Long Play Updates
Boardwalk Pipeline - BWP - cls: 37.15 chg: +0.45 stop: 35.35
Our bullish play in BWP is now open. The stock actually gapped open higher at $36.95 and then spiked to $37.50 before consolidating sideways for the rest of the session. Our suggested entry point to go long the stock was at $37.10. The close over resistance near $37.00 is certainly bullish but we are concerned about the lack of volume behind today's move, which should signal the bulls to be cautious. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. Our stop will be $35.35. FYI: Average daily volume is a little low so stay more cautious than normal.
Picked on March 08 at $37.10
eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.02 chg: -0.01 stop: 29.49
EBAY under performed both the broader market and the Internet sector. The stock produced another failed rally near its 50-dma and that suggests the stock might dip back toward support near $30 and its 200-dma. Wait for signs of a bounce in the $30.00-30.50 region before considering new long plays. We have two targets. Our first, more conservative target, will be the $33.85-34.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $37.00-38.00 zone.
Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Level 3 Comm. - LVLT - cls: 6.22 chg: -0.00 stop: 6.46
There is no change from our previous comments on LVLT. The stock is still consolidating although it's worth noting that today's action looks a little bearish. Our plan is to buy a breakout over resistance near $6.80. We're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $6.81. If triggered our target is the $7.35-7.40 range as LVLT has long-term resistance near $7.40. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher near $8.00 or even consider buying a rebound over $6.30 (today's high). The P&F chart is very bullish with a $12.75 target.
Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Redwood Tr. - RWT - close: 55.19 chg: +0.43 stop: 52.45
Uh-oh! Bulls need to be careful here. Today's trading in shares of RWT looks like a bearish failed rally pattern. The stock gapped open higher at $55.36 and continued to rise until it hit $56.79 and then the stock quickly gave back most of its gains. The bad news is that our suggested trigger to go long was at $55.25 so the gap open this morning would have opened the play. We are not suggesting new positions unless we see a bounce from the $55.00 (maybe the $54.50) level. More conservative traders, if you opened positions today, you may want to exit early or significantly tighten your stops due to the afternoon bearish reversal. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range. More conservative traders may want to avoid this play altogether. In addition to being a REIT, RWT also has exposure to the residential loan market, which has been getting killed as investors flee anything related to residential lending thanks to the carnage taking place in the sub-prime areas. Today that group, the sub-prime lenders, witnessed a sharp bounce but it may just be a bounce and nothing more. FYI: The P&F chart remains bearish given the recent sell-off. The most recent (and probably out of date) data put short interest at almost 7% of RWT's 26.4 million-share float.
Picked on March 08 at $55.36 *gap higher*
TEPPCO Part. - TPP - close: 42.70 chg: -0.00 stop: 41.95
Today was a non-event for TPP. The stock closed unchanged with shares trading in a 50-cent range. The overall pattern remains bullish but readers can watch for a dip (or a bounce) near $42.50 as a new entry point. Our target is the $44.90-45.00 range.
Picked on March 06 at $42.88
Short Play Updates
Agilent Tech. - A - close: 31.74 chg: +0.96 stop: 32.55
Rumors that Agilent might be a takeover target fueled a sharp rally this morning. The stock gapped open higher at $31.00 and challenged overhead resistance near $32.00 and its exponential 200-dma before paring its gains and closing with a 3.1% rise for the session. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The P&F chart points to a $14 target. There doesn't not appear to be any significant amount of short interest in the stock.
Picked on March 04 at $30.72
Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 33.54 chg: +0.29 stop: 34.25
AVID is still trading under resistance near $34.00 but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Consol Energy - CNX - close: 36.24 chg: +0.88 stop: 36.86
Danger! The bounce in CNX is starting to look like a bona fide rally. Volume on today's 2.4% gain was above average. The stock came within four cents of our stop loss at $36.86. More conservative traders may want to abandon the play immediately. We're not willing to quit just yet since the rally struggled with overhead technical resistance at its simple 200-dma. The recent move is starting to look like the right shoulder on a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. We're not suggesting new short positions at this time.
Picked on March 05 at $33.95
Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 28.01 chg: +0.28 stop: 30.05
The market-wide rally continued to fuel the oversold bounce in CPSI. Shares rose 1% but still closed under its simple 10-dma. The afternoon pull back looks like a failed rally at its short-term trendline of resistance. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart's bearish target has fallen from $18 to $16. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!
Picked on February 06 at
Federated Dept. - FD - close: 44.94 chg: +1.14 stop: 45.05
The rally in FD on Thursday is a bit of a mystery. The company reported same store sales of +1.2%, which were under analysts' estimates for a gain of +2.8%. The company blamed the extreme cold weather for the slow down. There were some reports that today's rally in FD was due to positive analysts comments on the stock but we couldn't find them. At any rate the rally stalled near resistance at the $45.00 level. Nimble traders may want to consider switching sides and going long if FD can breakout over $45.00. We'll certainly drop FD as a bearish candidate if shares close over $45.00. Right now the plan is to short the stock at $43.43. If triggered our target is the $40.50-40.00 range.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays