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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 38.75 change: +1.33 stop: 35.89

The market's sharp rebound was seen very strongly in the coal stocks. ACI reversed Thursday's losses and closed at a new relative high. The rally back above $38.00 looks like another entry point to buy the stock. If you're feeling cautious you could always tighten your stop toward Thursday's low. We're keeping our stop at $35.89 for now. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $55.00 target. We see some resistance near $40.00 but our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.

Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Change since picked: + 0.31
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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Aracruz Celulose - ARA - close: 56.55 chg: +0.75 stop: 53.95

ARA has been consolidating above technical support at its 200-dma the last several days. Short-term technical indicators are improving. We see Friday's rebound as a new entry point to go long the stock. More conservative traders may want to wait for a new rally past $57.00 before opening positions or you could raise your stop toward $55.00. We see what looks like an inverse (or bullish version) head-and-shoulders pattern forming. If so it would project a $68 target. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on May 06 at $56.29
Change since picked: + 0.26
Earnings Date 04/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand

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British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 63.25 chg: +0.92 stop: 61.45

Market strength probably contributed a lot to BTI's 1.4% rebound on Friday. Traders bought the dip near $62 and its 50-dma to erase most of last week's losses. This looks like a new entry point to buy the stock. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop toward last week's lows and/or wait for another breakout over $64 before initiating positions. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.

Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Change since picked: - 0.80
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 50.14 chg: +0.27 stop: 48.95

BUD turned in a 0.5% bounce on Friday but most of the trading last week looked bearish so there's still a chance that BUD will see a dip toward $49.00. A bounce near the rising 200-dma would definitely be a tempting entry point. The stock remains inside its wide, rising channel. The stock doesn't move very fast so it could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Change since picked: - 0.36
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 25.81 change: +0.37 stop: 24.95

DELL managed to recoup most of Thursday's losses with a 1.4% rebound o Friday. Yet we're not thoroughly convinced this is a good spot to launch new positions so we're not suggesting new plays. However, DELL is bouncing from its trendline of support (see chart) so maybe this is a good spot to buy it after all. Our target for DELL is the $27.25-27.50 range. We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report.

Picked on April 29 at $25.23
Change since picked: + 0.58
Earnings Date 05/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.9 million

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ENSCO - ESV - close: 58.03 change: +1.89 stop: 54.75

Friday turned out to be a very strong day for ESV and oil service stocks in general. Shares of ESV rebounded to the tune of +3.3%, which completely erased Thursday's losses. The bounce from the $56 level looks like a new entry point to buy the stock especially if you aim past $60. We're actually going to raise our target from $59.85-62.50 to $61.50-62.50. More conservative traders may still want to lock in a gain at $59.85. The Point & Figure chart points to an $82 target.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: + 1.19
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 18.73 chg: +0.07 stop: 17.35

Broken resistance at $18.00 acted as new support on Friday as traders bought the dip at $18.03. The rebound was fueled by strong volume, which is bullish for the stock price. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops even further. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range.

Picked on May 07 at $17.35
Change since picked: + 1.38
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 31.78 chg: +0.90 stop: 29.89

MGRC is showing some strength again with a 2.9% rally on Friday. Yet the stock remains under resistance at the $32.00 level. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Apt Inv. & Mgmt - AIV - cls: 55.89 chg: +2.55 stop: 56.05

Warning! AIV produced a big bullish reversal (+4.7%) on Friday. We couldn't find anything to account for the big move but there were rumors floating around of more M&A activity to occur in the REIT sectors. AIV stalled just under resistance at $56.00 and its 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses now. We're not suggesting new positions. The bearish breakdown on Thursday now looks like a bear trap!

Picked on May 10 at $53.99
Change since picked: + 1.90
Earnings Date 05/04/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 960 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

Camden Property - CPT - cls: 72.05 chg: +2.77 stop: 70.05

We could not find anything concrete to account for the big spike higher in CPT on Friday. Yet there were rumors circulating that we will see more consolidation soon in the sector. It was our suggested plan to short the stock at $66.99. CPT never hit our trigger so we're dropping it unopened.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 526 thousand
 

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