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Long Play Updates

Amphenol - APH - cls: 34.97 change: -0.54 stop: 34.69

We don't see any changes from our Monday update on APH. We're still urging readers to be careful here. The lack of follow through on Friday's rally is bad news and now APH has broken down under its 50-dma. The stock looks poised to challenge short-term support near $34.75 soon and we could be stopped out tomorrow.

Picked on June 10 at $35.74
Change since picked: - 0.77
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million

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Aracruz Celulose - ARA - cls: 61.30 chg: -1.82 stop: 57.99

After two big days it was time for a little profit taking in ARA. Shares pulled back about 2.8% but did so on big volume, which is a warning sign for the bulls. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops! Our target is the $68.00-70.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $62.00
Change since picked: - 0.70
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand

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EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 16.30 change: -0.33 stop: 15.99

We do not see any changes from our previous comments. EMC continues to consolidate lower. The pull back has turned all the technical indicators bearish. Shares are nearing potential support near $16.20 and then again near $16.00. Considering the market's weakness today more conservative traders may just want to abandon ship right here and cut their losses.

Picked on May 27 at $16.46
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 07/17/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 26.6 million

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Fomento Economico - FMX - cls: 38.73 chg: -0.37 stop: 37.99

There was no follow through today on the recent bounce. In our book that's bearish and shares look poised to retest support near $38.00. More conservative traders may just want to cut their losses here with an early exit.

Picked on June 03 at $40.44
Change since picked: - 1.71
Earnings Date 07/28/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million

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McGrath RentCorp. - MGRC - cls: 31.85 chg: -0.15 stop: 31.29*new*

Warning! MGRC displayed relative strength on Tuesday. More importantly the stock traded above resistance and hit our trigger to buy it at $32.31. The bad news is that the stock failed to maintain those gains and now today's session looks like a bull trap and bearish failed rally pattern. We are not suggesting new positions at this time. If you were triggered today consider using a very tight stop loss to limit your risk. It seems very peculiar that MGRC would breakout intraday to a new 18-month high with the market so weak. We are raising our stop loss to $31.29. We would only suggest new bullish positions if MGRC traded over $32.50. Our target is the $36.00-37.50 range. The P&F chart is bullish with a $50.00 target. FYI: It's worth noting that MGRC only has a 23.4 million-share float and short interest is close to 7.5% of the float. A breakout to new highs could spark some short covering!

Picked on June 12 at $32.31
Change since picked: - 0.40
Earnings Date 07/30/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 92 thousand

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Raytheon - RTN - close: 55.82 chg: -0.05 stop: 53.95

Military contractor RTN continues to look vulnerable to more profit taking. There were two rebound attempts today and they both failed. We are expecting a dip towards $55.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early to limit their losses right here. Our target is the $59.75-60.00 range.

Picked on June 03 at $56.17
Change since picked: - 0.35
Earnings Date 07/25/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.3 million

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St. Mary Land - SM - cls: 37.72 chg: +0.05 stop: 36.95

SM displayed some relative strength on Tuesday in spite of a pull back in crude oil. The intraday chart looks a lot more bullish than the daily. Readers might want to consider new bullish positions on a move over today's high near $38.12 or over $38.50. Our target is the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on June 04 at $38.51
Change since picked: - 0.79
Earnings Date 08/02/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 539 thousand

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Encore Wire Corp. - WIRE - cls: 29.31 chg: -0.31 stop: 27.95

We don't see any changes from our previous updates on WIRE. The stock is still churning sideways. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward Friday's lows near $28.70 (or maybe $28.50). We would wait for a new breakout over $30.00 or over $30.45 before considering new positions. The Point & Figure chart suggests a $46 price target. We are targeting the $32.50-33.00 range.

Picked on May 27 at $29.26
Change since picked: + 0.05
Earnings Date 07/24/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 383 thousand
 

Short Play Updates

AMB Properties - AMB - cls: 54.97 change: -1.24 stop: 58.26

The REIT sector continued to plunge lower on Tuesday. AMB lost 2.2% and closed at its lows for the session, which is usually a bearish signal for tomorrow. There is some support near $54.35 but our target is the $52.00-50.00 range.

