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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 40.46 change: +0.27 stop: 37.45

ACI displayed relative strength with a 0.6% gain but the action today still looked bearish. More conservative traders may want to do some profit taking right here. A bounce from $40.00 would be encouraging but we would expect a dip towards the 10-dma. Our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.

Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Change since picked: + 2.02
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 40.12 chg: +0.21 stop: 38.75 *new*

BOBJ hit new five-month highs but the bulls couldn't push past the December 2006 peak. The stock gapped open higher at $40.67 and traded to $40.86 before paring its gains and close at its lows for the session. For the record the December 2006 high was $40.94. We don't like the market's tone today so we're not suggesting new bullish positions. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $38.75, which is under possible support at $39.00 and its 10-dma. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.

Picked on May 21 at $40.15
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 65.30 chg: +0.45 stop: 62.85 *new*

Tobacco stock BTI displayed relative strength on Wednesday with a gap open higher at $65.83. Shares quickly succumbed to profit taking but BTI still closed up 0.69%. We couldn't find any specific news to account for the gap higher this morning. Please note that we're adjusting the stop loss to $62.85. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range. BTI doesn't move very fast so this could take several weeks.

Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Change since picked: + 1.25
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 51.35 chg: +0.28 stop: 48.95

The rally in BUD continued into Wednesday but the upward momentum stalled by 10:00 a.m. this morning. Shares spent the rest of the session churning sideways. Given the market's bearish reversal today we would expect a dip in BUD toward the $50.50 zone. If you're looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a dip near $50.50. Investors should note that it could take several weeks before shares hit our target in the $53.85-54.00 range.

Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Change since picked: + 0.85
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 67.03 chg: -0.05 stop: 63.39

COLM held up relatively well only suffering a minor five-cent decline. We are still expecting a more significant dip soon. We are suggesting new bullish positions on a dip (preferably a bounce) near $66.00. Our target is the $69.85-70.00 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher given the trend.

Picked on May 21 at $66.25
Change since picked: + 0.78
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 235 thousand

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ENSCO - ESV - close: 59.94 change: +0.97 stop: 55.85

ESV turned in a strong session, rising 1.6% by the closing bell. Today's move potentially negates the bearish reversal we saw forming on Monday and Tuesday. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The Point & Figure chart points to an $82 target. Our target is the $61.50-62.00 range.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: + 3.10
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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GulfMark - GMRK - cls: 51.95 chg: -0.27 stop: 49.49

Oil and oil services bucked the market's weakness on Wednesday but GMRK failed to join its peers. The stock lost 0.5% and looks poised to dip toward the $50 level soon. Wait and watch for a bounce before considering new positions. The P&F chart already points to a $73 target. We have two targets. Our conservative target is the $54.75-55.00 range. Our aggressive target is the $57.00-60.00 range.

Picked on May 20 at $51.75
Change since picked: + 0.20
Earnings Date 07/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 241 thousand

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Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 15.82 chg: +0.38 stop: 14.49*new*

The rally (or maybe it's a short squeeze) continues in GNA. The stock hit a new intraday high at $16.13 and after paring its gains still closed up 2.4%. Volume continues to come in strong. We are adjusting our stop loss to $14.49. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to the $15 level. This remains an aggressive, speculative play. Our target is the $17.50-18.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $29 target.

Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Change since picked: + 0.59
Earnings Date 07/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 552 thousand

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Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 40.76 chg: +0.38 stop: 37.75

KSU continues to out perform. The stock rose another 0.9% and on above average volume, which is bullish. While the trend in KSU looks great we are growing more concerned about the strength of the market itself. Traders may want to think twice about new bullish positions given the market's weakness today. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.

Picked on May 17 at $39.61
Change since picked: + 1.15
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 716 thousand

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China Life Ins. - LFC - cls: 48.82 chg: -0.82 stop: 47.94 *new*

LFC continued consolidating lower and dipped toward what should be support near $48.00. The intraday low was $47.95. We did see a spike in volume as traders bought the dip near $48.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are going to raise our stop loss to $47.94, just under today's low. Aggressive traders may want to buy a bounce from here.

Picked on May 13 at $50.27
Change since picked: - 1.45
Earnings Date 08/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 thousand

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McGrath RentCorp - MGRC - cls: 30.93 chg: -0.48 stop: 29.89

There is no change from our previous comments on MGRC. We are still waiting for a breakout over resistance near $32.00. Our suggested trigger to buy the stock is at $32.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $32.50. If we are triggered our target is the $35.75-36.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50 target.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 05/03/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 94 thousand

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Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 40.22 chg: -0.18 stop: 37.99

SPN suffered some profit taking with a 0.4% loss. We would normally find it encouraging that SPN managed to hold the $40.00 level but we are more concerned about weakness in the broader market. More conservative traders may want to exit right here. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.

Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Change since picked: + 1.80
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
 

Short Play Updates

MarineMax - HZO - cls: 20.73 chg: -0.37 stop: 21.51

Trading in HZO was bearish today with what appears to be a failed rally under its 50-dma. Aggressive traders may want to short it here. We are suggesting a trigger to short HZO at $19.95, which is under round-number support at $20.00. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze and our stops may not help in what your broker will call a "fast market". More conservative traders may want to pass on this one.

Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 354 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Georgia Gulf - GGC - close: 17.92 chg: -0.32 stop: 17.95

We have been stopped out of GGC at $17.95. We warned readers yesterday that GGC looked poised to breakdown under support at the $18.00 level. Contributing to GGC's weakness was an analyst downgrade to an "under perform".

Picked on May 07 at $17.35
Change since picked: + 0.57
Earnings Date 05/10/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million
 

Closed Short Plays

Omega Healthcare - OHI - cls: 16.88 chg: +0.15 stop: 17.05

OHI spiked higher this morning and we would have been stopped out at $17.05. The move today almost looks like a bearish failed rally pattern under the 50-dma but if you look at the intraday chart traders appeared to be buying the afternoon pull back. We did not see anything to account for the sudden surge of strength this morning.

Picked on May 16 at $16.24
Change since picked: + 0.64
Earnings Date 04/26/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 343 thousand
 

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