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Long Play Updates

Aracruz Celulose - ARA - cls: 58.90 chg: -0.75 stop: 57.99

We are issuing another warning on ARA. The stock appears to have support near $58.00 but we are growing very concerned with the bearish tone lately. Today marks the second day in a row that ARA has produced a failed rally near its 10-dma. More conservative traders will want to strongly consider just exiting early right here to cut their losses.

Picked on June 03 at $62.00
Change since picked: - 3.10
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand

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CIT Group - CIT - close: 59.25 change: -0.99 stop: 58.49

It's not looking good for CIT. Shares dropped 1.6% and closed under the $60.00 mark. The stock looks poised to breakdown under support in the $58.50-59.00 zone. We're still on the sidelines suggesting readers wait for a rally past $61.75. If triggered at $61.75 we are aiming for the $67.00-70.00 range. Currently the Point & Figure chart forecasts an $84 target. More conservative traders may want to exit near $65.00, which could be round-number resistance.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 16.43 change: -0.50 stop: 15.85

After an impressive run up in EMC traders didn't hesitate to do some profit taking. The stock lost almost 3% and broke down under the 10-dma. More conservative traders might want to bail out now given the market's bearish tone the last couple of days. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. The P&F chart has seen its bullish price target rise from $24.00 to $25.50 over the last week. Our target is the $18.50-20.00 range.

Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Change since picked: - 0.03
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 26.6 million

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Fomento Economico - FMX - cls: 38.40 chg: -0.86 stop: 37.99

The ADR shares of FMX were not safe from today's market-wide sell-off. The stock lost almost 2.2% and plunged toward short-term support near $38.00. If there is any weakness tomorrow we would expect to be stopped out at $37.99. The MACD on the daily chart has produced a new sell signal. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on June 03 at $40.44
Change since picked: - 2.04
Earnings Date 07/28/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 40.28 chg: -1.11 stop: 39.61

Railroad stocks were one of the worst performing sectors on Thursday. The Dow Jones railroad index derailed for a 3.2% decline. KSU followed with a 2.6% loss. KSU is nearing round-number support/resistance at the $40.00 mark. More conservative traders may want to exit early or tighten their stops. We're not suggesting new positions at this time.

Picked on May 17 at $39.61
Change since picked: + 0.67
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 716 thousand

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Pinnacle Enter. - PNK - cls: 29.47 chg: -0.59 stop: 29.95

The market weakness pushed PNK to a 1.9% loss and the MACD on the daily chart is nearing a new sell signal. The stock's slide paused near its 50-dma and the bottom of its gap higher from May, which should be support. We're still on the sidelines here waiting for a breakout over $31.00 (our suggested trigger is $31.35).

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 08/07/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 685 thousand

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 56.05 chg: -0.86 stop: 53.95

With RTN at new highs the stock was a target for profit taking. Overall shares only lost 1.5%, which isn't that bad. We would wait and watch for a bounce near support around the $55 level before considering new positions. Traders might want to think about raising their stop loss toward $55.00. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $56.17
Change since picked: - 0.12
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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St. Mary Land - SM - cls: 37.46 chg: -1.23 stop: 35.99

Ouch! SM suffered an ugly day of trading. The stock produced a bearish failed rally under $39.00 and then plunged to a 3.1% loss near $37.50. This looks very bearish. More conservative traders may want to exit right now to limit their losses. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 04 at $38.51
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 539 thousand

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Trico Marine - TRMA - cls: 41.23 chg: -0.55 stop: 40.45

The consolidation in TRMA continues. The stock is now down four days in a row. If we don't see a bounce tomorrow it might be time to abandon ship. We're not suggesting new positions.

Picked on June 03 at $42.78
Change since picked: - 1.55
Earnings Date 08/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 268 thousand

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Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 29.32 chg: -0.25 stop: 27.95

WIRE held up relatively well. The stock only lost 0.8%. We are not suggesting new positions at this time but an alternative entry would be to look for a new relative high over $30.45. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops toward $28.50. The Point & Figure chart suggests a $46 price target. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range.

Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Change since picked: + 0.06
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

Archer Daniels - ADM - cls: 33.70 chg: -0.40 stop: 35.55*new*

ADM sank to another new relative low today. The breakdown under the $34.00 level is bearish and volume was above average, which is good news for the bears. We are adjusting our stop loss to $35.55. Our target is the $30.50-30.00 range but we do expect some support and a bounce near $32.75-33.00.

Picked on June 03 at $34.59
Change since picked: - 0.88
Earnings Date 07/31/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.6 million

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MarineMax - HZO - cls: 20.54 chg: -0.48 stop: 21.51

We are repeating our suggestion from Wednesday that this looks like a new entry point for shorts. More conservative traders may feel more comfortable waiting for a decline under $20.50 or under $20.00 again before initiating positions. Our target is the $17.75-17.50 range. It is VERY important that traders realize HZO has a high amount of short interest. The latest data put short interest at $28% of the 16.8 million-share float. That's a lot of short interest and a small float. Unfortunately, that can be a recipe for a big short squeeze.

Picked on May 29 at $19.95
Change since picked: + 0.59
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 354 thousand

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Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 24.01 chg: -0.44 stop: 25.76

Shares of SPLS just posted their fourth decline in a row following last Friday's failed rally at the 50-dma. An oversold bounce near $24.00 would not be unexpected but the trend definitely looks bearish here. Our target is the $22.00 level.

Picked on May 27 at $24.40
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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U S T Inc. - UST - close: 51.50 chg: -0.77 stop: 55.11

UST sank to another new relative low on Thursday. Shares closed down 1.47% on above average volume. UST has already hit our target in the $52.60-52.50 range. Now we're aiming for the $50.50-50.00 zone.

Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Change since picked: - 3.46
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 965 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

Business Objects - BOBJ - cls: 39.10 chg: -0.63 stop: 39.45

BOBJ hit our stop loss at $39.45 today. Market weakness combined with a bearish failed rally under $40.00 produced a 1.5% decline. The stock sank toward what could be short-term support near $39.00. We wouldn't bet on it.

Picked on May 21 at $40.15
Change since picked: - 1.05
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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Gerdau Ameristeel - GNA - cls: 15.37 chg: -0.36 stop: 15.23

Abandon ship! We are suggesting an early exit in GNA. The stock has produced a bearish failed rally and breakdown in the same day. The next stop looks like the $15 area and probably lower. Aggressive traders might want to consider shorting GNA with a stop above today's high but be aware that would be a high-risk play even though the stock looks poised to move lower.

Picked on May 20 at $15.23
Change since picked: + 0.14
Earnings Date 07/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 552 thousand
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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