Picked on June 11 at $ 56.21
Change since picked: - 1.24
Earnings Date 07/11/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 680 thousand

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Bolt Tech. - BTJ - cls: 35.95 chg: -3.21 stop: 42.01

Wow! We thought BTJ looked bearish but we were not expecting an 8% decline today. Volume came in above average on the profit taking. Shares dipped to $35.70 intraday. Our target is the $35.50-35.00 range. If you were fortunate enough to open positions this morning it might pay off to exit early. BTJ is probably due for some sort of oversold bounce soon. Traders might want to tighten their stops toward the $40 level.

Picked on June 11 at $ 39.16
Change since picked: - 3.21
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 445 thousand

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Flamel Tech. - FLML - cls: 24.61 change: -0.39 stop: 26.05

Today's 1.5% decline in FLML looks like another bearish entry point to short the stock. If we had any complaints it would be about the volume today, which came in below average. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops a bit toward $25.75. Our target is the $21.00-20.00 range. The P&F chart points to an $18 target but does show potential support near $23.00.

Picked on June 10 at $24.25
Change since picked: + 0.36
Earnings Date 08/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 456 thousand

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Healthcare REIT - HCN - cls: 40.84 chg: -0.89 stop: 43.01

HCN dropped over 2% and closed at new five-month lows. We don't see any changes from our Monday night comments. There is potential support near $40.00 but our target is the $38.50-38.00 range. More conservative traders may want to use a tighter stop loss. FYI: In the news today, after the closing bell, LifeCare Holdings announced a new deal with HCN but we didn't see any after hours impact.

Picked on June 11 at $ 41.73
Change since picked: - 0.89
Earnings Date 08/06/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 741 thousand

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Staples Inc. - SPLS - cls: 24.31 chg: -0.09 stop: 25.76

SPLS is not showing as much weakness as we would have expected but we do note that shares produced another failed rally today. This is the third failed rally in the last three days near $24.75. This could be used as a new entry point for shorts or you could wait for a new relative low before opening positions.

Picked on May 27 at $24.40
Change since picked: - 0.09
Earnings Date 07/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million

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U S T Inc. - UST - close: 53.44 chg: -0.91 stop: 55.11

Thankfully there was no follow through higher after yesterday's broker upgrade-inspired spike higher in UST. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stops toward yesterday's highs. We're not suggesting new positions at this time. UST has already hit our target in the $52.60-52.50 range. Now we're aiming for the $50.50-50.00 zone.

Picked on May 23 at $54.96
Change since picked: - 1.52
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 965 thousand
 

Closed Long Plays

CIT Group - CIT - close: 58.17 change: -1.01 stop: 58.49

CIT has continued to show relative weakness. The stock lost 1.7% after producing another failed rally near $59.50. The close under its 50-dma this afternoon looks bearish. As a matter of fact, CIT looks so bearish here that we're going to add it as a new short play. Our bullish strategy was to go long at $61.75, which hasn't occurred.

Picked on June xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Change since picked: + 0.00
Earnings Date 07/18/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.3 million

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Kansas City Southern - KSU - cls: 39.45 chg: -1.21 stop: 39.61

Ouch! The railroad stocks turned in one of the market's worst performances today. The DJUSRR index lost 2.4%. Shares of KSU plunged almost 3% and broke down under the $40.00 level. We would have been stopped out at $39.61. Our target was the $43.50-44.00 range.

Picked on May 17 at $39.61
Change since picked: - 0.16
Earnings Date 07/26/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 716 thousand

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Micron Tech. - MU - cls: 11.96 change: -0.03 stop: 11.85

MU hit our stop loss at $11.85 this morning. The stock managed a rebound but is still trading with a short-term bearish trend of lower highs.

Picked on June 10 at $12.35
Change since picked: - 0.39
Earnings Date 06/27/07 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 27.9 million
 

Closed Short Plays

None
 

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