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Long Play Updates

Apria Healthcare - AHG - cls: 33.89 chg: +0.19 stop: 32.45 *new*

AHG managed a 0.56% gain on Friday but volume was low and we expected more relative strength from this stock. The overall trend is still very bullish but momentum is slowing so much that some of the short-term technicals are starting to look bearish. On Thursday we raised the stop loss to $32.45. Aggressive traders may want to leave their stop under the rising 50-dma. Conservative traders might want to tighten their stop towards $33.00. Our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May 1st earnings report.

Picked on March 27 at $32.37
Change since picked: + 1.52
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 910 thousand

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Brookfield Asset Mgmt - BAM - cls: 57.55 chg: +0.62 stop: 53.89*new*

The financials were a big part of any market strength this past week and BAM enjoyed some decent gains. Shares of BAM posted another 1% gain on Friday after testing short-term support on Thursday at the rising 10-dma. BAM is nearing our target in the $58.75-59.00 range. Unfortunately, the company issued some news on Friday after the closing bell that might delay any further rally. Here is a quote from their press release: "Brookfield Asset Management Inc. today announced that it has entered into an agreement, with a syndicate of underwriters led by Citi Markets & Banking and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, to issue for distribution to the public US$250 million 5.80% of debentures." Sometimes investors can overreact to news that a company is taking on more debt and BAM was trading slightly lower in after hours on Friday. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $53.89, just under what should be support near $54.00. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on April 08 at $54.76
Change since picked: + 2.79
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 675 thousand

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Basic Energy - BAS - cls: 25.63 chg: +0.51 stop: 23.19

The market's broad-based rally on Friday combined with a rebound in crude oil helped BAS produce a 2% gain. Volume was noteworthy at more than double the daily average, which is bullish. This bounce looks like a new entry point to go long the stock. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $24.00 or maybe the 10-dma near $24.50. Our target is the $29.00-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on April 12 at $25.39
Change since picked: + 0.24
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 160 thousand

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Bristow Group - BRS - close: 37.79 chg: +0.62 stop: 36.45*new*

A positive earnings report from Schlumberger (SLB) lent some strength to the oil service stocks. Shares of BRS gapped open higher and closed with a 1.66% gain. Volume continues to come in light for BRS, which is a caution sign. We are not suggesting new bullish positions in BRS at this time. Our target is the $38.40-38.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $36.45.

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: + 1.91
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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C.H.Robinson Worldwide - CHRW - cls: 51.85 chg: +0.54 stop: 50.25*new*

A new "out perform" rating combined with the market's early morning rally launched CHRW to new five-week highs. The stock gapped open higher at $52.98 and spiked to $53.98 before settling with a 1% gain on the session. Our target is the $54.00-54.50 range, so CHRW almost hit our target this morning. We don't have much time left so we're not suggesting new positions. CHRW is expected to report earnings after the market's close on Tuesday so we're planning to exit at the closing bell on April 24th. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $50.25.

Picked on April 16 at $50.25
Change since picked: + 1.60
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Cabot Oil - COG - close: 35.48 change: +0.82 stop: 33.45

Strength in the oil sector and crude on Friday produced a big bounce in COG. The stock rose 2.3% and on improving volume. We reiterate our earlier suggestion that more aggressive traders may want to buy a bounce (like this one). We are sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakout over resistance at $36.00. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $36.15. If triggered our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. We do not want to hold over the April 30th earnings report.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Citrix Sys. - CTXS - cls: 34.24 chg: +0.31 stop: 33.45*new*

CTXS produced a 0.9% gain on Friday but failed to breakout from its trading range. Investors might just let the stock trade sideways until its earnings report this week. CTXS is due to report after the bell on April 25th. We plan to exit at the closing bell on Wednesday to avoid holding over the announcement. We don't have much time left so we're not suggesting new positions. We are adjusting the stop loss to $33.45. More conservative traders may want to tighten theirs toward $33.75 just under last Thursday's low.

Picked on April 16 at $34.10
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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James River Coal - JRCC - cls: 8.99 chg: -0.01 stop: 8.49

In spite of the market's broad-based rally shares of JRCC closed virtually unchanged. Shares gapped open on Friday morning but quickly slipped back to the $9.00 level and coiled sideways in a tight range. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit now and try to capture a gain. Our target is the $9.90-10.00 range.

Annotated chart:

Picked on April 08 at $ 8.15
Change since picked: + 0.84
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 647 thousand

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KLA-Tencor - KLAC - cls: 54.21 chg: -0.01 stop: 53.45

The larger pattern on KLAC and the P&F chart remain bullish but short-term momentum is bearish. Shares failed to join the rest of the market on Friday's rally. Instead KLAC produced its third failed rally in three days at the 10-dma. That is definitely bearish and more conservative traders may just want to cut their losses right here. Another alternative would be to tighten stops toward Thursday's low near $53.68. We are not suggesting new positions. KLAC is due to report earnings after the close on April 26th. We plan to exit at the closing bell on Thursday to avoid the announcement. Keep an eye on the SOX semiconductor index. If the SOX heads lower next week odds are very good that KLAC will hit our stop loss.

Picked on April 04 at $55.15
Change since picked: - 0.94
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million

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Microsoft - MSFT - cls: 29.01 chg: +0.32 stop: 28.24 *new*

Strength in MSFT definitely contributed to the market's rally on Friday. The stock shot higher at the open to a new six-week high. Volume picked up on the move, which is bullish. Traders bought the midday dip, which is bullish. Unfortunately, we're almost out of time and MSFT still has technical resistance at its 100-dma directly overhead. We are going to suggest new long positions but more conservative traders may want to wait for a move over the 100-dma (29.14). We are raising the stop loss to $28.24, just under Thursday's low. We're also adjusting the target to $29.90-30.00. We plan to exit at the close on Thursday, April 26 to avoid earnings.

Picked on April 17 at $28.85
Change since picked: + 0.16
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 61.0 million

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NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - cls: 31.89 chg: +0.37 stop: 28.74 *new*

NVDA continues to show relative strength. The stock rose 1.1% and set a new six-week closing high. The trend of higher lows looks very bullish. If you're considering new positions keep two things in mind. NVDA has technical resistance at its 100-dma overhead and earnings are just around the corner, probably in two weeks time (or less). We are raising our stop loss to $28.74. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 range. FYI: The P&F chart is still bearish.

Picked on April 15 at $30.58
Change since picked: + 1.31
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.9 million

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UNIT Crp. - UNT - cls: 54.67 chg: +0.38 stop: 51.75

We remain bullish on oil but even after last week's pull back UNT still looks a little overbought. Yet if you study some of the intraday charts Friday's rebound starts to look like a new entry point. Traders are buying the dip near its rising 10-dma and short-term support near $54.00. If you do open new positions here consider using a tight stop under $54.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early to lock in a gain. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. Our target is the $58-60 range.

Picked on April 08 at $51.95
Change since picked: + 2.73
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 407 thousand
 

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