Long Play Updates
Aracruz Celulose - ARA - cls: 60.20 chg: +0.20 stop: 57.99
The NYSE-traded ARA shares of ARA continued to see a lot of volume. Shares closed about where they opened producing a doji style of candlestick, which normally means indecision. We see the bounce from its lows as optimistic but readers might want to wait for a rally past $61.00 before considering new positions. Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range. More conservative traders may want to exit near $66.00.
Picked on June 03 at $62.00
Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 40.31 chg: -0.14 stop: 39.45 *new*
Software stocks trended lower on Tuesday but BOBJ managed to out perform most of its peers. The stock churned sideways in a relatively tight range above the $40.00 level. We are going to inch up our stop loss to $39.45. More aggressive traders may want to leave their stop under $39.00. Readers should note that while volume was low today the short-term technical indicators are turning bearish. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point but use caution. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $53 target. FYI: BOBJ remains a takeover target.
Picked on May 21 at $40.15
CIT Group - CIT - close: 61.13 change: -0.03 stop: 58.49
It's Tuesday and we still don't see any changes from our weekend comments for CIT. The stock has been trading sideways in a relatively narrow range. Readers can choose to buy dips near $60 or wait for a new high. We want to wait for a rally past the February 2007 high so we're suggesting a trigger to go long the stock at $61.75. If triggered we are aiming for the $67.00-70.00 range. Currently the Point & Figure chart forecasts an $84 target. More conservative traders may want to exit near $65.00, which could be round-number resistance.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 17.00 change: -0.05 stop: 15.85
Shares of EMC barely budged today. The stock clung to the $17.00 level. We're not suggesting new positions at this time but a dip (or bounce) near the rising 10-dma could be an entry point. The P&F chart has seen its bullish price target rise from $24.00 to $25.50 over the last week. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range.
Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Fomento Economico - FMX - cls: 40.20 chg: -0.14 stop: 37.99
The rebound from FMX's intraday lows on Tuesday looks like a new entry point to buy it. However, we're noticing a new short-term trend of lower highs. Therefore we're suggesting that readers wait for a rise past $40.65 or $41.00 before opening new positions. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop toward $39.00. Our target is the $44.00-45.00 range.
Picked on June 03 at $40.44
Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 16.16 chg: +0.21 stop: 15.23*new*
We are surprised to see GNA's relative strength. The stock rose another 1.3% and set a new closing higher (not an intraday high). We are raising our stop loss to breakeven at $15.23. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop toward the rising 10-dma. Our target is the $17.50-18.00 range. This remains a higher-risk, speculative play. Some of the technical indicators are suggesting the next move "should" be down.
Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 42.05 chg: -0.35 stop: 39.61
There was nothing unusual about KSU's profit taking today. Watch for a bounce near $41.00 or $40.00 as a new entry point for long positions. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range. Currently the P&F chart points to a $45 target.
Picked on May 17 at $39.61
Pinnacle Enter. - PNK - cls: 30.76 chg: -0.33 stop: 29.95
PNK failed to see any follow through on Monday's bullish breakout. This is worrisome but we're still on the sidelines. We're going to stick to our plan and use a trigger to open positions at $31.35. More conservative traders may want to use a trigger above $31.50. If triggered our target is the $34.50-35.00 range. Currently the P&F chart for PNK is still bearish and points to a $19 target.
Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Raytheon - RTN - close: 56.00 chg: -0.60 stop: 53.95
The DFI defense index was one of the few sector indices to close in the green on Tuesday. Unfortunately, RTN did not participate in any relative strength. The stock spiked lower at the open and churned sideways near $56 all day. We are expecting a dip toward what should be support near $55.00. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range.
Picked on June 03 at $56.17
St. Mary Land - SM - cls: 38.92 chg: +0.45 stop: 35.99
There is no slow down in SM's rally. The stock posted another gain, up 1.1%, to a new five-month high. Our target is the $43.50-45.00 range. We would expect some resistance near $40.00 and again near $40.65 but overall the breaking from its trading range and above its 200-dma is very bullish.
Picked on June 04 at $38.51
Superior Energy - SPN - cls: 39.63 chg: -0.70 stop: 37.99
The technical indicators are really starting to turn bearish for SPN. If the stock doesn't bounce from here we would probably consider an early exit. More conservative traders may want to tighten stop losses now. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is the $42.50 mark. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $65 target.
Picked on May 13 at $38.42
Trico Marine - TRMA - cls: 42.20 chg: -0.23 stop: 40.45
TRMA spent Tuesday's session consolidating sideways above the $42.00 level, which is acting as short-term support. A bounce from here could be used as a new entry point for longs. Our target is the $46.50-47.50 range. The P&F chart points to a $58 target.
Picked on June 03 at $42.78
Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 29.39 chg: -0.03 stop: 27.95
We have nothing new to report on for WIRE. Shares traded sideways and closed virtually unchanged. Wait and watch for a bounce near $29.00 as a new entry point. An alternative entry would be to look for a new relative high over $30.45. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $28.50. The Point & Figure chart suggests a $46 price target. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range.
Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Short Play Updates
Archer Daniels - ADM - cls: 34.49 chg: +0.02 stop: 36.11
ADM is still trying to bounce but it didn't make it very far on Tuesday. We are still expecting a rebound toward $35.00. A failed rally near $35.00 would actually be an attractive entry point for shorts. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range but we do expect some support and a bounce near $32.75-33.00.
Picked on June 03 at $34.59
MarineMax - HZO - cls: 21.20 chg: +0.01 stop: 21.51
There is no change from our previous comments on HZO. The stock closed virtually unchanged. We are still warning readers that the stock looks poised to move higher but remains under the most recent peak. More conservative traders may just want to exit early right here to cut their losses. We're going to stick it out and see what happens but we're not suggesting new positions. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze.
Picked on May 29 at $19.95
Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 24.73 chg: -0.42 stop: 25.76
SPLS lost 1.6% and did so on above average volume, which is bearish. The intraday dip under $24.50 looked like a new entry point for shorts. Unfortunately, the stock managed a late day rebound. The overall trend is bearish. If there is no follow through on the afternoon bounce then readers might want to jump in. Our target is the $22.00 level.
Picked on May 27 at $24.40
U S T Inc. - UST - close: 53.40 chg: -0.20 stop: 55.65
UST continues to under perform. The stock lost 0.3% and slid back toward its recent lows. We remain bearish but a bounce and failed rally under $54.00-54.50 can be used as a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops closer to the $55.00 level. The P&F chart has a bearish signal with a $47 target. We have two targets. Our conservative target is $52.60-52.50. Our more aggressive target is the $50.50-50.00 range. FYI: More aggressive traders might want to give UST more room to maneuver and leave their stop above $56 or its 200-dma.
Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Closed Long Plays
Closed Short Plays