Long Play Updates
Aracruz Celulose - ARA - cls: 60.00 chg: -2.00 stop: 57.99
The Brazilian markets suffered a 180-point loss on Monday but that's only a 0.3% decline and probably just normal profit taking with the local markets near record highs. Meanwhile the NYSE-traded ADR shares of ARA suffered a 3.2% sell-off. We could not find any specific news or catalyst to explain the weakness in ARA. The pull back to $60.00 looks like a new entry point but given the sharp dip on Monday we'd wait for signs of a bounce before jumping in. A rebound over $60.50 might work as an alternative entry point. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit near $66.00.
Picked on June 03 at $62.00
Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 40.45 chg: +0.35 stop: 38.95
Traders are buying the dip in BOBJ near the $40 level. The good news is that Monday did not see any follow through on Friday's bearish reversal candlestick. This looks like a new entry point to go long the stock but if you're launching new positions consider adjusting your stop toward $40. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target. FYI: BOBJ remains a takeover target.
Picked on May 21 at $40.15
CIT Group - CIT - close: 61.16 change: +0.05 stop: 58.49
We do not see any changes from our weekend comments for CIT. Traders bought the dip at $60.45 this morning. More aggressive traders may want to go long the stock right here. We want to wait for a rally past the February 2007 high so we're suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $61.75. If triggered we are aiming for the $67.00-70.00 range. Currently the Point & Figure chart forecasts an $84 target. More conservative traders may want to exit near $65.00, which could be round-number resistance.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 17.05 change: +0.22 stop: 15.85
EMC managed to tag a new relative high today. Shares closed up 1.3% after announcing it had bought Verid, a privately held IT security firm. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but a dip (or bounce) near the rising 10-dma could be an entry point. The P&F chart has seen its bullish price target rise from $24.00 to $25.50 over the last week. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range.
Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Fomento Economico - FMX - cls: 40.34 chg: -0.10 stop: 37.99
There is no change from our weekend comments on FMX. The stock continues to trade sideways above the $40.00 level. We are suggesting long positions now with FMX above $40.00 but a dip near $39.00 could also be used as a new entry point. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.
Picked on June 03 at $40.44
Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 15.95 chg: -0.06 stop: 14.95
There is nothing new to report on for GNA. Metal and steel stocks tended to under perform the markets on Monday. Shares of GNA continue to look overbought and due for a correction but until the trend changes the bulls are in control. Traders might want to tighten their stops toward the rising 10-dma near $15.60. Our target is the $17.50-18.00 range. This remains a higher-risk, speculative play. Some of the technical indicators are suggesting the next move "should" be down.
Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 42.40 chg: -0.10 stop: 39.61 *new*
KSU experienced some mild profit taking after Friday's big rally. Shares spent most of Monday trading sideways in a very small range. A dip back to the $41.00 area would not be unusual here. We're adjusting our stop loss to breakeven at $39.61. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.
Picked on May 17 at $39.61
Pinnacle Enter. - PNK - cls: 31.09 chg: +0.15 stop: 29.95
Breakout alert! This looks like a new bullish entry point in PNK. The stock has broken out past its 100-dma and past the $31.00 level. The stock also closed at its high for the session, which is usually bullish for the following day. We're going to stick to our plan and use a trigger to open positions at $31.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $31.50. If triggered our target is the $34.50-35.00 range. Currently the P&F chart for PNK is still bearish and points to a $19 target.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Raytheon - RTN - close: 56.60 chg: +0.43 stop: 53.95
Shares of RTN were marching higher after the company announced it had won another U.S. military contract. This time RTN won the Navy Multiband Terminal contract with $1 billion over the life of the contract. Volume came in just above average on the session and the new high. We don't see any changes from our weekend comments and would still consider new positions here. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range.
Picked on June 03 at $56.17
St. Mary Land - SM - cls: 38.47 chg: +0.38 stop: 35.99
SM posted its fourth gain in a row and broke out to new five-month highs with today's rally. A 1.7% rally in crude oil supported a sector-wide rally in the energy stocks. SM hit an intraday high of $38.60 and our suggested trigger to buy the stock was at $38.51. Now that the play is open our target is the $43.50-45.00 range. We would expect some resistance near $40.00 and again near $40.65 but overall the breaking from its trading range and above its 200-dma is very bullish.
Picked on June 04 at $38.51
Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 40.33 chg: +0.43 stop: 37.99
Strength in crude and the oil sector helped pull SPN back above the $40.00 level. The general trend is still positive but we remain wary. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. Our target is the $42.50 mark. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.
Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Trico Marine - TRMA - cls: 42.43 chg: -0.35 stop: 40.45
We are a little surprised by the relative weakness in TRMA today. Oil stocks, especially oil service stocks, were trading higher today. On a technical basis the dip back toward $42.00 in TRMA looks like a new entry point to buy it. Our target is the $46.50-47.50 range. The P&F chart points to a $58 target.
Picked on June 03 at $42.78
Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 29.42 chg: -0.40 stop: 27.95
WIRE under performed the markets on Monday. Volume was low so it's tough to put a lot of emphasis behind today's move. However, we do suspect that WIRE is poised to dip toward the $29.00 level soon. Wait and watch for a bounce near $29.00 as a new entry point. An alternative entry would be to look for a new relative high over $30.45. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $28.50. The Point & Figure chart suggests a $46 price target. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range.
Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Short Play Updates
Archer Daniels - ADM - cls: 34.48 chg: -0.11 stop: 36.11
ADM continued to under perform the markets on Monday. Yet the bounce from the $34.00 level is something of a warning for the bears. Today's move has produced a "hammer" style candlestick, which is usually seen as a bullish reversal. We wouldn't start to worry until we saw ADM trade over $35.00, which should be overhead resistance. A failed rally near $35.00 would actually be an attractive entry point for shorts. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range but we do expect some support and a bounce near $32.75-33.00.
Picked on June 03 at $34.59
MarineMax - HZO - cls: 21.19 chg: +0.14 stop: 21.51
We have to wave the warning flag again. HZO is still creeping higher and today's gain is technically a bullish breakout over its 50-dma. Yet shares appear to be struggling to rise past the May 22nd high. More conservative traders may just want to exit early right here to cut their losses. We're going to stick it out and see what happens but we're not suggesting new positions. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze.
Picked on May 29 at $19.95
Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 25.15 chg: -0.22 stop: 25.76
SPLS under performed the market with a 0.8% decline but we're not completely convinced that readers should be shorting what almost looks like a failed rally. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but if SPLS turns south a drop under $24.50 would look like a new entry point.
Picked on May 27 at $24.40
U S T Inc. - UST - close: 53.60 chg: -0.71 stop: 55.65
UST reversed course and lost 1.3% and on above average volume. The big volume behind the decline is positive unfortunately if you look at the intraday chart it looks like most of the volume showed up on the late afternoon bounce, which is worrisome. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to the $55.00 level. The P&F chart has a bearish signal with a $47 target. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $52.60-52.50. Our more aggressive target is the $50.50-50.00 range. FYI: More aggressive traders might want to give UST more room to maneuver and leave their stop above $56 or its 200-dma.
Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays