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Long Play Updates

Archer Daniels Midland - ADM - cls: 38.96 chg: +0.41 stop: 36.95

ADM continued to rally on Monday. Shares rose just over 1% to close at a new six-month high. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We are suggesting long positions following Friday's rally. There is some resistance near $40 but our target is the $42.00-42.50 range. We don't have much time. Our plan is to exit on Monday, April 30th to avoid holding over earnings on May 1st. FYI: Our target is a little optimistic given the time frame and more conservative traders may want to exit near $40.00.

Picked on April 22 at $38.55
Change since picked: + 0.41
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.7 million

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Apria Healthcare - AHG - cls: 33.92 chg: +0.03 stop: 32.45

AHG spent the session trading sideways. Things look a bit more optimistic if you look at the intraday chart and see the bullish trend higher for the session. We're not suggesting new positions at this time even though AHG looks poised to move higher. Aggressive traders may want to leave their stop under the rising 50-dma. Conservative traders might want to tighten their stop towards $33.00. Our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. We do not want to hold over the May 1st earnings report.

Picked on March 27 at $32.37
Change since picked: + 1.55
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 910 thousand

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Brookfield Asset Mgmt - BAM - cls: 57.19 chg: -0.36 stop: 53.89

We're seeing some mixed signals with BAM. The XBD index rose 0.5% today but BAM slipped 0.6% and produced what appears to be a bearish reversal with its bearish engulfing candlestick today. If you look at some of the intraday chart BAM has pulled back toward the bottom of its narrow, rising channel and should be poised to move higher from here. We are not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders may want to lock in a gain here. Our target is the $58.75-59.00 range.

Picked on April 08 at $54.76
Change since picked: + 2.43
Earnings Date 05/02/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 675 thousand

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Basic Energy - BAS - cls: 25.95 chg: +0.32 stop: 23.19

BAS turned in a bullish session. Traders bought the dip near $25 and its 10-dma this morning. Fueling the move was a big day for oil futures, which have risen past $65 a barrel. The stock now looks poised to breakout over $26. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $24.00 or maybe the 10-dma near $24.50. Our target is the $29.00-30.00 range. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on April 12 at $25.39
Change since picked: + 0.56
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 160 thousand

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Bristow Group - BRS - close: 37.82 chg: +0.03 stop: 36.45

BRS had trouble building on any strength in oil today. We are not suggesting new bullish positions in BRS at this time. Our target is the $38.40-38.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: + 1.94
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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C.H.Robinson Worldwide - CHRW - cls: 51.76 chg: -0.09 stop: 50.25

Rising oil prices means rising fuel costs and that weighed on the transports today. We don't have much time left so we're not suggesting new positions. CHRW is expected to report earnings after the market's close on Tuesday so we're planning to exit at the closing bell on April 24th.

Picked on April 16 at $50.25
Change since picked: + 1.51
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million

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Cabot Oil - COG - close: 36.00 change: +0.52 stop: 33.45

Entry point alert. Nigeria is a major exporter of crude oil. Concerns over the country's recent presidential elections pushed oil toward $66 a barrel today. Many oil stocks got a boost out of the news and COG rose 1.4%. Shares hit an intraday high of $36.16, which was enough to hit our suggested trigger to buy the stock at $36.15. Now that the play is open our target is the $39.75-40.00 range. We do not want to hold over the April 30th earnings report.

Picked on April 23 at $36.15
Change since picked: - 0.15
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Citrix Sys. - CTXS - cls: 34.61 chg: +0.37 stop: 33.45

Monday turned out to be pretty bullish for CTXS. Traders bought the dip near the bottom of its trading range and near the rising 10-dma this morning. The stock rose over 1% and broke out through the top of its trading range. Unfortunately, we do not have much time. CTXS is due to report after the bell on April 25th. We plan to exit at the closing bell on Wednesday to avoid holding over the announcement.

Picked on April 16 at $34.10
Change since picked: + 0.51
Earnings Date 04/25/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million

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GulMark Offshore - GMRK - cls: 48.50 chg: +1.25 stop: 45.45

We didn't see any specific news to account for GMRK's sudden spike higher on Monday morning. We're not complaining. Overall the sector was trending higher thanks to strength in crude. Volume came in above average on the gain, which tends to be bullish. Our short-term target is the $49.90-50.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher.

Picked on April 22 at $47.25
Change since picked: + 1.25
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 211 thousand

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James River Coal - JRCC - cls: 9.33 chg: +0.34 stop: 8.49

The M&A activity on Monday may have reminded investors that the coal-producers are ripe for more consolidation. JRCC spiked at the open and then rebounded again when the stock dipped toward $9.00 this afternoon. This looks like a new entry point for long positions if you aim for the 200-dma and put your stop closer to $8.75. Our target is $9.90-10.00 and we're not suggesting new plays.

Picked on April 08 at $ 8.15
Change since picked: + 1.18
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 647 thousand

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Microsoft - MSFT - cls: 28.78 chg: -0.24 stop: 28.24

We are almost out of time with MSFT. Our target is the $29.90-30.00 range. We plan to exit at the close on Thursday, April 26 to avoid earnings.

Picked on April 17 at $28.85
Change since picked: - 0.08
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 61.0 million

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NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - cls: 31.37 chg: -0.52 stop: 28.74

The earnings warning news from AMCC also weighed on shares of NVDA, another chip company. Shares of NVDA slipped 1.6% and look poised to test technical support near its 10-dma and 50-dma around $30.75. We'd use a dip or a bounce in the $30.25-30.75 region as a new entry point - just remember that we plan to exit ahead of earnings on April 30th. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 range.

Picked on April 15 at $30.58
Change since picked: + 0.79
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.9 million

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Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - cls: 31.57 chg: -0.09 stop: 30.39

Hmm... SBUX broke out over significant resistance on Friday. Yet today's rally couldn't make it past the $32.00 level. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past the $32.00 level before initiating positions. We're suggesting positions now in the $31.00-32.00 range. We'll put our stop under Thursday's low at 30.39. More aggressive traders might want to use a stop under $30.00. Our target is the $35.00-36.00 range but we need to exit ahead of the May 3rd earnings report.

Picked on April 22 at $31.66
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million

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Target - TGT - cls: 61.43 chg: -0.69 stop: 59.89

TGT actually held up pretty well, slipping 1.1%, after announcing that April same-store sales will come in weaker than expected. Normally with news like that we would expect a bigger drop. Watch for a bounce near $61.00 or its 50-dma as a new bullish entry point. We'll list a conservative target at $64.75 and an aggressive target at $67.50. The $65.00 level looks like short-term resistance.

Picked on April 22 at $62.12
Change since picked: - 0.69
Earnings Date 05/29/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million

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UNIT Crp. - UNT - cls: 55.59 chg: +0.92 stop: 51.75

The surge in crude oil today helped UNT post a 1.6% gain and the move came in on above average volume. Traders have been buying dips toward the rising 10-dma lately. More conservative traders may want to exit early to lock in a gain. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report. Our target is the $58-60 range.

Picked on April 08 at $51.95
Change since picked: + 3.64
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 407 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

None
 

Closed Long Plays

KLA-Tencor - KLAC - cls: 54.05 chg: -0.16 stop: 53.45

Semiconductors were under performing today after AMCC issued an earnings warning and the stock dropped 22%. Shares of KLAC held up reasonably well but we're going to call it quits and cut our losses. There is still a chance for a bounce if traders want to buy positions ahead of the earnings report this Thursday. We don't want to wait so we're suggesting an early exit now.

Picked on April 04 at $55.15
Change since picked: - 1.10
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.9 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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