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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 38.22 change: -0.27 stop: 35.89

Coal stocks struggled to join the rest of the market's rally on Wednesday but traders did buy the dip midday. We see the intraday bounce in ACI as a new entry point to buy the stock. We're keeping our stop at $35.89 for now. The P&F chart is already bullish with a $55.00 target. We see some resistance near $40.00 but our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.

Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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Aracruz Celulose - ARA - close: 57.99 chg: +1.17 stop: 53.95

ARA finally broke out from its recent trading range. Shares rose 2% on improving volume. Now the stock is challenging its April highs. We see the breakout over $57 as a new entry point. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.

Picked on May 06 at $56.29
Change since picked: + 1.70
Earnings Date 04/09/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand

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British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 64.48 chg: +0.77 stop: 61.45

Wednesday turned out to be a bullish day for BTI. Shares rose 1.2% and broke out to a new high past resistance near $64.00. If you missed the previous entry points this is another entry point to go long BTI. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.

Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Change since picked: + 0.43
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 50.28 chg: -0.12 stop: 48.95

BUD under performed the market on Wednesday but traders did buy the dip near $50.00. We don't see any changes from our previous updates. The stock doesn't move very fast so we're not expecting a big need to update the play very often. The stock remains inside its wide, rising channel. It could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Change since picked: - 0.22
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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ENSCO - ESV - close: 58.45 change: +0.55 stop: 54.75

Oil stocks were showing strength again in spite of a dip in crude oil futures. ESV rose close to 1% and looks poised to breakout past the very short-term resistance at $58.50. Currently our target is the $61.50-62.50 range. More conservative traders may still want to lock in a gain at $59.85. The Point & Figure chart points to an $82 target.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: + 1.61
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 18.67 chg: +0.35 stop: 17.35

GGC is still churning sideways but above short-term support at the $18.00 level. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range.

Picked on May 07 at $17.35
Change since picked: + 1.35
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million

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Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 39.18 chg: +0.63 stop: 37.75

The railroad stocks were a big pocket of strength in the market today. Shares of KSU out performed both its peers and the broader market indices. We are very tempted to declare this an entry point right here and more aggressive traders may want to jump in now. We are sticking to our plan and waiting for a breakout over $39.50. Our suggested entry point to buy the stock is at $39.61. More conservative traders could even wait for a rally past potential round-number resistance at $40.00. If we are triggered at $39.61 then our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 716 thousand

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China Life Ins. - LFC - cls: 50.76 chg: +1.03 stop: 46.74

LFC bounced back to the top of its new and hopefully short-term trading range. Shares closed up 2% and look poise to move higher tomorrow. Readers can choose to buy it here or wait for a breakout over $51.00. Our target is the January 2007 highs in the $57.00-57.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal. The chart pattern points to a $70 target.

Picked on May 13 at $50.27
Change since picked: + 1.08
Earnings Date 08/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 thousand

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McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 31.41 chg: +0.91 stop: 29.89

The nearly 3% rally in MGRC is encouraging. However, we are sticking to our game plan and waiting for a breakout over $33.00. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand

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Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 38.99 chg: -0.01 stop: 35.99

We don't see any changes from our previous comments on SPN. The stock has traded sideways the last couple of days as it digests the bullish breakout from Friday and Monday. Another dip toward $38.50 might be an entry point but we'd prefer to buy a dip closer toward $38.00. Our target is the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.

Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Thermo Fisher - TMO - close: 53.90 change: +0.45 stop: 51.75

TMO is inching higher again. We would have expected more strength from the stock today after one analyst firm reiterated their "buy" rating. We are still suggesting new positions at current levels but depending on your trading style you may want to wait for another new relative high (over $54.00 or over the May 14th high of 54.34) or you might want to watch for a dip toward $53.00 as your entry point. We are aiming for the $59.00-60.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $76 target.

Picked on May 13 at $53.63
Change since picked: + 0.27
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Omega Healthcare - OHI - cls: 16.58 chg: +0.02 stop: 17.05

Danger! We have been triggered on an intraday dip to $16.22. OHI broke down under support at its 200-dma yesterday and dipped to $16.22 midday on Wednesday. Our suggested trigger to short it was at $16.24. The problem is the big bounce back this afternoon combined with the bullish market environment. Today's candlestick looks like a bullish reversal pattern. We are not suggesting new positions at this time although more aggressive traders may want to watch for a failed rally under $17.00 as a potential entry. We would instead prefer a new low under $16.20 before considering new shorts. Our target is the $14.50-14.00 range.

Picked on May 16 at $16.24
Change since picked: + 0.34
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 343 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

None
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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