Long Play Updates
Arch Coal - ACI - close: 41.48 change: +0.92 stop: 38.95 *new*
Some of the coal stocks were out performing the market on Friday. Shares of ACI rose 2.2% and closed near their highs for the year albeit on very low, pre-holiday volume. The stock looks like it wants to breakout over the top of its trading range near $42.00. That may not happen if the major indices turn lower next week. More conservative traders may want to exit now or just take some partial profits here. If you're feeling cautious but don't want to exit yet then consider raising your stop loss toward the $40.00 level. We are adjusting our stop to $38.95. Our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.
Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 40.67 chg: +1.38 stop: 38.95 *new*
Software stocks led the market rebound on Friday. The GSO index was the best performing sector index with a 1.5% gain. BOBJ out performed its peers with a 3.5% rally after the stock was upgraded to a "buy" before the opening bell. Shares are right back near resistance at the $41 level. We are inching up our stop loss to $38.95. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target.
Picked on May 21 at $40.15
British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 66.20 chg: +0.35 stop: 63.49 *new*
Another day, another gain for BTI. It's been a very bullish two weeks for tobacco stock BTI. Shares are breaking out to new all-time highs. We remain bullish but we're not suggesting new positions. We are adjusting our stop loss to $63.49. More conservative traders might want to place their stops closer to the $64.00 level, which should be support. Our target is the $67.50-70.00 range.
Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 50.98 chg: -0.30 stop: 48.95
Nearly everyone is familiar with summer being the peak "driving" season but it's also the peak "drinking" season for beer companies. This Memorial day weekend kicks off the summer drinking season so this seems like a good time to be owning BUD. Unfortunately, the stock was under performing on Friday. Watch for a bounce from here near $51 or a dip near $50.50 as a new entry point. The long-term trend has BUD trading in a wide, rising (bullish) channel. Our target is the $53.85-54.00 range and it could take a few weeks to get there.
Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 66.55 chg: -0.48 stop: 63.39
Traders bought the pull back in COLM on Friday. The stock rose 0.48% but volume was very light ahead of the holiday weekend. Overall the pattern remains very bullish and COLM is trading near its highs. The stock broke out over significant resistance several days ago and the P&F chart has a very bullish triangle breakout pattern with a suggested $89.00 target. Our target is the $69.85-70.00 range. Readers can choose to go long the stock now or wait for a dip in the $65.00-66.00 zone.
Picked on May 21 at $66.25
ENSCO - ESV - close: 59.43 change: +1.39 stop: 55.85
It has been a volatile week for ESV. Up and down oil prices and some analyst comments have pushed ESV back and forth this week. Friday's 2.3% bounce is encouraging but we would hesitate to consider new positions here. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss to breakeven. Our target is the $61.50-62.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is more optimistic with an $82 target.
Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 15.60 chg: +0.31 stop: 14.49
GNA rebounded on Friday following Thursday's sell-off. The stock gapped open Friday morning and spent the rest of the session trading sideways to close up 2%. Friday's gain, while encouraging, formed an "inside day" and it's hard to draw any conclusions until we see what direction the stock breaks next. Fortunately, some news out on Friday has given us the answer. After the closing bell GNA announced it had come to a five-year agreement with the United Steelworkers in Canada. This news sent GNA up another 2.6% to $16.00 in after hours trading. As long as traders don't forget this news over the long-weekend we would expect another rally on Tuesday. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $14.75 or toward $15.00. This remains an aggressive, speculative play. Our target is the $17.50-18.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $29 target.
Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 40.20 chg: +0.23 stop: 37.75
Both KSU and the railroad index traded higher on Friday but both closed off their best levels of the session. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point but we suspect KSU will dip towards the rising 10-dma near $39.80 or deeper toward the $39.50 level before rebounding again. Wait for that dip as a new entry point. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.
Picked on May 17 at $39.61
Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 39.21 chg: +0.69 stop: 37.99
Crude oil futures bounced on Friday and that lent strength to the energy sector. Shares of SPN gapped open higher at $38.97 and by the closing bell were up 1.79%. Volume was light thanks to the holiday weekend. The bounce back above $39.00 looks like a new entry point but technically Friday's move is an "inside day" and Tuesday's move should indicate SPN's next direction. Our target is the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.
Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Short Play Updates
MarineMax - HZO - cls: 20.02 chg: -0.20 stop: 21.51
HZO's latest bounce has failed at its 50-dma. The move looks like a new entry point for shorts. Yet we're suggesting readers wait for a breakdown under short-term support at the $20.00 level first. Our trigger to short the stock is at $19.95. If triggered our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze and our stops may not help in what your broker will call a "fast market". More conservative traders may want to pass on this one.
Picked on May xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
U S T Inc. - UST - close: 54.73 chg: +0.37 stop: 56.21
UST managed to muster some strength and join the rest of the market in Friday's bounce. Shares spent most of the session trading sideways but closed up 0.6%. We remain bearish here. Watch for any further bounce to fail under the $56.00 level, which could be used as a new entry point for shorts. If UST doesn't bounce then a new relative low can be used as a new entry. A breakdown under $54.00 would produce a new Point & Figure chart sell signal. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $52.60-52.50. Our more aggressive target is the $50.50-50.00 range.
Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays