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Long Play Updates

Aracruz Celulose - ARA - close: 56.65 chg: +0.91 stop: 53.95

Bullish reversal alert! Traders bought the dip in ARA near its 200-dma this morning and the stock rallied to a 1.6% gain. Today's move has produced a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally seen as a bullish reversal. We see it as a new entry point to go long the stock. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $55. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on May 06 at $56.29
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 04/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand

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British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 63.02 chg: -0.34 stop: 61.45

BTI's relative weakness on Wednesday is a concern. We would wait and watch for a bounce above $63.50 or better yet a bounce over $64.00 again before considering new positions. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.

Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Change since picked: - 1.03
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 49.96 chg: -0.44 stop: 48.95

Watch out! BUD produced both a failed rally at the 50-dma and a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. This sort of move is a bearish reversal and shares appear headed lower toward the 200-dma and the late April low (near $49.20). While we do expect a bounce near its rising 200-dma more conservative traders may still want to consider an early exit to cut their losses now. You could always jump back in on a bounce. The stock remains inside its wide, rising channel. The stock doesn't move very fast so it could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Change since picked: - 0.54
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 26.04 change: +0.02 stop: 24.69

The trend in DELL continues to look positive but the momentum is really struggling. Our target for DELL is the $27.25-27.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on April 29 at $25.23
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 05/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.9 million

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ENSCO - ESV - close: 57.78 change: +0.23 stop: 54.75

Tuesday's intraday rebound looked like an entry point but there was no follow through higher this morning. ESV dipped to $56.83, probably due to another decline in crude oil futures. The bounce back this afternoon is encouraging but our enthusiasm for the stock is cooling. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $59.85-62.50 range.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 17.71 chg: +0.42 stop: 15.99

Traders bought the dip in GGC near its 50-dma this morning. The stock ended up with a healthy 2.4% rally but still failed to breakout past $18.00. This should be considered a more aggressive play since GGC does have plenty of overhead resistance to chew through. Watch for resistance near $18.00 and its 100-dma currently near $18.50. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range.

Picked on May 07 at $17.35
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 04/04/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 31.68 chg: +0.26 stop: 29.89

There is still no change from our weekend play description. We're watching for a breakout over very significant resistance at the $32.00 level. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Apt Inv. & Mgmt - AIV - cls: 54.65 chg: +0.14 stop: 56.05

AIV produced another failed rally today, this time at its sliding 10-dma. The trading today looks like another entry point for aggressive traders to consider shorts. We're waiting for a breakdown under $54.00. We're suggesting a trigger to short it at $53.99. If triggered our target is the $50.25-50.00 range. If AIV traded under $54.00 it would produce a new Point & Figure chart sell signal.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/04/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 960 thousand

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Camden Property - CPT - cls: 69.12 chg: +0.90 stop: 70.05

REITs were generally higher today and CPT rallied toward the $70 level only to reverse course. This might turn out to be another lower high in a series of lower highs and thus a new entry point for shorts. However, we're sticking to our plan. We're suggesting a trigger to short it at $66.99. If triggered our target is the $60.50-60.00 range. We do expect some support near $65.00. The P&F chart looks very bearish with a $58 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 526 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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