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Long Play Updates

Bristow Group - BRS - close: 35.81 chg: -0.06 stop: 34.59

Rotation out of the current month futures contracts was blamed for the sharp sell-off in crude oil on Friday afternoon. Yet shares of BRS, an oil services stock, actually traded higher on Friday afternoon. Volume spiked to more than twice the daily average and we couldn't find any specific news that might account for the volume. The only thing we can see on the chart is that BRS produced its third bounce from technical support at its rising 100-dma. This looks like another entry point but readers might feel more comfortable waiting for a trade over $36.00 or a new relative high over $36.15 and its 50-dma before initiating positions. Our target is the February highs in the $38.40-38.50 range. This is an oil services company so keep an eye on the OSX index and the price of crude. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target.

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: - 0.07
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand


Boardwalk Pipeline - BWP - cls: 38.50 chg: +0.24 stop: 35.85*new*

BWP continues to show relative strength. The stock spiked to another new all-time high on Friday morning at $38.85. Shares pared their gains by the closing bell but still closed up 0.6%. We are somewhat concerned by the shrinking volume. Lack of volume on the rally is not a bullish sign. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. If you don't feel like chasing the stock then look for another dip into the $37.50-37.00 range. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $35.85. FYI: Average daily volume is a little low so stay more cautious than normal.

Picked on March 08 at $37.10
Change since picked: + 1.40
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 182 thousand


Canadan Nat.Res. - CNQ - cls: 50.63 chg: -0.47 stop: 48.95

Weakness in crude oil prices weighed on oil stocks and shares of CNQ lost 0.9%. The stock is pulling back toward what should be technical support near its simple 200-dma. Aggressive traders might want consider buying another bounce near the 200-dma (around 50.40). We're going to stick to our plan. Our trigger to go long is at $53.05. If triggered our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $56.50. FYI: A rally past $53.00 would created a new P&F buy signal. This is another oil-related play so keep an eye on the price of crude. Our time frame is seven to eight weeks.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.74 chg: +0.00 stop: 29.85*new*

The broader markets failed to build on the mid-week bounce but shares of EBAY managed to resist any Friday profit taking. The stock closed unchanged and clung to its simple 50-dma. We would still expect a dip toward 31.15-31.10, to fill the Thursday-morning gap, which traders could use as a new entry point. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $29.85. We have two targets. Our first, more conservative target, will be the $33.85-34.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $37.00-38.00 zone.

Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Change since picked: + 1.25
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18 million


Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 28.36 chg: +0.00 stop: 27.49

HP is another stock that closed unchanged on Friday's session. However, as an oil services stock, unchanged might be considered a show of relative strength since oil-related stocks were trending lower on Friday. The stock looks poised to dip toward $28.00 and maybe the $27.75 region. Aggressive traders might want to use a bounce as a new entry point. We're going to stick to our plan. Our suggested trigger to go long the stock is at $28.76. The Point & Figure chart looks very bullish with a bounce from support and a forecasted target of $39. We are aiming for the $32.50 mark. We do expect some resistance near $30.00.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million


Imergenet Inc - IIG - cls: 20.25 chg: +0.13 stop: 18.95

IIG tried to build on Thursday's gains but didn't make it very far. Shares hit an intraday high of $20.75 on Friday. More importantly it looks like traders were buying the dip near $20.00 late Friday afternoon. This looks like another entry point. However, if the markets dip then we'd look for a pull back in IIG toward its 10-dma around $19.00. Readers should be aware that IIG does have additional overhead resistance at its 50-dma and 100-dma near $21.65. However, we're aiming for the $23.25-23.50 range. The P&F chart for the stock looks pretty bullish with a $25.50 target.

Picked on March 15 at $20.35
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 709 thousand


Short QQQ Proshares - PSQ - close: 64.37 chg: +0.13 stop: 63.49

Our play on the PSQ may not be over yet. The lack of follow through higher on Friday was bearish for the NASDAQ. Granted there wasn't any heavy selling but the market acts like it wants to retest the recent lows. If the NDX-100 turns lower then the PSQ will rise in value since it's an inverse ETF on the NDX. Consider new plays on a rise in the PSQ above $65.00 or better yet above $65.50, which looks like resistance. Our target is the $68.00-68.25 range.

Picked on March 13 at $64.98
Change since picked: - 0.61
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 138 thousand


TEPPCO Part. - TPP - close: 43.97 chg: +0.00 stop: 41.95

We are surprised that so many of the stocks on our newsletter closed unchanged on Friday. TPP makes the third stock that failed to move in spite of Friday's volatility. TPP merely counted time churning sideways near the $44.00 level. We remain bullish on the stock. However, if the market dips next week then look for a dip or a bounce in TPP near $43.50 or $43.00 as a new entry point. Our target is the $44.90-45.00 range.

Picked on March 06 at $42.88
Change since picked: + 1.09
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 142 thousand

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.88 chg: -0.10 stop: 34.05 *new*

Unfortunately, we have little new to report on for AVID. The stock's larger pattern is bearish but short-term the stock remains in its $32.00-34.00 trading range. We're going to tighten our stop loss to $34.05. More conservative traders may want to try and exit on a dip near $32.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (February) data puts short interest at 12.6% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 1.77
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand

Closed Long Plays

Level 3 Comm. - LVLT - cls: 6.18 chg: -0.03 stop: 6.46

We are dropping LVLT from the newsletter as a bullish candidate. The longer-term trend is still bullish but upward momentum is definitely slowing. It was our plan to buy a breakout over resistance near $6.80 but the stock never got close enough to open the play.

Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 37.8 million

Closed Short Plays


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