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Long Play Updates

Arch Coal - ACI - close: 41.60 change: +0.47 stop: 38.95

ACI turned in a bullish session with traders buying the dip near its rising 10-dma. Volume continues to come in low but the stock added 1.1%. More conservative traders may want to exit now as ACI nears resistance at the $42.00 level. Our target is the $42.50-45.00 range.

Picked on May 09 at $38.44
Change since picked: + 3.16
Earnings Date 07/23/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million

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Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 40.79 chg: -0.25 stop: 38.95

We were surprised to see BOBJ's relative weakness on Wednesday. The market is experiencing a true merger mania right now and BOBJ is rumored to be a takeover target. The stock dipped this morning but traders did buy the dip more than once near $40.30. The trend is still bullish. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target.

Picked on May 21 at $40.15
Change since picked: + 0.65
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Anheuser Busch - BUD - cls: 52.68 chg: +0.45 stop: 49.75 *new*

The high-volume rally in BUD continues for another day. Shares added almost 0.9% on close to double its normal volume. The stock is quickly nearing potential resistance at the April 2007 highs (around $53.00). More conservative traders may want to exit early as BUD approaches $53.00. Our target is the $53.85-54.00 range. Please note that we're adjusting the stop to $49.75.

Picked on May 06 at $50.50
Change since picked: + 2.18
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million

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Columbia Sportswear - COLM - cls: 69.07 chg: +1.56 stop: 64.95*new*

It was a big day for COLM. The stock broke out to a new all-time high and pushed through short-term resistance at $68.00. The relative strength is very encouraging and we wouldn't be surprised to see COLM hit our $69.85-70.00 target tomorrow. We are raising the stop loss to $64.95. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop closer to the $66 level.

Picked on May 21 at $66.25
Change since picked: + 2.82
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 235 thousand

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EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 17.00 change: +0.52 stop: 15.85 *new*

EMC is soaring. The stock rose 3.15% to a new multi-year high. Volume behind the move was close to double the daily average, which is very bullish. Fueling the move were some positive analyst comments and a new higher $20 price target. We are adjusting our stop loss to $15.85. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range. The P&F chart has a $24.00 target.

Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Change since picked: + 0.54
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 26.6 million

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Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 15.59 chg: -0.14 stop: 14.75 *new*

Uh-oh! GNA under performed the market with a 0.88% decline. Furthermore volume came in very strong on the decline, which is normally bearish. However, if you're feeling optimistic we do note that traders bought the initial dip at the rising 10-dma. We're going to inch up our stop loss to $14.75. More conservative traders may want to place their stop closer to the $15.00 mark. This remains an aggressive, speculative play. Our target is the $17.50-18.00 range. The P&F chart points to a $29 target.

Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 07/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 552 thousand

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Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 40.33 chg: +0.13 stop: 37.75

Traders bought the dip near broken resistance and what should be support in the $39.50 zone this morning. Today's bounce looks like a new entry point to buy the stock. The Dow Jones Transportation average looks poised to breakout over resistance, which could also give the railroads another lift. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.

Picked on May 17 at $39.61
Change since picked: + 0.72
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 716 thousand

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Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 40.10 chg: +0.83 stop: 37.99

The rebound in crude oil futures fueled a big move in oil stocks. SPN rose 2.1% and broke out over the $40.00 mark again. This looks like another entry point to buy SPN but you may want to raise your target. We're only aiming for the $42.50 level. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.

Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Change since picked: + 1.68
Earnings Date 08/01/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 28.98 chg: +0.01 stop: 27.95

WIRE is still under performing the market. The lack of participation in today's rally is bearish. We are now suggesting that readers wait for a new relative high over $29.70 or over $30.00 before initiating positions. The Point & Figure chart suggests a $46 price target. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range.

Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Change since picked: - 0.28
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand

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Short Play Updates

MarineMax - HZO - cls: 20.77 chg: +0.77 stop: 21.51

We might be in trouble with HZO. The stock hit our trigger to short it on Tuesday with the dip under support at $20.00. Today's widespread market rally fueled a big bounce in HZO (+3.8%). The stock continues to see a bearish trend of lower highs but it wouldn't take much to push HZO to our stop loss at $21.51. More conservative traders may want to cut their losses now in this bullish market environment. We're not suggesting new positions with HZO above $19.95. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze and our stops may not help in what your broker will call a "fast market". More conservative traders may want to pass on this one.

Picked on May 29 at $19.95
Change since picked: + 0.82
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 354 thousand

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Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 24.72 chg: +0.75 stop: 25.76

Today's oversold bounce in SPLS could be shorts panicking to cover in this overheated market. The rebound in SPLS today looks like a short-term bullish reversal and there is no telling how high it will bounce. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $25.00. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $22.00 level.

Picked on May 27 at $24.40
Change since picked: + 0.32
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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U S T Inc. - UST - close: 53.83 chg: -0.48 stop: 55.65 *new*

UST continues to under perform. The stock sank another 0.88% and did so on big volume today. Shares closed at a new relative low. Today's breakdown under $54.00 has produced a new Point & Figure chart triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $47 target. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $52.60-52.50. Our more aggressive target is the $50.50-50.00 range. Please note that we're adjusting our stop loss to $55.65.

Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Change since picked: - 1.13
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 965 thousand

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Closed Long Plays

ENSCO - ESV - close: 61.52 change: +2.42 stop: 55.85

Target achieved. Oil stocks rebounded thanks to a bounce in crude oil today. Shares of ESV climbed just over 4% and broke out to a new relative high. Our target was the $61.50-62.50 range. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. The Point & Figure chart is optimistic with an $82 target.

Picked on April 29 at $56.84
Change since picked: + 4.68
Earnings Date 04/24/07 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None Today.

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