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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 38.63 change: -0.12 stop: 35.89

ACI displayed some strength this morning. Unfortunately, the rally failed near round-number resistance at $40.00. Trading today actually looks bearish but investors were buying the dip near $38.00. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point to go long ACI. Overall the coal sector is getting some positive press. We're keeping our stop at $35.89 for now. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $55.00 target. We see some resistance near $40.00 but our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.

Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Change since picked: + 0.19
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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Aracruz Celulose - ARA - close: 55.74 chg: -0.81 stop: 53.95

We are starting to get motion sickness with the back and forth trading in ARA. Shares have been churning sideways for two weeks. We would now wait for a rise past $57.00 before considering bullish positions. 0. We see what looks like an inverse (or bullish version) head-and-shoulders pattern forming. If so it would project a $68 target. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on May 06 at $56.29
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 04/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand

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British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 63.08 chg: -0.17 stop: 61.45

BTI gapped down this morning but managed to recoup most of its losses by the closing bell. Rival tobacco firm, Reynolds American (RAI), out performed BTI with a 3% rally today. Yet we couldn't find any specific news to account for RAI's strength and big volume. BTI still has a bullish trend of higher lows - at least for now. We'd probably wait for a rally past $63.50 or $64.00 before opening new plays on BTI. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.

Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Change since picked: - 0.97
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 49.95 chg: -0.19 stop: 48.95

We do not see any significant changes from our weekend comments on BUD. Shares continue to trade inside their very wide, bullish channel. There's still a chance that BUD will see a dip toward $49.00. A bounce near the rising 200-dma would definitely be a tempting entry point. The stock remains inside its wide, rising channel. The stock doesn't move very fast so it could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Change since picked: - 0.55
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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ENSCO - ESV - close: 57.65 change: -0.38 stop: 54.75

Hmm... we remain bullish on oil and oil stocks but the lack of follow through in ESV after Friday's rebound is discouraging. Currently our target is the $61.50-62.50 range. More conservative traders may still want to lock in a gain at $59.85. The Point & Figure chart points to an $82 target.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: + 0.81
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 19.06 chg: +0.33 stop: 17.35

Investors are buying the dip/bounce from Friday in GGC. Shares added 1.7% on above average volume, which is normally a good sign. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range.

Picked on May 07 at $17.35
Change since picked: + 1.71
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 39.06 chg: +0.25 stop: 37.75

KSU continues to inch higher. The stock is nearing resistance in the $39.50 zone. We are suggesting that readers wait for a breakout over resistance at $39.50 first. Our suggested entry point to buy the stock is at $39.61. More conservative traders could even wait for a rally past potential round-number resistance at $40.00. If we are triggered at $39.61 then our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 716 thousand

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China Life Ins. - LFC - cls: 50.32 chg: +0.05 stop: 46.74

It was a quiet day for shares of LFC. The stock failed to see any profit taking or any follow through after Friday's rally. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments. The Chinese government has relaxed their requirements about domestic banks investing in overseas equity markets. This should be a bullish under current for LFC. We normally do not like to chase a big move like Friday's rally in LFC. However, this appears to be a unique event and LFC appears to have started a new leg higher. We are suggesting long positions now. It is up to the individual trader if they want to chase it here or wait for a potential dip back into the $49-48.50 zone. We're putting our stop under Thursday's low. Our target is the January 2007 highs in the $57.00-57.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal. The chart pattern points to a $70 target.

Picked on May 13 at $50.27
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 08/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 thousand

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McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 31.13 chg: -0.65 stop: 29.89

There is no change from our previous comments on MGRC. We're still waiting for a bullish breakout over resistance. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand

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Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 38.89 chg: +0.47 stop: 35.99

SPN continued to rally on Monday. Shares hit an intraday high of $39.58. The move today actually looks like a bearish failed rally. Watch for a dip back toward the $38.00 zone, which should now be short-term support. Our target is the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.

Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Change since picked: + 0.47
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Thermo Fisher - TMO - close: 53.38 change: -0.25 stop: 51.75

TMO struggled with any follow through on Friday's rebound. Traders may want to be patient and wait for a dip into the $52.75-52.25 range as a new entry point. We are aiming for the $59.00-60.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $76 target.

Picked on May 13 at $53.63
Change since picked: - 0.25
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

None
 

Closed Long Plays

Dell Inc. - DELL - cls: 25.27 change: -0.54 stop: 24.95

We are giving up on DELL. There was no follow through higher after Friday's rebound. Today's under performance in DELL (-2%) is casting a very negative shadow in the technical indicators. We're suggesting an early exit now to avoid or limit any losses.

Picked on April 29 at $25.23
Change since picked: + 0.04
Earnings Date 05/31/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21.9 million
 

Closed Short Plays

Apt Inv. & Mgmt - AIV - cls: 56.49 chg: +0.60 stop: 56.05

We would have been stopped out of AIV at $56.05. Shares continued to rally following Friday's big rebound. AIV broke out over technical resistance at its 200-dma. The bearish breakdown on Thursday now looks like a bear trap!

Picked on May 10 at $53.99
Change since picked: + 2.50
Earnings Date 05/04/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 960 thousand

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Sifco Industries - SIF - cls: 18.25 chg: +0.55 stop: 19.01

Our high-risk, speculative short in SIF didn't work out. The stock gapped open higher at $18.75 and rallied to $19.29 before paring its gains. We would have been stopped out at $19.01 this morning. Nimble traders may want to keep an eye on it. A drop back under $17.40 or $17.00 could be another aggressive entry point for shorts.

Picked on May 13 at $17.70
Change since picked: + 0.55
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 30 thousand
 

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