Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 37.42 change: -1.02 stop: 35.89
Ouch! ACI gave back much of yesterday's gains. The move today looks like a bearish reversal making Wednesday's breakout more of a bull trap. There is still a chance that ACI will bounce in the $36.00-37.00 range so we're not willing to exit just yet. We would not consider new positions with ACI under $38.00 at this time. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $55.00 target. We see some resistance near $40.00 but our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.
Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Aracruz Celulose - ARA - close: 55.80 chg: -0.85 stop: 53.95
The market's decline threw a wet blanket on ARA's bullish reversal yesterday. There was no follow through higher although traders did buy the dip again near its 200-dma. We remain optimistic but we are now suggesting that readers wait for a move over $56.75 before initiating new positions. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $55. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.
Picked on May 06 at $56.29
British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 62.33 chg: -0.69 stop: 61.45
The consolidation in BTI is getting worse. Shares have gapped down three days in a row. Today's only saving grace was a bounce this afternoon after testing the 50-dma and the $62.00 level (low was $61.90). More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward today's low. Wait for a new rebound over $63.00 or $64.00 before considering new bullish positions. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.
Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 49.87 chg: -0.09 stop: 48.95
We don't see any changes from our Wednesday comments on BUD. Trading over the last couple of days has turned bearish. We're expecting a dip back toward the $49 lows and technical support at its rising 200-dma. More conservative traders may still want to consider an early exit to cut their losses now. You could always jump back in on a bounce. The stock remains inside its wide, rising channel. The stock doesn't move very fast so it could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.
Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 25.44 change: -0.60 stop: 24.95 *new*
Shares of DELL under performed the NASDAQ and the GHA hardware index. The stock dropped 2.3% and broke down under its rising 10-dma. This move is definitely bearish and more conservative traders may want to exit early. We're raising our stop loss to $24.95 since the $25.00 level should still act as support. Our target for DELL is the $27.25-27.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.
Picked on April 29 at $25.23
ENSCO - ESV - close: 56.14 change: -1.64 stop: 54.75
Oil service stock ESV sank sharply on Thursday with a 2.8% decline. The move today produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses now or raise their stop toward $56.00. We're going to stay with the stock for now but fully expect that ESV will dip toward the $55.50-55.00 range. Our target is the $59.85-62.50 range.
Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 18.66 chg: +0.95 stop: 17.35 *new*
An upgrade for GGC this morning sent shares soaring. The stock gapped open higher at $19.05 and traded to $19.47 before paring its gains. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range. The company reported first quarter earnings after the bell. The results appear to be better than expected but may not be comparable to analysts' estimates. The revenue number did come in under expectations. We didn't mean to hold over earnings tonight. GGC last reported earnings just a few weeks ago on April 4th. Normally we exit ahead of an earnings report. This time we'll get to see how investors react to the news. Please note that we're changing the stop loss to $17.35.
Picked on May 07 at $17.35
McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 30.88 chg: -0.80 stop: 29.89
It was a close call but we're still on the sidelines with MGRC. Someone or something ran the stock higher this morning and broke out past resistance at the $32.00 level. The intraday high was $32.21. That was probably enough to hit some buy orders before the stock promptly plunged and closed down 2.5%. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35 so we're safe for now. The move today definitely looks like a failed rally/bearish reversal pattern and MGRC looks poised to trade toward the $30 level soon. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Short Play Updates
Apt Inv. & Mgmt - AIV - cls: 53.34 chg: -1.31 stop: 56.05
Our bearish play in AIV is now open. The stock broke down from its recent trading range and hit new five-month lows on above average volume, which tends to be a bearish occurrence. Our trigger was at $53.99. Our target is the $50.25-50.00 range. As predicted the P&F chart has produced a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $48 target.
Picked on May 10 at $53.99
Camden Property - CPT - cls: 69.28 chg: +0.16 stop: 70.05
We are still waiting for a breakdown in CPT. We're suggesting a trigger to short it at $66.99. If triggered our target is the $60.50-60.00 range. We do expect some support near $65.00. The P&F chart looks very bearish with a $58 target.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays