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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 41.20 change: -0.28 stop: 38.95

ACI tried to breakout over the $42.00 level this morning but failed. The stock slid lower throughout the rest of the session with a minor bounce in the last thirty minutes. The overall trend remains bullish but today's action might suggest another pull back toward the $40.00 level and its 10-dma soon. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops or do some profit taking here. Our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.

Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Change since picked: + 2.76
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 41.05 chg: +0.38 stop: 38.95

BOBJ was already a rumored takeover target so news today regarding other potential tech-related takeover deals renewed enthusiasm in BOBJ. The stock rose 0.9% and closed at new one-year highs. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target.

Picked on May 21 at $40.15
Change since picked: + 0.90
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 52.23 chg: +1.25 stop: 48.95

Investors bought the dip at $50.82 this morning and BUD was off to the races. The stock soared 2.45% on big volume today. The breakout over $52.00 is definitely bullish. The strong volume on the recent rallies is also bullish. The long-term trend has BUD trading in a wide, rising (bullish) channel. Our target is the $53.85-54.00 range and it could take a few weeks to get there.

Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Change since picked: + 1.73
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 67.51 chg: +0.64 stop: 63.39

COLM was back to its winning ways on Tuesday. The stock tried to breakout over the $68.00 level and ended up 0.95% by the closing bell. The P&F chart has a very bullish triangle breakout pattern with a suggested $89.00 target. Our target is the $69.85-70.00 range.

Picked on May 21 at $66.25
Change since picked: + 0.94
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 235 thousand

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EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 16.48 change: +0.02 stop: 15.45

EMC couldn't decide which direction it wanted to go today. Shares closed essentially unchanged. We'd prefer to buy a dip near $16.00, which should be support, but we are suggesting new long positions now. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range. The P&F chart has a $24.00 target.

Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Change since picked: + 0.02
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 26.6 million

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ENSCO - ESV - close: 59.10 change: -0.33 stop: 55.85

Oil stocks were struggling on Tuesday. News that workers in oil-exporter Nigeria had called off a strike and news that the U.S. was seeing some of its refineries coming back online sent crude oil futures down 3%. Shares of ESV slipped 0.5%. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss to breakeven. Our target is the $61.50-62.00 range. The Point & Figure chart is more optimistic with an $82 target.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: + 2.26
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million

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Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 15.73 chg: +0.13 stop: 14.49

GNA seems to be fighting for every inch but it's still climbing higher over the bodies of dead bears. The stock spiked higher this morning to $16.35 and then slipped back to close up 0.8%. The spike was due to news last Friday about a deal with the United Steelworkers in Canada. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $14.75 or toward $15.00. This remains an aggressive, speculative play. Our target is the $17.50-18.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $29 target.

Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Change since picked: + 0.50
Earnings Date 07/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 552 thousand

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Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 40.20 chg: +0.00 stop: 37.75

KSU closed unchanged on Tuesday as it continues to churn sideways above the $40.00 level. We are seeing a bearish divergence between price and the daily chart's MACD. You can also see the divergence in the RSI indicator. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.

Picked on May 17 at $39.61
Change since picked: + 0.59
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 716 thousand

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Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 39.27 chg: +0.06 stop: 37.99

SPN managed to buck the trend in oil stocks on Tuesday. The 3.1% drop in crude oil undermined most of the sector but SPN produced a 0.15% gain as traders bought the dip near $39.00. SPN is still struggling with the $40.00 level so more conservative traders may want to avoid new positions here. Our target is the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.

Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Change since picked: + 0.85
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 28.97 chg: -0.29 stop: 27.95

WIRE's lack of follow through on last Friday's bounce is not a good sign. The stock did trade off its lows for the session but it might turn out to be a better play if readers wait for a new relative high over $29.70 or $30.00 before initiating positions. The Point & Figure chart suggests a $46 price target. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range.

Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Change since picked: - 0.29
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

MarineMax - HZO - cls: 20.00 chg: -0.02 stop: 21.51

Our bearish play in HZO is now open. The stock broke down under round-number support at the $20.00 level and hit $19.88 intraday. Our suggested trigger to short it was at $19.95. Now that the play is open our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze and our stops may not help in what your broker will call a "fast market". More conservative traders may want to pass on this one.

Picked on May 29 at $19.95
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 354 thousand

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Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 23.95 chg: -0.45 stop: 25.76

SPLS continued to under perform on Tuesday. The stock lost 1.8% and broke down under the $24.00 level on big volume, which is another bearish sign. We would still consider new positions here. Our target is the $22.00 level. We will use a relatively wide (aggressive) stop loss until we see some further confirmation lower.

Picked on May 27 at $24.40
Change since picked: - 0.45
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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U S T Inc. - UST - close: 54.31 chg: -0.42 stop: 56.21

UST has offered us another entry point for shorts. The stock produced another failed rally under the $55.00 level today. A breakdown under $54.00 would produce a new Point & Figure chart sell signal. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $52.60-52.50. Our more aggressive target is the $50.50-50.00 range.

Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Change since picked: - 0.65
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 965 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

British Amer. Tob. - BTI - cls: 67.41 chg: +1.21 stop: 63.49

Target achieved. BTI gapped open higher at $67.46 and rallied to $68.22 before paring its gains. We checked the news on BTI, MO and RAI and couldn't find anything to explain the gap higher in BTI today. If you did not exit at our target consider tightening your stop toward $65.00. Shares look short-term overbought and due for a pull back.

Picked on May 07 at $64.05
Change since picked: + 3.36
Earnings Date 04/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 105 thousand

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Western Refining - WNR - cls: 46.35 chg: +3.63 stop: 39.75

Target achieved. Tuesday turned out to be a big day for WNR. Just after one o'clock Eastern time shares spiked higher on huge volume to close up 8.49%. The move was fueled by news that the courts had ruled in favor of WNR and their proposed merger with Giant Industries (GI). The courts also removed the temporary injunction placed by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC). Later in the day the FTC announced that they will appeal the decision. Our target was the $47.00-50.00 range. Today's high was $47.55. If this deal goes through WNR could see even more upside so more aggressive or longer-term investors may want to hold WNR. Bear in mind that we would expect some profit taking after today's big move.

Picked on May 27 at $42.72
Change since picked: + 3.63
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 801 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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