Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 40.19 change: -0.75 stop: 37.45
Caution! The decline in ACI (-1.8%) looks like normal profit taking. However, the candlestick pattern was a bearish engulfing pattern, which is typically viewed as a bearish reversal. A bounce from $40.00 would be encouraging but we would expect a dip towards the 10-dma. Our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.
Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 39.91 chg: +0.11 stop: 38.45
We don't see any changes from our Monday comments. Traders can choose to watch for a dip near $39.00 or a new relative high as a bullish entry point for BOBJ. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.
Picked on May 21 at $40.15
British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 64.85 chg: +0.42 stop: 61.85
BTI's 0.6% rally on Tuesday was fueled by stronger than average volume, which is usually bullish. However, BTI was slipping lower right into the closing bell. We would expect a dip tomorrow. Broken resistance near $64.00 should now act as short-term support. A dip or bounce near $64 can be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.
Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 51.07 chg: +1.42 stop: 48.95
Tuesday proved to be a big day for BUD. The stock soared 2.8% on strong volume and broke through its recent congestion area and technical resistance at the 50-dma. Driving the move today were positive earnings comments from BUD's management. If you're looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a dip near $50.50. Investors should note that it could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.
Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 67.08 chg: +0.69 stop: 63.39
COLM displayed another round of relative strength. The stock broke out and closed at new all-time highs. We remain bullish here but note COLM is now up five days in a row. It might be time for a dip. We are suggesting new bullish positions on a dip near $66.00. Our target is the $69.85-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher given the trend.
Picked on May 21 at $66.25
ENSCO - ESV - close: 58.97 change: -1.23 stop: 55.85
The June crude oil futures contract expired today and oil suffered some profit taking. Weakness in oil took the wind out of energy stocks. ESV lost 2% and looks poised to dip toward $58.00 soon. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The Point & Figure chart points to an $82 target. Our target is the $61.50-62.00 range.
Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 18.24 chg: -0.00 stop: 17.95
Danger! We are reissuing our cautious comments from yesterday. GGC closed unchanged on the session but the trading today was bearish with a failed rally pattern. The stock looks poised to breakdown under support at $18.00 soon. More conservative traders may want to exit now. Our target is the $19.90-20.00 range.
Picked on May 07 at $17.35
GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 52.22 chg: -0.40 stop: 49.49
Bearish reversal alert! GMRK traded to $54.65 before turning tail and closing in the red. This failed rally under resistance at $55.00 is definitely bearish. We would expect a dip back toward $50.00 soon. Wait and watch for a bounce before considering new positions. The P&F chart already points to a $73 target. We'll use a relatively tight stop loss to limit our risk. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $54.75-55.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $57.00-60.00 range.
Picked on May 20 at $51.75
Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 15.44 chg: +0.41 stop: 14.35
GNA continues to show relative strength even though most of the steel stocks were under performing today. Shares of GNA hit new relative highs and closed up 2.7% on strong volume. Our stop is at $14.35. More aggressive traders may want to use a wider stop loss to give GNA more room to move. Our target is the $17.50-18.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $29 target.
Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 40.38 chg: +0.38 stop: 37.75
KSU managed to out perform the major markets and its peers with a 0.9% gain on Tuesday. Volume came in above average, which is bullish. The trend is still positive but traders may want to think twice about new bullish positions given the market's weakness today. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.
Picked on May 17 at $39.61
China Life Ins. - LFC - cls: 48.82 chg: -0.82 stop: 47.74
LFC suffered some profit taking on Tuesday. Shares slipped 1.6% and they're nearing potential support near $48.00. We are adjusting our stop loss to $47.95. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but we will be watching for a bounce near $48.00. Our target is the January 2007 highs in the $57.00-57.50 range. FYI: The P&F chart has produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal. The chart pattern points to a $70 target.
Picked on May 13 at $50.27
McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 31.41 chg: +0.57 stop: 29.89
There is no change from our previous comments on MGRC. We are still waiting for a breakout over resistance near $32.00. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 40.40 chg: -0.89 stop: 37.99 *new*
Warning. SPN has produced a bearish reversal today. The June crude oil futures contracts expired today and the commodity saw some profit taking. Weakness in oil undermined the energy stocks and SPN slipped 2.1%. More importantly, SPN produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. More conservative traders may want to exit right here. We are raising our stop loss to $37.99. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target. More conservative traders may want to do a little profit taking here.
Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Short Play Updates
MarineMax - HZO - cls: 21.10 chg: +0.18 stop: 21.51
There is no change from our Monday comments on HZO. HZO has decided to not cooperate with our bearish designs - at least for now. We are suggesting a trigger to short HZO at $19.95, which is under round-number support at $20.00. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze and our stops may not help in what your broker will call a "fast market". More conservative traders may want to pass on this one.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Omega Healthcare - OHI - cls: 16.73 chg: +0.34 stop: 17.05
Many of the REIT stocks are all bouncing in unison. The group was somewhat oversold as of Friday and this week the sector is seeing an oversold bounce. Today's rally in OHI is worrisome with the close over technical resistance at the 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit early. Our target is the $14.50-14.00 range.
Picked on May 16 at $16.24
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays