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Long Play Updates

Aracruz Celulose - ARA - close: 56.26 chg: -0.03 stop: 53.95

ARA struggled to see any follow through higher on Monday. However it's worth noting that traders bought the dips near $56.00 more than once today. We remain bullish and don't see any changes from our weekend comments. We're suggesting long positions with ARA above $56.00. The stock does have resistance in the $58.50-59.00 zone but ARA appears to be building an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern so our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on May 06 at $56.29
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 04/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand

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British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 63.89 chg: +0.27 stop: 61.45

Caution! Our new bullish play in BTI is now open but shares failed to hold the early breakout over resistance at $64.00 this morning. The trend remains bullish but given today's action it might pay off to watch for a dip in the $63.00-63.35 range. Traders could always just wait for a new relative high (over $64.07). Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.

Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 50.41 chg: -0.09 stop: 48.95

BUD was not nearly as volatile as the intraday figures might lead you to believe. Most quote services will list the high today as $51.00 but that was a bad tick. Furthermore most services will list the stock up 20 cents today at $50.41. Yet if you look at historical prices BUD closed at $50.50 on Friday so shares were down 9 cents on Monday. Overall we remain bullish and traders did buy the dip near $50.00 this morning. The stock doesn't move very fast so it could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 25.90 change: +0.24 stop: 24.69

DELL displayed some relative strength with a 0.9% gain. Volume came in pretty low so it's hard to put much confidence behind today's move. If you study the intraday chart it looks like DELL wants to breakout over $26.00. Our target is the $27.25-27.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on April 29 at $25.23
Change since picked: + 0.67
Earnings Date 05/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.9 million

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ENSCO - ESV - close: 58.17 change: -0.18 stop: 54.75

We think ESV and the oil sector held up pretty well in spite of another decline in crude oil. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. The stock hit new all-time highs on Friday and is nearing our conservative target in the $59.85-60.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $62.50-65.00 zone. We would wait for a dip near its 10-dma before considering new positions at this time. Please note that we're raising the stop loss to $54.75. The $56.00 level should now act as support.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: + 1.33
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 17.09 chg: +0.42 stop: 15.99

Our new play in GGC is now open. The stock broke out over the 50-dma and hit our trigger to buy it at $17.35. GGC closed up 3.3% and looked poised to move higher. Yet after hours we noticed GGC trading lower, near $17.20. The only news we noticed was a press release from the company about some new management positions. It didn't sound like anything that would impact the stock. If you are feeling nimble then watch for a dip in the $17.00-17.25 zone as a new entry point. This should be considered a more aggressive play since GGC does have plenty of overhead resistance to chew through. Watch for resistance near $18.00 and its 100-dma currently near $18.50. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range.

Picked on May 07 at $17.35
Change since picked: + 0.32
Earnings Date 04/04/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 31.50 chg: -0.38 stop: 29.89

We do not see any changes from our weekend play description. We're watching for a breakout over very significant resistance at the $32.00 level. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Apt Inv. & Mgmt - AIV - cls: 55.05 chg: -0.35 stop: 56.05

AIV under performed the markets again but we remain on the sidelines. More aggressive traders may want to use today's failed rally under the 10 and 200-dma as a new entry point. We're sticking to the plan and waiting for a breakdown under $54.00. We're suggesting a trigger to short it at $53.99. If triggered our target is the $50.25-50.00 range. If AIV traded under $54.00 it would produce a new Point & Figure chart sell signal.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/04/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 960 thousand

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Camden Property - CPT - cls: 68.20 chg: +0.22 stop: 70.05

There is no change from our weekend play description on CPT. We suspect the next move is down. Nimble traders may want to watch for a bounce and failed rally under $70 as a new entry point for shorts. We're suggesting a trigger to short it at $66.99. If triggered our target is the $60.50-60.00 range. We do expect some support near $65.00. The P&F chart looks very bearish with a $58 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 526 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - cls: 33.04 chg: -0.67 stop: 32.45

Target achieved. NVDA gapped open higher at $34.20 and traded to $34.58 before reversing lower. Our target was the $34.50-35.00 range. If you did not exit this morning be careful. Today's move looks like a bearish reversal commonly known as a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.

Picked on April 15 at $30.58
Change since picked: + 2.46
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.9 million

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World Acceptance Corp. - WRLD - cls: 42.60 chg: -1.22 stop: 41.99

We are throwing in the towel on WRLD. Shares of WRLD not only under performed the market and the financial sector today but the stock also produced a bearish reversal and breakdown under its 10 and 200-dma. We are suggesting an early exit immediately.

Picked on April 29 at $44.58
Change since picked: - 1.98
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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