Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 40.94 change: +1.01 stop: 37.45 *new*
The rally in coal stocks continues and shares of ACI rose 2.5% to a new relative high. The stock hit $41.85 before paring its gains this afternoon. We are raising our stop loss to $37.45. Our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.
Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 39.80 chg: +0.01 stop: 38.45
Be careful with BOBJ. The stock traded over $40.00 on an intraday basis and hit our trigger to buy it at $40.15. Unfortunately, shares couldn't hold the breakout and closed back under $40.00. This type of move is a failed rally pattern. At this point we'd be expecting a dip back toward the $39.00 level next. We would use a dip or a bounce near $39.00 as a new entry point. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.
Picked on May 21 at $40.15
British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 64.43 chg: -0.60 stop: 61.85
BTI hit some profit taking on Monday after closing at new highs on Friday. Broken resistance near $64.00 should now act as short-term support. A dip or bounce near $64 can be used as a new entry point. Actually today's pull back can be used as a new entry point but given the afternoon pull back it looks like BTI will slip toward $64. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.
Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 49.65 chg: -0.50 stop: 48.95
BUD under performed the broader markets on Monday with a 0.99% decline. The back and forth churning in shares of BUD is not a bullish sign. Shares look poised to dip toward $49.00 and rising technical support at its 200-dma. We might as well wait for a bounce from the 200-dma before considering new positions. It could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.
Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 66.39 chg: +0.74 stop: 63.39
It was a bullish session for COLM. The stock broke out over its three-month trendline of lower highs and over resistance at the $66.00 level. Our trigger to buy COLM was at $66.25. Now that the play is open our target is the $69.85-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher given the trend.
Picked on May 21 at $66.25
ENSCO - ESV - close: 60.20 change: +0.21 stop: 55.85
ESV is inching closer to our target in the $61.50-62.50 range. The intraday high today was $60.99. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may still want to lock in a gain here near $60. The Point & Figure chart points to an $82 target.
Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 18.24 chg: -0.75 stop: 17.95
Ouch! GGC lost 3.9% and on big volume after an analyst firm downgraded the stock to a "sell" this morning. Shares broke down under its 10-dma and 100-dma. We are very tempted to just exit here and more conservative traders may want to do so. However, we're going to keep the play going since GGC still has short-term support at the $18.00 level. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range.
Picked on May 07 at $17.35
GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 52.62 chg: +0.87 stop: 49.49
GMRK continues to rally. The stock posted a 1.6% gain. We don't see any big changes from our weekend comments. The P&F chart already points to a $73 target. We'll use a relatively tight stop loss to limit our risk. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $54.75-55.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $57.00-60.00 range.
Picked on May 20 at $51.75
Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 15.03 chg: -0.20 stop: 14.35
Our new play in GNA is not off to the strongest start. The stock appears to have produced a bearish failed rally under the May highs. We would expect a dip back toward the simple 10-dma currently near $14.80. Our stop is at $14.35. More aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop loss to give GNA more room to move. Our target is the $17.50-18.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $29 target.
Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 40.00 chg: -0.10 stop: 37.75
The railroad sector endured some more profit taking after hitting new highs last Thursday. Shares of KSU managed to out perform its peers but it still lost 0.2%. We would still buy the stock here or on a dip anywhere above $39.00. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.
Picked on May 17 at $39.61
China Life Ins. - LFC - cls: 49.64 chg: +0.15 stop: 47.74
LFC is not performing as expected. Shares remain stuck in a sideways trading range. Lack of upward momentum in the face of rising U.S. and Chinese markets is not a good sign for LFC. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops or just exit early to limit any losses. We would hesitate to open new bullish positions at this time. Our target is the January 2007 highs in the $57.00-57.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal. The chart pattern points to a $70 target.
Picked on May 13 at $50.27
McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 30.84 chg: -0.03 stop: 29.89
We were prepared to drop MGRC as a bullish candidate due to lack of movement today. However, we decided to keep it until after the upcoming investor conference on Wednesday where MGRC will speak with analysts. We are still waiting for a breakout over resistance near $32.00. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 41.29 chg: +1.30 stop: 37.85 *new*
It was another big day for SPN. The stock rose 3.2% to another new high on above average volume. Today's move is a bullish breakout over the $40.00 level. We are adjusting our stop loss to $37.85. We remain bullish on SPN but we're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target. More conservative traders may want to do a little profit taking here.
Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Short Play Updates
MarineMax - HZO - cls: 20.92 chg: +0.50 stop: 21.51
HZO has decided to not cooperate with our bearish designs - at least for now. Shares rose 2.4% but it remains under its bearish trend of lower highs. We are suggesting a trigger to short HZO at $19.95, which is under round-number support at $20.00. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze and our stops may not help in what your broker will call a "fast market". More conservative traders may want to pass on this one.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Omega Healthcare - OHI - cls: 16.39 chg: +0.24 stop: 17.05
This is a potential entry point for shorts in OHI. The stock did rise 1.48% but it also produced a bearish failed rally under technical resistance at the 200-dma. Our target is the $14.50-14.00 range.
Picked on May 16 at $16.24
Closed Long Plays
Aracruz Celulose - ARA - close: 63.03 chg: +2.61 stop: 55.85
Target achieved and surpassed. We did not see anything specific to account for ARA's big (+4.3%) rally. Volume on ARA's surge today was very strong! We did notice that the Brazilian markets were higher. Our target for ARA was the $62.00-62.50 range.
Picked on May 06 at $56.29
Thermo Fisher - TMO - close: 53.57 change: -0.06 stop: 51.75
We are giving up on TMO. The stock is stuck in a narrow sideways trading range. If we were forced to bet we believe TMO will move higher but right now we just don't like the lack of momentum in this bullish market environment.
Picked on May 13 at $53.63
Closed Short Plays