Long Play Updates
Boardwalk Pipeline - BWP - cls: 36.70 chg: +0.22 stop: 35.35
BWP continues to show relative strength. The stock rose another 0.6% and came close to breaking out over resistance at the $37.00 level. Oil stocks got a boost today with a 1.9% rally in crude oil toward $62 a barrel. We want to see a breakout over resistance near $37.00 so we're suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $37.10. If triggered our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. Our stop will be $35.35. FYI: Average daily volume is a little low so stay more cautious than normal.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.03 chg: -0.31 stop: 29.49
EBAY struggled to build on yesterday's bounce. The stock failed to breakout above the 50-dma and the stock rolled over near yesterday's highs. We would expect another dip into the $30.50-30.00 range. Another pull back can be used as an entry point but we'd definitely wait for signs of a bounce before initiating new long positions. We have two targets. Our first, more conservative target, will be the $33.85-34.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $37.00-38.00 zone.
Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Level 3 Comm. - LVLT - cls: 6.22 chg: -0.02 stop: 6.46
We do not see any changes from our previous updates on LVLT. At the moment our plan is to buy a breakout over resistance near $6.80. We're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $6.81. If triggered our target is the $7.35-7.40 range as LVLT has long-term resistance near $7.40. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher near $8.00 or even consider buying a rebound over $6.30 (today's high). The P&F chart is very bullish with a $12.75 target.
Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Redwood Tr. - RWT - close: 54.76 chg: -0.04 stop: 52.45
RWT made an attempt to breakout over resistance near $55.00 and its 10-dma but failed. The intraday high was $55.19. Volume came in pretty strong at more than twice the daily average. The bulls and bears are really fighting it out near the $55 level. Some of the REITs failed to see any follow through on yesterday's bounce. If the sector continues lower then RWT might follow. We'll also need to keep an eye on the mortgage lenders. Currently our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $55.25. If triggered our target is the $59.00-60.00 range. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play. In addition to being a REIT, RWT also has exposure to the residential loan market, which has been getting killed as investors flee anything related to residential lending thanks to the carnage taking place in the sub-prime areas. Today that group, the sub-prime lenders, witnessed a sharp bounce but it may just be a bounce and nothing more. FYI: The P&F chart remains bearish given the recent sell-off. The most recent (and probably out of date) data put short interest at almost 7% of RWT's 26.4 million-share float.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
TEPPCO Part. - TPP - close: 42.70 chg: -0.18 stop: 41.95
We are a little disappointed that TPP failed to rally with the rest of the oil-related stocks. The 1.9% rally in crude oil lifted much of the sector. Shares of TPP stumbled and closed down 0.4%. the overall pattern remains bullish but readers can watch for a dip (or a bounce) near $42.50 as a new entry point. Our target is the $44.90-45.00 range. FYI: TPP announced today that they will present at an investor conference in New York tomorrow (March 8th) at 2:15 ET.
Picked on March 06 at $42.88
Short Play Updates
Agilent Tech. - A - close: 30.78 chg: -0.05 stop: 32.55
The next move in A might be down. Shares didn't move much today but the intraday chart shows what appears to be a failed rally near $31.00 late this afternoon. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. Traders have a choice to either watch for an oversold bounce and failed rally under $32.00 or wait for a new decline under potential support near $30.00. The H&S pattern projects a $26.50 target. We are aiming for the $28.50-27.50 range since A might have additional support near its September 2006 lows around $28.50. The P&F chart points to a $14 target. There doesn't not appear to be any significant amount of short interest in the stock. FYI: A announced an upcoming investor webcast for March 8th, 2007 8:30-12:00 ET.
Picked on March 04 at $30.72
Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 33.29 chg: -0.50 stop: 34.25
AVID produced another failed rally at the $34.00 level. Shares closed down 1.4% following yesterday's big bounce. AVID now appears to be stuck in a $32-34 trading range. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Consol Energy - CNX - close: 35.36 chg: +0.26 stop: 36.86
CNX bounced again, this time adding 0.7% and on relatively strong volume. The volume concerns us and more conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops. More aggressive traders might want to open shorts on a drop below $35.00 but we would suggest waiting for a new decline under old support near $34.00. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range.
Picked on March 05 at $33.95
Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 27.73 chg: +0.68 stop: 30.05
After multiple declines shares of CPSI produced an oversold bounce today. The stock rallied 2.5% and on relatively strong volume. Watch for a failed rally in the $29.00 region as a potential entry point for new plays. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart's bearish target has fallen from $18 to $16. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!
Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Federated Dept. - FD - close: 43.80 chg: -0.09 stop: 45.05
The upward momentum in FD continues to struggle. Shares produced another failed rally today and FD looks poised to move lower. Aggressive traders might want to jump in early right here. We'll stick to our plan and use a trigger at $43.43 as our suggested entry point. If triggered our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays