and is showing no signs of slowing down yet. We strongly suggest that readers wait for signs of a bounce first before initiating new bullish positions. If the market keeps dropping then EBAY will probably drop right along with it and we'll be stopped out at $29.49. Now that the play is open we have two targets. Our first, more conservative target, will be the $33.85-34.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $37.00-38.00 zone.

Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Change since picked: - 0.14
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18 million

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Level 3 Comm. - LVLT - cls: 6.09 chg: -0.19 stop: 6.46

We are still in a wait and see mode with LVLT and fortunately, we are comfortably on the sidelines. The stock has continued to pull back along with the broader markets. Today's breakdown under $6.20 and its 50-dma is bearish. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a bounce near $6.00 but we would definitely use a tight stop loss if you did. At the moment our plan is to buy a breakout over resistance near $6.80. We're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $6.81. If triggered our target is the $7.35-7.40 range as LVLT has long-term resistance near $7.40. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher near $8.00. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $12.75 target.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 37.8 million
 

Short Play Updates

Agilent Tech. - A - close: 30.69 chg: -0.03 stop: 32.55

Shares of A produced another failed rally under its 200-dma on Monday. This looks like another entry point for short positions. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. Traders have a choice to either watch for an oversold bounce and failed rally under $32.00 or wait for a new decline under potential support near $30.00. The H&S pattern projects a $26.50 target. We are aiming for the $28.50-27.50 range since A might have additional support near its September 2006 lows around $28.50. The P&F chart points to a $14 target. There doesn't not appear to be any significant amount of short interest in the stock.

Picked on March 04 at $30.72
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million

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Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.78 chg: -0.17 stop: 34.25

AVID tried to bounce again but the rebound stalled at the $33.50 mark. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 1.87
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

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Cons Energy - CNX - close: 34.27 chg: -0.71 stop: 36.86

Our new bearish play in CNX is now open. The stock experienced a lot of weakness early this morning. Shares gapped open lower at $34.59 and plunged to $32.62 before bouncing back. Our suggested trigger to short the stock was at $33.95. Fortunately, the rebound struggled and the stock closed down 2%. Now that the play is open our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. Readers have a choice to either look for a failed rally under $35.00 or wait for a new decline under $34.00 and/or its 50-dma before opening new positions.

Picked on March 05 at $33.95
Change since picked: + 0.32
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 27.00 chg: -0.49 stop: 30.05

CPSI set a new closing low for the last 18 months and the stock closed near its lows for the session, which is normally bearish for the next trading day. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart's bearish target has fallen from $18 to $16. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!

Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Change since picked: - 2.52
Earnings Date 01/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 97 thousand

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Federated Dept. - FD - close: 44.17 chg: -0.08 stop: 45.05

There is no change from our weekend play comments for FD. Volume continues to be very high but the stock isn't going anywhere, which could suggest we're seeing a lot of distribution. We suspect that given this market environment the next move will be down. However, nothing is guaranteed and FD has shown some relative strength the last couple of days by not selling off (much). Aggressive traders may want to consider positions now. We are suggesting a trigger to open plays at $43.43. If triggered our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/29/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.3 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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