Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 39.93 change: +1.00 stop: 35.89
Coal stocks continued to rise on Friday following Thursday's rebound. Shares of ACI turned in a healthy 2.5% rally and are now challenging round-number resistance at $40.00 again. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.
Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Aracruz Celulose - ARA - close: 60.42 chg: +1.23 stop: 55.85 *new*
The rally in ARA continued into Friday. The stock broke out over technical resistance on Thursday and ARA added another 2% on Friday. Volume on both Thursday and Friday was very strong, which tends to be a bullish factor. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that we are adjusting the stop loss to $55.85. Our target is the $62.00-62.50 range.
Picked on May 06 at $56.29
British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 65.03 chg: +0.67 stop: 61.85
BTI turned in a decent day with a 1% gain and a new high on Friday. The intraday low of $61.98 appears to be a back tick. We don't see BTI trading anywhere under $64.20 on Friday. We remain bullish on BTI with shares above $64 but if you're looking for a new entry point consider watching for a dip near $64.50 as an entry point. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.
Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 50.15 chg: +0.47 stop: 48.95
BUD managed a 0.9% bounce on Friday but the stock remains stuck in its two-week trading range. Readers can choose to buy the bounce or wait for more of a breakout above the $50.35-50.50 zone. Some of the short-term technicals are improving and BUD remains inside its wide, rising channel. It could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.
Picked on May 06 at $50.50
ENSCO - ESV - close: 59.99 change: +0.45 stop: 55.85
Oil stocks continued to show relative strength on Friday. ESV posted a 0.75% gain and closed right on the $60 mark thanks to option expiration Friday. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Currently our target is the $61.50-62.50 range. More conservative traders may still want to lock in a gain at $59.85. The Point & Figure chart points to an $82 target.
Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 18.99 chg: +0.38 stop: 17.95 *new*
GGC continued to rebound and posted a 2% gain on Friday. The stock looks poised to move higher next week but more conservative traders may want to do some profit taking right here. We are raising the stop loss to $17.95. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range.
Picked on May 07 at $17.35
Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 40.10 chg: +0.23 stop: 37.75
After breaking out to new highs on Thursday the railroad sector hit some profit taking. KSU was an exception thanks to one analyst firm starting coverage with an out perform rating. Traders bought the dip on Friday at $39.48. We see this as another entry point to buy KSU. It's worth noting that there has been renewed rumors of consolidation (M&A activity) in the railroad sector and that's probably fueling the strength right now - not to mention the big rise in crude oil. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.
Picked on May 17 at $39.61
China Life Ins. - LFC - cls: 49.49 chg: -0.54 stop: 47.74
LFC's breakdown from its trading range on Friday is bearish but the larger pattern continues to look bullish. Traders bought the dip near $49.00. We would still consider new positions now or watch for a rebound before jumping in. You may recall that LFC spiked higher on May 11th after it was announced that the Chinese government had relaxed their restrictions for domestic banks to invest in overseas stock markets. That news fueled a big rally in many of the ADRs traded in the U.S. market. Our target is the January 2007 highs in the $57.00-57.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal. The chart pattern points to a $70 target.
Picked on May 13 at $50.27
McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 30.87 chg: +0.61 stop: 29.89
MGRC is still bouncing around the $30-32 range. We are still waiting for a breakout over resistance near $32.00. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 39.99 chg: +0.36 stop: 35.99
Oil and oil services continued to rally on Friday. SPN rose 0.9% and eventually closed right at the $40.00 mark thanks to options expiration. We remain bullish on SPN but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.
Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Thermo Fisher - TMO - close: 53.63 change: +0.26 stop: 51.75
Daily momentum indicators on TMO are suggesting that the next move will be down but the short-term and longer-term indicators are still somewhat bullish. We are concerned by the lack of momentum over the past week and we would wait for a breakout over the $54.00 level or the old high near $54.35 before initiating new plays. Our target is the $59.00-60.00 range.
Picked on May 13 at $53.63
Short Play Updates
Omega Healthcare - OHI - cls: 16.15 chg: -0.10 stop: 17.05
OHI under performed the market on Friday with a 0.6% loss. The recent breakdown under support and its 200-dma is definitely bearish but shares are testing the $16.00 level. We would not be surprised to see an oversold bounce from here. We are still suggesting shorts but if you are willing to watch for a bounce a failed rally near $16.50 or its 200-dma near $16.65 would be an attractive entry point for shorts. Our target is the $14.50-14.00 range.
Picked on May 16 at $16.24
Closed Long Plays
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