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Long Play Updates

Apria Healthcare - AHG - cls: 33.22 chg: +0.80 stop: 30.79 *new*

AHG rallied sharply and broke out to a new 52-week high on news that the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) had announced a bidding program for the top ten markets. AHG, one of the larger providers of healthcare services, is expected to do relatively well in such an environment. Volume behind today's move was above average, which is technically a positive for the stock. We are raising our stop loss to $30.79, just under the rising 50-dma. Our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on March 27 at $32.37
Change since picked: + 0.85
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 910 thousand

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Bristow Group - BRS - close: 36.21 chg: -0.27 stop: 34.99

Positive comments about a potential peaceful resolution between Iran and Britain over the captive 15 British soldiers sent crude oil prices sliding 2% today. Most oil stocks managed to rally with the rest of the market today but BRS is still under performing. We hesitate to suggest new positions now but a bounce from its rising 100-dma near $35.80 could be used as a new entry point. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward last week's low. Our target is the February highs in the $38.40-38.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target.

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: + 0.33
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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Canadan Nat.Res. - CNQ - cls: 56.24 chg: +0.04 stop: 51.95

CNQ bounced back from any weakness this morning and managed to close in the green. Keep an eye on crude oil and an ear on the Iran-Britain conflict to see how the trading currents are going to flow with or against CNQ. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $71 target.

Picked on March 21 at $53.05
Change since picked: + 3.19
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 33.80 chg: +0.80 stop: 30.49*new*

Target achieved. Bear Stearns raised their earnings estimates on EBAY this morning and the stock reacted with a spike higher. The intraday high on EBAY was $34.27 and shares closed up 2.4%. Our conservative target was the $33.85-34.00 range. The $34.00 level has been significant resistance so we expected a struggle here. Aggressive traders might want to consider new positions if EBAY can produce a new relative high over $34.35. We're not suggesting new plays at this time. Our aggressive target in the $37-38 zone might be too optimistic given resistance at $34.00 and our plan to exit ahead of EBAY's April earnings. Please note that we're adjusting the stop to breakeven at $30.49.

Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Change since picked: + 3.31
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18 million

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EMC Corp. - EMC - cls: 14.29 chg: +0.20 stop: 13.24

The rally in EMC is picking up speed. Shares rose another 1.4% on Tuesday. Volume came in just above average, which is an improvement. EMC is starting to look a little short-term overbought so more conservative traders may want to take some money off the table right here. Yesterday we suggested that more conservative traders consider an early exit in the $14.30-14.35 range and the intraday high today was $14.39. We continue to target the $14.50-15.00 range. We are not suggesting new positions.

Picked on March 21 at $13.26
Change since picked: + 1.03
Earnings Date 04/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 29.1 million

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 30.70 chg: +0.07 stop: 28.49 *new*

We do not see any changes from our previous comments on HP. The overall trend is bullish but momentum has stalled. Shares are trading in the $30-31 trading range. More conservative traders may want to lock in a gain now or raise their stop toward $30.00. We are going to adjust our stop loss to $28.49. Our target is the $32.50 mark.

Picked on March 19 at $28.77 *gap higher*
Change since picked: + 1.93
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - cls: 54.22 chg: +0.71 stop: 52.75

KLAC is marching higher and nearing resistance at the $55.00 level. Our plan is to wait for a breakout over resistance near $55.00 with a trigger to go long at $55.15. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. Before opening positions consider our time frame. We do not want to hold over the mid-April earnings report. That gives us about two weeks, which may be too optimistic. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target.

Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/16/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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TEPPCO Part. - TPP - close: 44.56 chg: +0.11 stop: 43.45

TPP is still creeping higher and hit another new relative high today. Shares closed near their highs for the session, which bodes well for tomorrow. Our target is the $44.90-45.00 range. We are not suggesting new positions. The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a $67 target.

Picked on March 06 at $42.88
Change since picked: + 1.68
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 142 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Hovnanian - HOV - cls: 24.53 chg: +0.16 stop: 26.76

The National Association of Realtors released their pending home sales report today and the results were better than expected. This eased some of the fears for the homebuilders and the group bounced higher. The DJUSHB home index rose 1.48%. Shares of HOV closed up 0.6% and more importantly appeared to produce a failed rally at the $25.00 level. The trend in HOV remains bearish but we'd be cautious about opening new short positions given the market rally today and the stock's high short interest. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 range. FYI: HOV does have a very high amount of short interest at almost 35% of the 31.3 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze should the stock suddenly move higher!

Picked on April 02 at $24.69
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 06/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

Kinetic Concepts - KCI - cls: 54.00 chg: +2.58 stop: 48.89

Target achieved. Actually KCI exceeded our target in the $54.75-55.00 range. The intraday high today was $56.23. Fueling the big move was news that the U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) had approved a bidding program for the top ten U.S. markets. Investors believe that this decision was a big plus for KCI. The stock hit new 52-week highs before paring its gains.

Picked on April 01 at $50.64
Change since picked: + 0.78
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 962 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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