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Long Play Updates

Bright Horizons - BFAM - cls: 38.35 chg: +0.12 stop: 37.45

If you're feeling optimistic then the good news with BFAM is that shares failed to experience any real follow through lower after Friday's sell-off. Traders appeared to buy the dip but volume was below average. It would have been nice to see BFAM dip to $37.70 or $37.50 to fill the gap from last Thursday. If that occurred we would have had a bit more confidence buying today's bounce. We hesitate to suggest new positions with our target at the $39.85-40.00 range.

Picked on March 21 at $38.62 *gap higher*
Change since picked: - 0.27
Earnings Date 05/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 185 thousand

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Bristow Group - BRS - close: 36.96 chg: -0.16 stop: 34.99

BRS struggled to post any gains even though crude oil and the oil services index both closed higher. We're not suggesting new positions at current levels. If you're looking for a new entry point then watch for a dip near $36.50 maybe $36.00. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop near $35.30. Our target is the February highs in the $38.40-38.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target.

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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Countrywide Fincl. - CFC - cls: 36.24 chg: -0.59 stop: 33.95

What happened to the bounce in CFC? It was bombarded with a triple-punch of bad news. First and foremost was the worse than expected new home sales that sparked the market sell-off. Second, were negative comments from Goldman Sachs, who reiterated their "sell" rating on the stock. Third was news that Morgan Stanley (MS) had decided against keeping the $2.5 billion in loans they received from New Century as compensation for a $2.5 billion line of credit. MS announced it was planning to sell the mortgage loans at auction. This prompted a new round of bankruptcy fears for New Century and that pessimism weighed on the mortgage lenders. Overall the afternoon bounce in CFC looks like a new entry point to us but readers may want to see a new rally past $36.85 before initiating positions. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. We're listing a conservative target in the $39.85-40.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. FYI: We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 25 at $36.83
Change since picked: - 0.59
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.5 million

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Canadan Nat.Res. - CNQ - cls: 54.36 chg: +0.56 stop: 48.95

Rising tensions with Iran over the 15 British soldiers it has hostage pushed crude oil prices higher on Monday. This lifted the energy stocks and CNQ rose over 1% to breakout above the $54.00 level. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. The rally past $53.00 has produced a brand new Point & Figure chart buy signal with a $62 target. We do expect some resistance near $56.00-56.50.

Picked on March 21 at $53.05
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 33.22 chg: +1.39 stop: 29.85

Goldman Sachs raised their earnings estimates on EBAY and reiterated their "buy" rating and $40 price target. This positive press helped fuel a 4.3% rally in EBAY and a new four-week high. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. We have two targets. Our first, more conservative target, will be the $33.85-34.00 range, since EBAY has resistance near the $34.00 level. Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $37.00-38.00 zone. FYI: We do not want to hold over the late April earnings.

Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Change since picked: + 2.73
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18 million

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EMC Corp. - EMC - cls: 13.66 chg: -0.04 stop: 12.74

Some of the hardware stocks were posting gains with the GHA hardware index rising 0.8%. EMC under performed its peers and closed down 0.29% after producing another failed rally at the $13.90 level this morning. The morning bounce near $13.50 looked like a new entry point but if the major averages are weak again tomorrow don't be surprised to see EMC dip toward $13.25. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop toward $13.00. Our target is the $14.50-15.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish from the February-March sell-off.

Picked on March 21 at $13.26
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 04/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 29.1 million

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 30.84 chg: +0.19 stop: 27.95

Rising crude and a strong gain for energy stocks helped HP post another score in the plus column. The stock is challenging the $31.00 level and continues to look short-term overbought. It could get more overbought if money managers decide to buy more to dress up their portfolios for the end of the quarter. More conservative traders may want to take some money off the table or lower their target into the $31.75-32.00 range. We're keeping our target at $32.50 for now. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on March 19 at $28.77 *gap higher*
Change since picked: + 2.07
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - cls: 54.39 chg: +0.05 stop: 52.75

We do not see any changes from our weekend comments. If the markets rally and if stocks see any window dressing then KLAC could be an attractive target. The stock is up for the quarter and is nearing significant resistance at the $55.00 level. We're suggesting a trigger to buy the stock on a breakout at $55.15. If triggered our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. Before opening positions consider our time frame. We do not want to hold over the mid-April earnings report. That gives us about three weeks, which may be a little optimistic. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target. Nimble traders may also want to consider an alternative entry on a dip or bounce near $53.00.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Northwest Pipe Co. - NWPX - cls: 38.49 chg: +1.64 stop: 33.99

It looks like news leaked early for NWPX. After the closing bell today the company announced a $12 million order from a construction company hired for the city of Aurora, Colorado. Yet the move in the stock price happened earlier today. Shares of NWPX opened sideways but shortly after 11:00 a.m. the stock vaulted higher to close with a 4.4% gain on strong volume. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The P&F chart points to a $53 target.

Picked on March 25 at $36.85
Change since picked: + 1.64
Earnings Date 03/22/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 57 thousand

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Rentech - RTK - close: 3.23 chg: +0.32 stop: 2.49

We didn't see anything specific to account for the 11% rally in RTK today. It could have been the situation with Iran and the rising cost of crude oil. Whatever the case shares surged higher on strong volume. The stock is now up about 22% from our picked price and we strongly suggest that readers consider taking some profits now and exiting early. As a matter of fact we are adjusting our target from $3.40-3.50 to $3.28-3.30 to account for potential resistance at the November low and the falling 50-dma. More aggressive traders may want to stick with our original target. FYI: Don't forget that RTK is building coal-to-liquid fuel plants and with crude oil rising investors may turn more attention toward alternative energy stocks.

Picked on March 18 at $ 2.64
Change since picked: + 0.59
Earnings Date 05/11/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 915 thousand

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Titanium Metals - TIE -cls: 36.90 chg: +0.35 stop: 34.49

TIE weathered the market weakness this morning relatively well. We see the intraday bounce as a new entry point to buy the stock. In the news today TIE announced plans to begin a new titanium sponge facility. Another headline hit after the closing bell. Valhi Inc. (NYSE:VHI), who is the majority shareholder of TIE, completed a dividend to investors in the form of TIE stock. Post-dividend VHI still held over 51% of TIE's outstanding shares. You can see the details here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070326/dam042.html?.v=78
This news had TIE trading lower after hours around $36.50. We would suggest buying another dip in the $36.00-36.50 zone. Actually we'd watch for a dip into the $36.50-35.00 zone as a potential entry point - just wait for signs of a bounce first. Our target is the $39.85-40.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $54 target.

Picked on March 21 at $36.30
Change since picked: + 0.60
Earnings Date 05/15/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million

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TEPPCO Part. - TPP - close: 44.00 chg: +0.03 stop: 41.95

Traders bought the dip in TPP near $43.50 and shares almost broke out to a new high this afternoon. The trend remains bullish but if you missed the dip this morning we would not suggest new positions at this time. Our target is the $44.90-45.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $67 target.

Picked on March 06 at $42.88
Change since picked: + 1.12
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 142 thousand
 

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