Long Play Updates
Bristow Group - BRS - close: 36.06 chg: +0.18 stop: 34.59
BRS ignored any weakness in crude oil on Monday and the stock posted a 0.5% gain. The rebound has now broken through the $36.00 level and faces its next hurdle at the 50-dma near $36.20. We would still consider new positions here or on any dip or bounce above $35.00. Our target is the February highs in the $38.40-38.50 range. This is an oil services company so keep an eye on the OSX index and the price of crude. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target.
Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Boardwalk Pipeline - BWP - cls: 37.86 chg: +0.36 stop: 35.35
BWP surged to a new all-time high of $38.48 this afternoon. Unfortunately, the stock gave back some of its gains but still closed with a 0.9% gain. The MACD on the daily chart continues to improve following the recent buy signal. We are a little concerned with today's trading, which looks like a short-term top or bearish reversal. Look for a dip back towards the $37 region, which should act as support. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. Our stop will be $35.35. FYI: Average daily volume is a little low so stay more cautious than normal.
Picked on March 08 at $37.10
Canadan Nat.Res. - CNQ - cls: 52.07 chg: +0.04 stop: 48.95
Volume dried up on CNQ today and shares spent the session trading sideways. More aggressive traders may want to consider long positions now or on a pull back near $51.00. We want to see a breakout over $53.00 so we're suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $53.05. If triggered our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $56.50. FYI: A rally past $53.00 would created a new P&F buy signal. This is another oil-related play so keep an eye on the price of crude. Our time frame is eight to ten weeks.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.00 chg: +0.18 stop: 29.49
EBAY tried to bounce today and managed a 0.5% gain but shares spent the session in a relatively narrow range. Furthermore the stock remains under short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma. We would wait for signs of a bounce in the $30.00-30.50 range before considering new long positions. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. We have two targets. Our first, more conservative target, will be the $33.85-34.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $37.00-38.00 zone. FYI: Believe it or not but in spite of the big decline two weeks ago the P&F chart is still bullish.
Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Level 3 Comm. - LVLT - cls: 6.34 chg: +0.02 stop: 6.46
There is no change from our weekend comments on LVLT. We remain bullish on the stock with its pattern of higher lows. However, we're going to stick to our plan and wait for a breakout over resistance near $6.80. We're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock at $6.81. If triggered our target is the $7.35-7.40 range as LVLT has long-term resistance near $7.40. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher near $8.00 or even consider buying a rebound over $6.30 (today's high). The P&F chart is very bullish with a $12.75 target.
Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Redwood Tr. - RWT - close: 55.07 chg: -0.63 stop: 53.39
RWT continues to trade sideways. The stock appeared to test technical support at its exponential 200-dma today. We would look for a rise past $55.85 before opening new bullish positions. More conservative traders may want a tighter stop. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range. In addition to being a REIT, RWT also has exposure to the residential loan market, which has been getting killed as investors flee anything related to residential lending thanks to the carnage taking place in the sub-prime areas. Today that group, the sub-prime lenders, witnessed a sharp bounce but it may just be a bounce and nothing more. FYI: The P&F chart remains bearish given the recent sell-off. The most recent (and probably out of date) data put short interest at almost 7% of RWT's 26.4 million-share float.
Picked on March 08 at $55.36 *gap higher*
TEPPCO Part. - TPP - close: 42.90 chg: -0.07 stop: 41.95
We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on TPP. The stock continues to trade sideways inside its larger, bullish channel. The overall pattern remains bullish and we would continue to suggest long positions with TPP above $42.50. Our target is the $44.90-45.00 range.
Picked on March 06 at $42.88
Short Play Updates
Agilent Tech. - A - close: 32.14 chg: +0.38 stop: 32.55
Danger! More conservative traders may want to exit any short positions in A right now. The stock displayed relative strength on Monday and broke out over the $32.00 level, which was resistance last week. We are not suggesting new plays.
Picked on March 04 at $30.72
Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 33.34 chg: -0.11 stop: 34.25
We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on AVID. AVID remains in the $32-34.00 trading range. The larger pattern is bearish with a trend of lower highs but there is no guarantee that the next move is going to be lower. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops toward resistance near $34.00. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (January) data puts short interest at 12.2% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.
Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Consol Energy - CNX - close: 35.63 chg: -0.33 stop: 36.86
CNX continued to slip following Friday's bearish reversal. The stock lost another 0.9%. Aggressive traders might want to use this as a new entry point for shorts. We would prefer to see more downward follow through before initiating new positions. CNX still has short-term support near $34.00. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range.
Picked on March 05 at $33.95
Comptr.Prog.&Sys - CPSI - cls: 26.68 chg: -0.09 stop: 29.52
We don't see any changes from our weekend comments on CPSI. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit now to lock in a potential gain. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $25.50-25.00 range. The P&F chart's bearish target has fallen from $18 to $16. The most recent (January) data puts short interest at 10.3% of the company's 9.3 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and with such a small float it really increases the risk of a short squeeze so trade cautiously!
Picked on February 06 at $29.52
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays
Federated Dept. - FD - close: 45.07 chg: +0.58 stop: 45.05
We are dropping FD as a potential bearish short candidate. The stock has broken out from its recent trading range and broken out above significant resistance at the $45.00 level. Nimble traders may actually want to switch directions and buy the stock here. We were suggesting traders short FD if shares hit $43.43, which did not occur.
Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER