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Long Play Updates

Bristow Group - BRS - close: 37.60 chg: -0.38 stop: 36.75 *new*

Oil service stocks had a rough day on Monday. Shares of BRS closed down 1% but that's after dipping toward $37.00 and bouncing back. We're not suggesting new positions. More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit now. We are adjusting the stop loss to $36.75. Our target is the $38.40-38.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and points to a $47 target. We do not want to hold over the early May earnings report.

Picked on March 11 at $35.88
Change since picked: + 1.72
Earnings Date 05/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 243 thousand

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Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 25.21 change: -0.02 stop: 24.49

We are urging caution with DELL. The stock displayed some strength this morning but gave it all back. The move today looks like a bearish failed rally pattern. Combine this with the weakness in the NASDAQ and DELL may have a rough time posting any gains this week. Watch for a bounce from the $25.00 level before considering new positions and more conservative traders may want to tighten their stops even further. Our target is the $27.25-27.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on April 29 at $25.23
Change since picked: - 0.02
Earnings Date 05/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.9 million

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ENSCO - ESV - close: 56.38 change: -0.46 stop: 53.44

ESV is another oil service stock that failed to build on last week's gains. Shares traded just north of $58.00 and then reversed course late this afternoon. We would wait and watch for a bounce near $56 or $55 before considering new long positions. The P&F chart points to a $76 target. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $59.85-60.00. Our aggressive target is the $62.50-65.00 range.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: - 0.46
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - cls: 32.89 chg: -0.18 stop: 30.58

We want to reiterate our weekend comments that more conservative traders will want to consider exiting early and locking in a gain right now. Today's trading in NVDA looks like a short-term top and the stock is poised to dip toward $32.00 or its 10-dma near 32.20. We want to exit ahead of the May 10th earnings report. Our target is the $34.50-35.00 range.

Picked on April 15 at $30.58
Change since picked: + 2.31
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.9 million

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Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - cls: 31.02 chg: -0.48 stop: 30.85

It's not looking good for the SBUX bulls. Shares continued to slide and broke down under its 50-dma. The selling (-1.5%) stalled near short-term support at $31.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early right here to cut their losses. If we don't get stopped out soon we plan to exit on Thursday at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings.

Picked on April 22 at $31.66
Change since picked: - 0.64
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.5 million

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World Acceptance Corp. - WRLD - cls: 42.93 chg: -1.65 stop: 40.99

Today's trading in WLRD was bearish. The stock's failed rally turned into a bearish reversal with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern and a close under the simple 100 and 200-dma. We are not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward $42.00. Our target is the $49.50-50.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $56 target.

Picked on April 29 at $44.58
Change since picked: - 1.65
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Lan Airlines - LFL - close: 73.15 chg: -0.46 stop: 76.05

There is no change from our weekend comments on LFL. The stock is slowly drifting lower and looks ready to breakdown. We are suggesting a trigger to short LFL at $71.49, which is under the simple 50-dma. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakdown under $70.00 before considering shorts. If LFL continues to rally and breaks out past significant resistance at the $76.00 level, then nimble traders may want to switch direction. If triggered at $71.49 then we suggest two targets. Our first target is the $66.00-65.00 range (near the rising 100-dma). Our second, more aggressive target, will be the $61.00-60.00 range. FYI: The most recent data puts short interest at 750K shares versus the 19.3 million-share float. LFL has about 63.7 million shares outstanding.

Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 189 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Archer Daniels Midland - ADM - cls: 38.70 chg: -0.31 stop: 38.55

We have run out of time with ADM. It was our plan to exit today at the close to avoid holding over tomorrow's earnings report. Even though we expect a positive report there are normally too many other variables that make it dangerous to hold a directional position over the earnings announcement. Wall Street expects ADM to report 61 cents a share.

Picked on April 22 at $38.55
Change since picked: + 0.15
Earnings Date 05/01/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.7 million

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Basic Energy - BAS - cls: 25.85 chg: -0.97 stop: 24.45

Abandon ship! We can't find any news to account for today's relative weakness but BAS produced a big bearish reversal with today's bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. The stock failed to rally past $27 and then sank 3.6% back toward the 10-dma. There is still a chance that BAS will bounce from short-term support at the 10-dma but we don't want to risk it. We're suggesting an early exit immediately.

Picked on April 12 at $25.39
Change since picked: + 0.46
Earnings Date 05/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 160 thousand

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Cabot Oil - COG - close: 36.42 change: -0.46 stop: 35.99

We have run out of time with COG as well. It was our plan to exit today at the close to avoid the company's earnings report tonight. COG beat the street's estimates by 5 cents but we're not seeing much after hours activity.

Picked on April 23 at $36.15
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 04/30/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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James River Coal - JRCC - cls: 9.06 chg: -0.30 stop: 8.95

We have been stopped out of JRCC at $8.95. The stock was consolidating sideways most of the session until finally breaking down this afternoon during the market's sell-off.

Picked on April 08 at $ 8.15
Change since picked: + 0.91
Earnings Date 05/08/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 647 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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