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Long Play Updates

Bristow Group - BRS - close: 36.14 chg: +0.33 stop: 34.59

Strength in the energy stocks helped BRS breakout over the $36.00 level. The technical indicators continue to improve. If we wanted to complain about something it would be the failure to close over the simple 50-dma and the lack of volume behind today's move. This looks like another bullish entry point. Our target is the February highs in the $38.40-38.50 range. This is an oil services company so keep an eye on the OSX index and the price of crude. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target.

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand


Boardwalk Pipeline - BWP - cls: 37.57 chg: -0.93 stop: 35.85

Warning! The trading in BWP today looks like a bearish reversal. Technically the stock painted a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is typically seen as a bearish reversal, especially at the top of a bullish trend. The weakness is putting a crimp in the MACD and the stock appears to be creating a bearish divergence between price and the MACD. If you look at an intraday chart you can see how BWP just fell off a cliff in the last 30 minutes of trading. The move is a reaction to new that BWP has announced a public offering of 7.5 million units "representing limited partner interest". If these "units" represent shares of stock then we would expect a bigger sell-off tomorrow since BWP only has 18.7 million shares of stock in its float. Investors don't like having their interest diluted.

Picked on March 08 at $37.10
Change since picked: - 0.47
Earnings Date 05/14/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 182 thousand


Canadan Nat.Res. - CNQ - cls: 51.70 chg: +1.07 stop: 48.95

We do not see any changes from our weekend update. Aggressive traders might want consider buying the bounce. We're going to stick to our plan. Our trigger to go long is at $53.05. If triggered our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. We do expect some resistance near $56.50. FYI: A rally past $53.00 would created a new P&F buy signal. This is another oil-related play so keep an eye on the price of crude. Our time frame is seven to eight weeks.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.71 chg: -0.03 stop: 29.85

Positive analyst comments and a recommendation to buy EBAY ahead of its next earnings report were not enough to lift the stock for more than a few minutes. Shares spiked higher at the open and hit $32.48 but quickly gave back all of its gains and actually closed in the red. We remain bullish but today's action is worrisome. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our first, more conservative target, will be the $33.85-34.00 range. Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $37.00-38.00 zone.

Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Change since picked: + 1.22
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18 million


Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 29.35 chg: +0.99 stop: 27.49

It was a strong day for HP. The stock gapped open higher at $28.77 and then soared to a 3.49% gain. Our suggested entry point was at $28.76 so we would have been triggered at the open. Fueling the rally in HP was some M&A activity between a couple of oil drillers with HERO making a bid for THE. Now that our play in HP is open our target is the $32.50 mark. We do expect some resistance near $30.00.

Picked on March 19 at $28.77 *gap higher*
Change since picked: + 0.59
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million


Imergenet Inc - IIG - cls: 19.65 chg: -0.60 stop: 18.95

IIG struggled on Monday and eventually closed down almost 3%. This relative weakness on a day when most tech stocks were marching higher is a cause for concern. We would watch for a bounce near its 10-dma around $19.20 or a new rally past $2.20-2.25 as a new entry point. Readers should be aware that IIG does have additional overhead resistance at its 50-dma and 100-dma near $21.65. However, we're aiming for the $23.25-23.50 range. The P&F chart for the stock looks pretty bullish with a $25.50 target.

Picked on March 15 at $20.35
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 709 thousand


Rentech - RTK - close: 2.54 chg: -0.10 stop: 2.23

After last week's big bounce a little bit of profit taking in RTK is to be expected. We just didn't expect it on a day where most of the market was trading higher. Fortunately, RTK held on to short-term support near $2.50 at least for now. We would use a bounce from here as a new entry point. We are going to use a relatively wide stop loss because shares have been so volatile lately and this makes the play a little more high-risk. We'll set the stop at $2.23. Our target will be the $3.40-3.50 range.

Picked on March 18 at $ 2.64
Change since picked: - 0.10
Earnings Date 05/11/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 915 thousand


TEPPCO Part. - TPP - close: 43.90 chg: -0.07 stop: 41.95

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on TPP. The stock didn't move much and remains under the $44.00 level. A dip toward $43.50 or $43.00 could be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $44.90-45.00 range.

Picked on March 06 at $42.88
Change since picked: + 1.02
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 142 thousand

Short Play Updates

Avid Tech. - AVID - close: 32.90 chg: +0.02 stop: 34.05

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments on AVID. More conservative traders may want to try and exit on a dip near $32.00. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range. FYI: Readers should note that the most recent (February) data puts short interest at 12.6% of AVID's 40.9 million-share float, which is relatively high and raises the risk of a short squeeze.

Picked on February 05 at $34.65
Change since picked: - 1.75
Earnings Date 02/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 677 thousand


Flextronics - FLEX - cls: 11.04 chg: +0.03 stop: 11.51

FLEX managed a 3-cent bounce on Monday and considering the strength in tech stocks today the action in FLEX looks like relative weakness. Watch for a failed rally near $11.20 or a new relative low under $10.90 as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to see a decline under $10.65 first before initiating positions. If you choose the lower entry point then tighten your stop loss. We'll set our stop at $11.51 for now. If you want to reduce your risk try a stop above $11.31 or above $11.20 but that raises the risk you may get stopped out on an intraday spike. Our target is the $10.10-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. FYI: The most recent data put short interest at a minor 1.7% of the float.

Picked on March 18 at $11.01
Change since picked: + 0.03
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.0 million


Tellabs - TLAB - close: 10.08 chg: +0.12 stop: 10.26

Uh-oh! TLAB is not cooperating. Shares rose 1.2% and produced a bullish breakout over the simple 10-dma. Our weekend comments said we were suggesting positions with TLAB under $10.00 and shares never traded under $10.00 today. Wait for a new decline under $10.00 or $9.90 before initiating positions. Our target is the $9.10-9.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart points to a $2.00 target. The most recent data put short interest at a minor 2.2% of the float.

Picked on March 18 at $ 9.96
Change since picked: + 0.12
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million

Closed Long Plays

Short QQQ Proshares - PSQ - close: 63.70 chg: -0.67 stop: 63.49

It doesn't look good for the PSQ. Strength in tech stocks lifted the NASDAQ 100 index and the NDX looks poised to breakout higher. The PSQ is an inverse ETF so as the NDX goes up the PSQ goes down. We're suggesting an early exit in the PSQ to cut our losses before we get stopped out at $63.49.

Picked on March 13 at $64.98
Change since picked: - 1.28
Earnings Date 00/00/00 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 138 thousand

Closed Short Plays


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