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Long Play Updates

Apria Healthcare - AHG - cls: 33.57 chg: +0.18 stop: 30.95

Traders continue to buy the dip in AHG near $33.00. Volume has dried up with shares churning sideways. The overall trend is still bullish but we'd be choosy about new entry points. Considering waiting for another dip near $33 or the 10-dma before initiating plays. Our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May 1st earnings report.

Picked on March 27 at $32.37
Change since picked: + 1.20
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 910 thousand

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Arrow Elctr. - ARW - cls: 40.55 chg: +0.57 stop: 37.74

ARW displayed relative strength on Wednesday with a 1.4% gain on above average volume. Powering the move may have been news that ARW has entered into a distribution agreement with MathStar Inc. (MATH). We remain bullish on ARW but we're concerned about the wider market, which would cool our enthusiasm to open new long positions. Our target is the $43.75-45.00 range. We don't have much time and plan to exit ahead of the April 24th earnings report. FYI: More aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop loss under the 50-dma.

Picked on April 09 at $40.15
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 896 thousand

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Brookfield Asset Mgmt - BAM - cls: 55.23 chg: +0.00 stop: 52.35

BAM traded in a relatively tight range and closed unchanged on the session. The good news, if you're feeling optimistic, is that shares held on to the $55.00 level, which could be seen as round-number support (or resistance). Given the market weakness today we'd expect BAM to dip back toward support near $54.00. We'd use a dip (or a bounce) near $54.00 as a new entry point to buy the stock. Our target is the $58.75-59.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings.

Picked on April 08 at $54.76
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 675 thousand

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Bristow Group - BRS - close: 36.74 chg: -0.04 stop: 34.99

The oil inventory numbers out this morning should have been bullish for crude oil but the commodity only posted a 12-cent gain. Oil stocks struggled to build on yesterday's rally. We remain bullish on BRS and given its rebound from today's lows we'd still consider new positions here but we are growing more concerned about the broader market. Our target is the February highs in the $38.40-38.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target.

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: + 0.86
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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Canadan Nat.Res. - CNQ - cls: 56.63 chg: -0.14 stop: 53.05

Unfortunately, we still don't see any significant changes from our previous comments on CNQ. The trend is bullish but momentum is stalling and volume is evaporating along with momentum. More conservative traders may want to strongly consider exiting early right here for a gain. We're not suggesting new positions. Our target remains the $58.00-60.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and its target has risen from $71 to $74.

Picked on March 21 at $53.05
Change since picked: + 3.58
Earnings Date 03/07/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 33.61 chg: -0.38 stop: 30.49

Yesterday EBAY look poised to breakout higher. Today the stock looks vulnerable to a dip toward $33.00. We are not suggesting new positions given our time frame. We do not want to hold over the April 18th earnings report and plan to exit at the closing bell on April 18th since EBAY reports that evening. More conservative traders should strongly consider exiting early right here.

Picked on March 05 at $30.49
Change since picked: + 3.12
Earnings Date 04/18/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 18 million

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Helmerich Payne - HP - cls: 31.30 chg: -0.03 stop: 28.99

Oil failed to move on the inventory numbers and oil stocks failed to show any relative strength today. We don't see any changes from our previous comments on HP. Our target is the $32.50 mark. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher, especially since the P&F chart points to a $48 target. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here to lock in a gain.

Picked on March 19 at $28.77 *gap higher*
Change since picked: + 2.40
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million

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James River Coal - JRCC - cls: 8.55 chg: -0.13 stop: 7.89

Our high-risk, speculative play in JRCC is still showing volatility. Shares dipped to $8.28 before traders bought the dip and reduced the session's loss to just 1.49%. This might be a new entry point given the intraday rebound but we hesitate to suggest new bullish positions given the market-wide weakness. Our target is the $9.90-10.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on April 08 at $ 8.15
Change since picked: + 0.40
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 647 thousand

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - cls: 55.36 chg: -1.01 stop: 52.75

A downgrade for KLAC sent the stock stumbling for a 1.79% loss. Volume came in at normal levels. Shares look poised to slip toward the 10-dma near $54.62 or the $54.00 level. Wait for signs of a bounce before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $59.50-60.00 range. Please note that we do not want to hold over the April earnings report. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish with a $69 target.

Picked on April 04 at $55.15
Change since picked: + 0.21
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Titan Intl - TWI - cls: 26.87 chg: -0.54 stop: 25.45

Uh-oh! Our early gains in TWI are evaporating. Shares lost almost 2% and could easily slip toward the 10-dma near $26.35 or the $26.00 level, where the stock should find short-term support. Volume has been very light so it's tough to determine how serious this move is. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $27.90-28.00 range.

Picked on April 04 at $26.25
Change since picked: + 0.62
Earnings Date 04/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 339 thousand

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UNIT Crp. - UNT - cls: 53.40 chg: +0.42 stop: 49.89

UNT continued to show relative strength on Wednesday. The stock rose almost 0.8% and volume came in above average on the move. The breakout past the $53.00 level is another bullish entry point. Our target is the $58.00-60.00 range. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Picked on April 08 at $51.95
Change since picked: + 1.45
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 407 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Hovnanian - HOV - cls: 22.85 chg: -0.71 stop: 26.01

HOV sank to another new 52-week low with today's 3% loss. Driving the homebuilder lower were a couple of items. The National Association of Realtors announced their 2007 forecast for a 0.7% decline in home prices. This is the first annual decline in about 40 years. If that wasn't enough another homebuilder said that they expect the market to get worse before it gets better. More conservative traders might want to consider tightening their stops toward $25.00. Our target for HOV is the $20.50-20.00 range. FYI: HOV does have a very high amount of short interest at almost 35% of the 31.3 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze should the stock suddenly move higher!

Picked on April 02 at $24.69
Change since picked: - 1.84
Earnings Date 06/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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