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Long Play Updates

Apria Healthcare - AHG - cls: 33.45 chg: +0.27 stop: 30.95*new*

AHG rallied to another new 52-week high on Thursday but pulled back from its highs to close up 0.8%. Volume came in low ahead of the long weekend. We remain bullish but if you're looking for a new entry point watch for a dip toward $33.00 or potentially near $32.50. We are inching up our stop loss to $30.95 keeping it just under the rising 50-dma. Our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May 1st earnings report.

Annotated chart:

Picked on March 27 at $32.37
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 910 thousand

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Bristow Group - BRS - close: 36.31 chg: +0.30 stop: 34.99

Crude oil has pulled back from its recent highs due to Iran releasing its British prisoners. Yet the pull back in oil stalled near its 200-dma. The commodity's trend still looks bullish. Short-term BRS has suffered a similar pull back but the larger pattern is a bullish one (see chart). We are suggesting caution. If you look at an intraday chart BRS appears to have produced a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern over the last four weeks. Thus far traders have been defending the stock near its rising 100-dma but many of the technical indicators are starting to worsen. We hesitate to suggest new long positions until we see BRS break the short-term trend of lower highs. Our target is the February highs in the $38.40-38.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target.

Annotated chart:

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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Canadan Nat.Res. - CNQ - cls: 56.82 chg: -0.19 stop: 53.05

CNQ came close to our $58.00-60.00 target on Thursday. Shares rallied to $57.70 early in the session. Unfortunately, Canadian stocks turned lower and CNQ lost its momentum for the day. CNQ is now up four out of the last five weeks and it might be due for a rest. We're not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to exit early to lock in a profit or at least tighten their stops. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and its target has risen from $71 to $74.

Annotated chart:

Picked on March 21 at $53.05
Change since picked: + 3.77
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 33.71 chg: -0.01 stop: 30.49

Time is running low for our play on EBAY. The stock hit our conservative target in the $33.85-34.00 range last week. Now shares are trying to breakout past resistance in the $34.00-34.40 range. The company is due to report earnings on April 18th and we plan to exit ahead of the announcement. We are not suggesting new plays but aggressive traders might want to consider new positions if EBAY can produce a new relative high over $34.40. Our aggressive target in the $37-38 zone might be too optimistic given our time frame.

Annotated chart:

Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Change since picked: + 3.22
Earnings Date 04/18/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18 million

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EMC Corp. - EMC - cls: 14.44 chg: +0.09 stop: 13.24

EMC continues to show relative strength. The stock hit another new relative high on Thursday. We are repeating our earlier suggestion that more conservative traders may want to exit now and lock in a gain. Our target is the $14.50-15.00 range. We are not suggesting new positions.

Annotated chart:

Picked on March 21 at $13.26
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 04/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 29.1 million

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 30.90 chg: +0.25 stop: 28.99 *new*

HP has rebounded back to the top of its $30.00-31.00 trading range with Thursday's 0.8% gain. Volume came in relatively well in spite of the long, holiday weekend. The stock looks poised to breakout higher but more conservative traders may want to consider locking in a gain now anyway. We are adjusting our stop loss to $28.99. You may want to use a tighter stop. Our target is the $32.50 mark. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher, especially since the P&F chart points to a $48 target.

Annotated chart:

Picked on March 19 at $28.77 *gap higher*
Change since picked: + 2.13
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - cls: 55.85 chg: +0.61 stop: 52.75

KLAC turned in a strong week. The stock was upgraded and shares broke out over significant resistance at the $55.00 level. We now have less than three weeks before the company reports earnings. If you missed the entry point at $55.15 we would still consider new positions now or on a dip back toward $55.00. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. Please note that we do not want to hold over the April earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target.

Annotated chart:

Picked on April 04 at $55.15
Change since picked: + 0.70
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Titan Intl - TWI - cls: 26.93 chg: +0.27 stop: 24.89

TWI spiked to another new all-time high on Thursday at $27.44. Shares pulled back from their highs and the move might be a short-term top. Volume came in above average on Thursday's 1% gain, most likely due to short covering. TWI does have relatively high short interest at 25% of the small 17 million-share float. Broken resistance near $26.00 should now be support. A pull back near $26 can be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $27.90-28.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop.

Annotated chart:

Picked on April 04 at $26.25
Change since picked: + 0.68
Earnings Date 04/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 339 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Hovnanian - HOV - cls: 24.49 chg: +0.53 stop: 26.16 *new*

Rival homebuilder Ryland homes (RYL) reported a first quarter loss but the results were better than expected. Plus the company had relatively positive comments on their outlook going forward. This inspired some bargain shopping and short covering in the sector. The DJUSHB index rose 1.6%. Shares of HOV out performed its peers with a 2.2% bounce but the stock had been looking oversold and due for a rebound. Readers can watch for a failed rally under $25.00 or its 10-dma near $25.50 as a new entry point for shorts. We are adjusting our stop loss down to $26.16. Our target is the $20.50-20.00 range. FYI: HOV does have a very high amount of short interest at almost 35% of the 31.3 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze should the stock suddenly move higher!

Annotated chart:

Picked on April 02 at $24.69
Change since picked: - 0.20
Earnings Date 06/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

TEPPCO Part. - TPP - close: 44.88 chg: +0.28 stop: 43.45

Target achieved. TPP's relative strength finally produced a surge toward round-number, psychological resistance near $45.00. The intraday high on Thursday was $44.99. Our target was the $44.90-45.00 range. The trend in TPP remains bullish but shares need to breakout past the March 2005 (all-time) high at $45.00. We suspect TPP will see a pull back first before making another breakout attempt. If you're willing to endure some volatility more aggressive traders may want to hold the stock longer.

chart:

Picked on March 06 at $42.88
Change since picked: + 2.00
Earnings Date 02/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 142 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None Today.

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